DraftKings Thursday Showdown: Week 16

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Scripting & Roster Construction

Thursday night's game carries significant AFC playoff implications as the 9-5 Denver Broncos travel to Los Angeles to take on the 8-6 Chargers. These two teams appear to be heading in opposite directions: the Broncos are riding a four-game winning streak, while the Chargers have lost three of their last four. However, this contrast can largely be attributed to their respective schedules. The Broncos have faced teams with losing records during their streak, while the Chargers have battled teams with winning records. On paper, this is an even matchup, with Vegas projecting a narrow 22-20 victory for the home-field Chargers.

These teams last met in Week 6 in Colorado, where the Chargers defeated the Broncos 23-16, holding Denver scoreless until the fourth quarter. After analyzing the matchups, recent quarterback performances, injuries (outlined below), and other variables, I'm projecting another narrow win for the Chargers on Thursday night.

For lineup construction, I recommend rostering at least three, possibly four, Chargers in your builds. As for the Broncos, targeting one of their under-the-radar options is a solid strategy to differentiate your lineups. Finally, consider leaving some salary on the table this week. With these offenses distributing touches across many players, only a few higher-priced options truly justify their cost.

Injury Roundup

The Broncos will be without running back Jaleel McLaughlin, who suffered a quad injury last week against the Colts. McLaughlin's absence should open the door for more playing time for rookie Audric Estime, a Notre Dame product averaging 4.4 yards per carry on limited action this season. The only other notable injury for Denver is cornerback Riley Moss, who will miss the game with a knee injury. Kris Abrams-Draine will make his second consecutive start in Moss's absence. The rookie from Missouri held his own against the Colts last week, though facing the Chargers' stronger offense will be a more significant challenge.

The Chargers are expected to be without two key defensive backs on Thursday. Cam Hart remains in concussion protocol, and Elijah Molden (knee) is doubtful after missing practice all week. Molden's absence will be especially impactful, as he ranks 15th out of 160 safeties on Pro Football Focus this season. These injuries could benefit the Broncos' passing game, but predicting which Denver receiver will capitalize is difficult, given their tendency to spread targets.

On offense, the Chargers will once again be without tight end Will Dissly, marking his second missed game. Stone Smartt will step into the starting role for a second straight week. After being a popular DFS play last weekend, Smartt remains a solid value option at only $4.2K for Thursday's showdown.

Captain Considerations

1. Ladd McConkey
2. Courtland Sutton
3. Stone Smartt