Dynasty Data: Do Rushing QBs Have Shorter Careers?

Photo: Imagn Images

Do running quarterbacks have shorter NFL careers than non-running quarterbacks? Should you be drafting Josh Allen at 1.01 in a dynasty startup? Should you feel good about spending a Top 5 dynasty pick on Jalen Hurts or Lamar Jackson?

In this Friday’s Dynasty Data article, we will explore the numbers in depth to determine how concerned we should be about the career longevity of some of the elite young dynasty quarterbacks.

Quarterback Fantasy Rushing Percentage

We need numbers to work with instead of vague definitions like “running quarterback.” Let’s start with a simple metric that tells us what percentage of each quarterback’s total career fantasy points came on the ground (rushing yardage and rushing touchdowns). For example, Justin Fields has scored 306 of his 653 career fantasy points on the ground. 306 divided by 653 tells us what percentage of Fields’ fantasy points have been generated by rushing — 46.9%. 

The data set used in this article is all quarterback stats from the past 25 years of NFL history (1999 to 2023). 

Most Run-Heavy

The percentage of fantasy points scored via the run gives us a metric to use as a jumping-off point for our analysis. Let’s calculate it for every quarterback who has entered the NFL in the past 25 years and see who the most run-heavy fantasy producers have been (minimum 500 career fantasy points).

At this point in our data exploration, we are looking for trends. Here is what stands out at the top of our most run-heavy list:

1. It includes important names. The first thing that stands out about our list is how highly some of 2024’s most valuable dynasty quarterbacks rank overall. Three quarterbacks going in the Top 5 overall in Superflex startup drafts have scored 32% or more of their career fantasy points with their legs - - Josh Allen (1.01), Jalen Hurts (1.04), and Lamar Jackson (1.05). Kyler Murray (2.07) is also near the top of the list and is being drafted as a dynasty QB1. These are historically high numbers of rushing productions. If we decide we should be hesitant to draft quarterbacks who rank highly in this metric, it will have a major impact on how we approach the most important pick of our entire dynasty draft.
2. Lack of longevity. The second thing that leaps off the page is that none of the retired players who ranked highly in this metric (Mike Vick, Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III, Vince Young, and Colin Kaepernick) had long NFL careers. Vick had a three-season stretch of productive years in his early 30s with the Eagles, but even then, he averaged just 11.7 games per season and never played more than 10 games in any year after age 31. Newton had one full season as a starter after the age of 29 (an entirely forgettable 2020 season with the Patriots at age 31). The other three were out of the NFL early.
3. Sample size issues. The last thing that stands out is the fact we are going to have to be careful about coming to any overly strong conclusions because the sample size is incredibly limited. Very few top quarterbacks in recent NFL history scored 30%+ of their fantasy points on the ground. The specific names involved further emphasize that every individual career is unique, and we need to tread carefully when trying to infer the future outcomes of one group based on the results of another. In this case, the extenuating circumstances surrounding some of these careers limit the usefulness of any comparison. Lamar Jackson and Michael Vick scored a similar percentage of their fantasy points with their legs, but Jackson is not going to miss multiple years of his prime due to spending time in jail. Josh Allen and Colin Kaepernick also scored a similar percentage of points with their legs, but Allen is not going to get blackballed (allegedly) by the league for taking a strong political stance. Selection bias (shoutout to Adam Harstad) is also an ever-present problem in these sorts of analyses.