NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.
This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.
The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.
Game Scripting & Roster Construction
We have an NFC West showdown on Thursday night as the 7-6 Los Angeles Rams travel to Levi's Stadium to take on the 6-7 San Francisco 49ers. The Rams are emerging as sneaky playoff contenders, bouncing back from a rough 1-4 start to their season. Since their Week 6 bye, Los Angeles has gone 6-2, securing quality wins against the Vikings, Seahawks, and Bills—each a potential playoff team. Meanwhile, the 49ers are trending in the opposite direction, losing three of their last four games and managing only two wins against teams with a winning record this season. Despite their struggles, Vegas oddsmakers still favor the Niners, projecting a close contest with a 26-23 victory for the home team.
When it comes to roster construction for this matchup, there are several viable approaches. Based on the Vegas line, an even build (3:3 or 4:2) is the most likely distribution to optimize your chances in tournament formats. However, it’s also possible that one team dominates due to specific matchups. The Rams boast a potent offense, and the 49ers’ injuries on defense (outlined below) could leave them vulnerable. On the flip side, the Rams' defense has struggled, allowing fewer than 20 points only twice this season, meaning even a banged-up 49ers offense could find some success.
From my perspective, the Rams are poised to win this game outright. Their strong offensive unit contrasts with a 49ers team hampered by key injuries on offense and defense. As such, I recommend building your lineups with an even distribution (3:3 or 4:2), leaning slightly toward the Rams to capitalize on their offensive advantage.
Injury Roundup
Isaac Guerendo is planning to play according to Adam Schefter.
The Rams enter Thursday night's contest with minimal injuries to report. Tyler Higbee, who practiced every day this week, will remain sidelined as he continues to recover from offseason knee surgery. Colby Parkinson will start in his absence once again. Additionally, the Rams will be without starting cornerback Cobie Durant, who has started every game for Los Angeles this season. However, Durant's absence may not significantly impact the 49ers' passing game, as he has been far from a shutdown corner, ranking 101st out of 213 cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus.
On the other hand, the 49ers' injury situation is far more concerning. Veteran offensive lineman Trent Williams, an 11-time Pro Bowler, will miss his fourth consecutive game with a knee injury. The 49ers have struggled without Williams anchoring their line, posting a record of 49-28 when he starts compared to just 4-8 when he is inactive. His absence will undoubtedly affect the run game, which is already depleted with 4th-string running back Patrick Taylor Jr. likely stepping into the starting role. Isaac Guerendo is trending toward inactive after injuring himself last Sunday against the Bears. To make matters worse, starting guard Ben Bartch is headed to injured reserve after suffering an ankle sprain last weekend.
On defense, San Francisco will be without safety Malik Mustapha, who is dealing with a chest injury, while linebacker Nick Bosa is questionable with a hip/oblique issue. If Bosa is ruled out, it’s safe to give Matthew Stafford and the Rams’ passing attack a notable boost in fantasy value.
Captain Considerations
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