DraftKings Sunday Showdown Week 20

Disclaimer:

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel's strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median forecast, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Scripting & Roster Construction

This is a rematch of a lopsided victory for the Ravens back in Week 4, in which Baltimore won easily 35-10 thanks to Derrick Henry’s 199 rushing yards. This week’s game is expected to be much more competitive, as Baltimore is a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 51.5 points.

This is a tricky slate as the targets are relatively narrow in terms of players to target. So much of the production of these offenses comes from the two quarterbacks, who are extremely expensive this week. Thankfully, the injury to Zay Flowers does open up enough doors to competitively build a lineup by taking two of the three stars in this game with Henry, Jackson, and Allen, but ultimately, this slate is likely going to be won based on who nails the $2k or less players. There are certainly some intriguing options, but each comes with its own set of risks, which we will break down throughout the article.

Injury Roundup

Zay Flowers is doubtful this week with a knee injury. This opens up significant doors for the Ravens in terms of where the offensive production is going to come from. While the tight ends are likely the most obvious answer, there are some cheap wide receivers in Baltimore that, if they can get a few targets, could pay off. We will talk through the rest of the article.  

Ray Davis remains in concussion protocol as of Friday. While Davis has not seen a significant amount of snaps, it would narrow the running back room to James Cook and Ty Johnson and give a small boost to both players.

Captain Considerations

1. Josh Allen
2. Derrick Henry
3. Lamar Jackson
4. Mark Andrews

Baltimore Ravens

Quarterback

Lamar Jackson (Captain or Flex)

Picking between Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson is a difficult choice this week as a narrative could be created in a number of different ways to argue for either side. However, Allen does come out ever so slightly on top this week simply because he’s going to be asked to do more for the Bills. Jackson has had one of the best seasons in NFL history, throwing for 41 touchdowns and just four interceptions. However, this is a team that showed last week that if they can just grind out a win, they’re comfortable doing that as well, as Jackson threw the ball just 21 times last week. The good news for this offense is that Jackson ran the ball more than he had in any game since Week 1 this season, as he ran 15 times for 85 yards, which is going to be critical that you get production out of his legs this week and potentially even a rushing touchdown which is the downside here. While Jackson had 915 rushing yards throughout the season, he did have just four rushing touchdowns on the season. Jackson has as high of a floor as any player on this slate based on his rushing and passing ability, but for him to reach captain value, you’re going to either need a rushing touchdown, 100-yards rushing, or a 3-4 passing touchdown performance in a Ravens blowout victory.

Running Backs

Derrick Henry (Captain or FLEX)
Justice Hill (FLEX)

In terms of slate-breaking ability, Derrick Henry is near the top this week. Henry has 130 rushing yards or more in four straight games while scoring five rushing touchdowns over his last three games. For Henry to work out this week as a captain, he’s likely going to need another 125+ yard performance due to his lack of involvement in the passing game. Buffalo has struggled against opposing running backs, as they’ve allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to the position this season. While their recent stats have looked better, they’ve faced some of the league’s worst rushing attacks in recent weeks, such as Denver, New England, a Jets team that had mostly quit, and New England.

Justice Hill is intriguing this week due to his pass-catching ability. Hill has four receptions or more in three of his last four games, and if there is a scenario where the game script leans towards a pass-heavy approach, Hill should be heavily featured this week, especially with the limited options given Zay Flowers’ injury.

Wide Receivers

Rashod Bateman (Fade)
Nelson Agholor (FLEX)
Tylan Wallace (Flex)

The Ravens receiving room is an absolute mess with no Zay Flowers. While on the surface, Rashod Bateman seems to be the player who should get the most targets, he had just two targets last week and surprisingly played just 49% of the snaps, which was the third-fewest of the season for the receiver. That’s obviously not a good sign when DraftKings is asking us to pay $7,400 for Bateman this week because he scored a touchdown last week. There’s certainly a possibility that he has a big game, but he will also likely draw Christian Benford, who is one strength in Buffalo’s secondary this season.

Tylan Wallace at just $1,000 is interesting this week. He led the receivers in snaps for the second straight week, as he played on 53% of snaps last week, and while the production hasn’t been there, it could be coming. Wallace saw just two targets last week but did connect on a 21-yard pass for his lone completion. With Baltimore, you’re not going to get a player who has the traditional 8+ targets, but instead, you’re looking at who can make a big play. Wallace is averaging 17.5 yards per catch against a defense that has significant safety concerns, as both Damar Hamlin and Taylor Rapp have been liabilities in coverage this season.

Nelson Agholor is a game script-dependent receiver. If the Ravens fall behind, expect them to play more of a three-wide receiver look, which should get Agholor more than the 27% of snaps that he saw last week. Agholor is another deep play receiver similar to Wallace, who is cheap at just $2,000 this week.

Tight Ends

Mark Andrews (Captain or Flex)

Andrews is a touchdown-dependent option this week. Prior to last week, Andrews had scored a touchdown in six straight games, as he had become one of the most reliable options at the position to find the end zone. However, last week, he saw just three targets, and he was unable to find the score. Andrews is the one player who is cheap enough to create variation from the big three on this slate (Allen, Henry, Jackson) while still having enough upside to keep up with them. At $6,600, he’s a tremendous flex player, while $9,900 provides $7,000+ savings compared to the big three. If Andrews were to find the end-zone for multiple scores, he could keep up with those elite running backs and quarterbacks and then allow you to spend up elsewhere, potentially even fitting all three into a single lineup, which I suspect some people will try to do.

Isaiah Likely (Flex)

With no Zay Flowers, Likely is the possession receiver for the Ravens. Last week, he led the team in targets, yards, and snaps. None of these numbers are overly impressive, as he saw just four targets, had 53 yards, and 80% of snaps, but the game script was a run-heavy game script for the Ravens and, therefore, should potentially increase this week. Likely, he’s affordable at $5,600, but he probably does not have the upside that you’re looking for in taking him as a captain, as he has just three total red zone targets over his last ten games. Most of his red zone volume came early in the season while Mark Andrews was still recovering from his injury.

Under the Radar

Anthony Miller (FLEX)

Anthony Miller caught all three of his targets last week and is just $800. He’s the prototypical skillset that could most easily fill in for Zay Flowers but has not seen the snaps that typically you would want in a showdown lineup as he was on the field for just nine total snaps last week. It’s a high-risk punt play, but at this price point, you’re essentially taking a dart throw on a player who had a target on 33% of his snap. If those snaps increase, it won’t be a direct correlation to sustain 33%, but he should see more snaps.

Buffalo Bills

Quarterback

Josh Allen (Captain or FLEX)

In terms of upside, no player on this slate has as much upside as Josh Allen. Facing one of the league’s best-run defenses, it seems unlikely that the Bills are going to have much success running the ball this week, and therefore, they’re going to rely heavily on Allen. There is some risk with Allen, however, as he had his worst game of the season against the Ravens back in Week 4, throwing for just 180 yards and running for 21 in a 35-10 blowout. Baltimore’s secondary has improved over the second half of the season since they replaced Marcus Williams with Ar’Darius Washington at safety, but Washington is one of the smallest players in the NFL at 5’8’’ and 180 pounds, so the Ravens do give up a little bit in terms of run-stopping ability as Washington is unlikely to be able to tackle the 6’5’’ 240 pound Josh Allen if Allen gets to the second-level. During the year, Baltimore is allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks as they’re facing the most pass attempts in the NFL, given their elite run-stopping between the tackles, which forces teams to avoid even trying to run the ball against them.

Running Backs

James Cook (Fade)
Ty Johnson (Long-Shot FLEX)

This is just an avoidable matchup for James Cook. In their first matchup, Cook had just 39 rushing yards on nine attempts as the Ravens have been the best run-stopping unit for most of the season. There has been only one running back who has topped 70 yards against this defense all season, which was Saquon Barkley, who needed 23 carries to get to 107 yards back in Week 13. At $9,600 for a flex position, it’s just too high expensive unless you’re going with a complete Bills stack this week which seems like an unlikely outcome.

Ty Johnson is intriguing. At $4,400, he’s a player who the Bills could very easily turn to in the passing game if they struggle to run the ball as expected. Johnson has either out-snapped or tied James Cook for snaps in three of the last four games, as the veteran running back is the better pass blocker and receiver of the two. There’s a game script here similar to the Detroit game back in Week 15, where the Bills turn to Johnson to try to exploit a favorable matchup, as Johnson had five receptions for 114 yards in that game. The floor is low here. This is an elite run-stopping unit with All-Pro’s at both safety and linebacker, so unless you’re stacking the Bills and need a cheap option, it’s best to focus on the receivers in Buffalo over the running backs.

Wide Receivers

Khalil Shakir (Fade unless Buffalo Stack)
Puka Nacua (Fade)

For Khalil Shakir this is entirely about roster construction this week. Most players are going to try to take at least two of Jackson, Allen, and Henry, which will leave you somewhere around $5,300 per player left in your lineup. To then take Shakir at $8,000 leaves very little room to construct the rest of your roster. The biggest problem with Shakir is the lack of upside. Since Keon Coleman’s return in Week 15, Shakir has 39, 22, 25, and last week has 61 yards. Last week, Shakir caught all six of his targets to get to the 61 yards; he’s being utilized as a possession-type receiver as he does not have a catch longer than 15 yards over his last four games and is averaging just 10.8 on the season. For a player who has just four touchdowns on the season, you need more than six targets per game if you’re going to average just 10.8 yards per target. The math simply doesn’t work unless there is a broken play somewhere, which against this defense and safety unit seems unlikely.  Snaps are also a concern for Shakir as for $9,000 we typically expect a receiver to be on the field more than about 60% of snaps for the season.

Since Keon Coleman returned from injury, he’s yet to get back to the elite upside he showed just before injury. Prior to being hurt in Week 9, Coleman had a 125-yard and 70-yard performance in back-to-back weeks. Since returning, he did have a 64-yard reception against Detroit in his first game back, but he has failed to top 31 yards since then. At $3,600, he’s cheap enough with enough upside that all it takes is one or two catches, and he could pay off his $3,600 price tag.

At $2,400, Curtis Samuel is an intriguing play this week. The Bills are actively looking for someone to step up at the wide receiver position, and it could be Samuel throughout this playoffs. While it’s difficult to take anything away from Week 18, where Samuel had eight targets for 52 yards, he did have 68 yards and a touchdown last week against Denver. The risk here is to be expected at $2,400, as Samuel has shown glimpses before this season, but then it has never built up into long-sustained success. While he no longer has the 4.31 speed that built him into a second-round pick, he still has more than enough speed to break away from a defense on a big play this week.

Tight End

Dalton Kincaid (Flex)
Statistically, the Ravens have been much better against the tight end positions since Ar’Darius Washington replaced Marcus Williams back in Week 11. From Weeks 1-10, the Ravens were allowing the second-most yards to opposing tight ends as they allowed 68 yards per game to the position. Since Week 11, they’re allowing just 40 yards per game, which is the fifth-best in the NFL. While there certainly has been improvement, it’s hard to say that this defense is completely fixed as the schedule disparity is quite large between the first 10 weeks compared to the last 9. Since Week 11, the Ravens have faced an incredibly weak schedule as they’ve faced Pat Freiermuth 3x, Will Dissly (47 yards), Dallas Goedert (35 yards), Daniel Bellinger (35 yards), Dalton Schultz, which was their best performance (21 yards), and Jordan Akins (60 yards). It’s hard to see a 5’8’’ 180-pound safety solving all of their tight-end issues. Kincaid is expensive at $5,800, but is a nice pivot off of Isaiah Likely who is $200 cheaper at $5,600.

Dawson Knox (Flex)

Similar to Kincaid, there’s potential that the Ravens are exploitable against the tight end position. Knox has far outsnapped Kincaid as he is the more traditional tight end and a far better blocker than Kincaid, who often lines up as a wide receiver. Knox was on the field for 61% of the plays this past week, and at just $2,800, he has value despite not having more than three targets over his last six games. There is a chance that the Ravens try to cover Kincaid with All-Pro Kyle Hamilton, which, if that happens, we would likely see a significant advantage for Knox this week as he would force a linebacker or the tiny Ar’Darius Washington to cover him.

Kickers and Defenses

Weather is going to be a problem in this game, which is going to greatly reduce the kickers’ upside this week. While wind is expected to be low, between 5-10 miles-per-hour, it is expected to be around 15 degrees at kickoff with scattered flurries throughout the game. This is going to cause teams to be more aggressive on fourth down than they otherwise might be as the ball simply doesn’t travel as far in the cold compared to the warmer temperatures. It’s unlikely that either kicker are great plays this week.

Neither defense is a great play this week. Both teams are in the bottom 5 in sacks allowed as both Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen do a tremendous job avoiding sacks and negative plays. Both quarterbacks have been excellent at preventing turnovers as well. Jackson has thrown just four interceptions all season, while Allen has thrown just six. While both defenses are good, the good offense is almost always going to win out against a good defense, and that’s the situation we have here this week.

Player Chart