NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.
This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.
The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.
Game Scripting & Roster Construction
Just like last week, when I highlighted the puzzling Vegas line between the Rams and Vikings, the odds for this game are equally perplexing. Oddsmakers are projecting a close contest, with the Jets narrowly edging out the Texans 22-20 at MetLife Stadium. However, the Jets come into this matchup on a five-game losing streak and missing several key starters (details below), yet they're still slight favorites over the 6-2 Texans. So, what’s going on here? I can’t quite explain the line, which is why I'm inclined to roster more Jets than Texans in my lineups.
Both defenses are strong. The Texans rank just behind the league-best Titans in total yards allowed per game (280.3), and the Jets are just behind, allowing 286.8 yards per game. With two top-five defenses on the field, Vegas isn’t expecting much offense here. The Jets haven’t scored more than 24 points all season, and the Texans will be without Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs—the latter out for the season with an ACL tear suffered on Sunday. For Showdown contests, it might be wise to include at least one kicker and one defense in your lineup while leaving some salary unspent to set your roster apart from the competition.
Injury Roundup
As mentioned above, the Texans took a significant hit last week when Stefon Diggs went down with a torn ACL against the Colts. Houston has also been without their top receiver, Nico Collins, since Week 5, leaving Tank Dell as their WR1. Beyond the receiving corps, the Texans’ offense will miss Left Guard Jarrett Patterson, while their defense is down two key starters: Safety Jimmie Ward and Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair. These defensive losses could be costly, as the Texans have already allowed 20 or more points in 7 of their 8 games this season.
On the Jets’ sideline, it’s practically a M.A.S.H. unit—they’ll be without six starters on Thursday night, including Aaron Lazard (chest) for the second straight week. The bigger concern, however, is the absence of several key defensive players. The Jets will be without two safeties (Tony Adams and Ashtyn Davis), defensive lineman Leki Fotu, and five-time Pro Bowler C.J. Mosley at linebacker. This extensive injury list could give the Texans a boost on offense, though Vegas oddsmakers still predict a game marred by offensive struggles on both sides come Thursday.
Captain Considerations
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