NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.
This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.
The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.
Game Scripting & Roster Construction
Fresh off their first loss of the season to the Lions, the 5-1 Minnesota Vikings head to Southern California to face the Rams on the night of Cooper Kupp’s long-awaited return from injury. Kupp will no doubt boost the Rams' chances of turning their season around. After starting 2-4 with a makeshift receiving corps, the Rams will welcome Kupp back on Thursday, with Puka Nacua expected to follow in a week or two. Oddsmakers believe Kupp's return will make a difference, as the Vikings are only slight road favorites, with a projected 26-23 win in what’s expected to be a relatively high-scoring game. The Vikings rank 4th in passing rate over expectation, which favors their passing attack, while the Rams rank lower in this statistic, likely due to Kupp and Nacua's extended absence this season.
That said, the Vegas line is curious to me—why would a 5-1 team, whose only loss was a heartbreaker to a strong Detroit Lions squad, be such a small favorite against the Rams, who have allowed 24 or more points in all but one game this season? It seems illogical, but I've learned that Vegas often knows more than we do. This feels like a prime "get-right" spot for the Rams, and I’ll be building lineups with that in mind. At a minimum, I recommend rostering three Rams players, if not four. This approach should help minimize duplicate lineups and reduce the chances of having to share prize pools.
Injury Roundup
Minnesota’s biggest question on the injury report is whether star tight end T.J. Hockenson will make his season debut on Thursday. Reports suggest there is a "decent" chance that Hockenson will play, and if he does, it will certainly add another dimension to Minnesota’s passing game. Additionally, guard Dalton Risner (back) could also be activated from injured reserve for this matchup, a welcome return considering the struggles of his replacement, Ed Ingram, this season. On the defensive side, starting linebacker Blake Cashman (toe) will miss his second consecutive game.
As for the Rams, they’ve already ruled out three players for Thursday’s game: linebacker Troy Reeder (hamstring), wide receiver Jordan Whittington (shoulder), and offensive lineman Joe Noteboom (ankle). While each is a starter, none of these absences are expected to have significant fantasy impact, so they won’t require further discussion here.
Captain Considerations
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