DraftKings Sunday Night Showdown: Week 16

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the Showdown decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Theory

Vegas has held this spread (mostly) tight at DAL +4, but the scoring total has jumped from 46.5 to 48.5. There’s not much faith in either defense, both of which have struggled mightily against good passers. Of course, the road-favorite Buccaneers will likely draw most of the rostership tonight, which is fair. They’re red-hot, while the Cowboys’ 2024 failures have been high-profile. And in the Showdown world, that means opportunity. As the crowd (likely) flocks to Mike Evans and Bucky Irving, I’m more than happy overexposing myself to CeeDee Lamb and Rico Dowdle.

Injury Roundup

The Buccaneers, already down WR Chris Godwin for the year, will be without TE Cade Otton (knee) tonight. The Cowboys won’t have reserve WR Jalen Brooks (knee), who caught his first NFL touchdown in last week’s win.

Captain Consideration

1. CeeDee Lamb
2. Mike Evans
3. Rico Dowdle
4. Bucky Irving
5. Baker Mayfield

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Quarterback

Baker Mayfield (CPT or FLEX)

Mayfield’s pass volume is dipping of late. He’s dropped back just 52% of the time since Week 9, and his 29.8 attempts rank 20^th over that span. Even so, he’s produced 288 yards or more in 3 of those 6 games. He was nothing short of sensational in Week 15, shredding a strong Chargers defense (22 of 27, 288 yards, 4 touchdowns, 1 interception).

Mayfield is succeeding, but not with deep balls: his 6.5 aDOT ranks 30^th among 34 qualifying passers. Rather, he’s just hitting on (just about) every short-to-intermediate throw. He leads the entire league in red zone completion rate (74.2%), with 21 touchdowns from in close. In short, he’s red hot, and the Cowboys’ slumping defense doesn’t look up to the task of slowing him.

Running Back

Bucky Irving (CPT or FLEX)
Rachaad White (FLEX)
Sean Tucker (FLEX)

By snap counts, the Tampa Bay backfield has been a three-way mess for much of the year. But we’ve gotten some degree of clarity since the Week 11 bye, with Irving, White, and Tucker all playing together in three full games:

Well then. Irving had impressed all through his rookie season, but he’s actually elevated his game of late through multiple injuries. In those full games, he’s averaged 21.0 opportunities and found the end zone twice. When he’s on the field, he’s utilized; the team loves throwing to him and using him near the goal line.

Irving, however, will be played heavily on Showdown slates tonight. Considering their snap distributions, White makes for an intriguing zag from the pack. Irving’s hefty rostership will simultaneously drive down White’s, and the numbers say he’s nearly as likely to produce.

Wide Receiver

Mike Evans (CPT or FLEX)
Jalen McMillan (FLEX)
Sterling Shepherd (FLEX)

Like CeeDee Lamb across the field, Evans marginally dominates a slimmed-down Buccaneers receiving group. Unlike Lamb, though, Evans isn’t seeing any opportunity in the red zone. Over 11 games, he’s drawn just 10 of the team’s looks there – and none over the past 2 weeks. For all his reputation, frame, and big-play resume, Evans hasn’t much of a goal-line dominator in years. That hasn’t changed here in 2024, so his weekly ceiling isn’t absurdly high. He’ll depend on volume and deep-ball chances, which eases his Showdown value a bit behind Lamb’s.

Shepherd is back from the NFL scrap heap and playing real snaps (40.3 per game), but he’s not doing much with them (25.3 yards, with a high of 63). There’s much more buzz around rookie McMillan, who’s claimed 13 targets over the past 2 weeks and scored 3 touchdowns in the process. Like Chris Godwin, McMillan can win underneath or down the field; he’s found the end zone on 4 of his 22 rookie receptions.

Tight End

Payne Durham (FLEX)
Ryan Miller (FLEX)

The lack of Cade Otton, who leads the team in total targets through 14 games, will be highly noticeable. But Otton doesn’t have one solitary “handcuff” – he’ll be replaced by this uninspiring platoon. Even together, they won’t sniff Otton’s breakout production (a 21% target share since Chris Godwin’s injury).

Dallas Cowboys

Quarterback

Cooper Rush (FLEX)

Rush is no physical marvel, but he’s a polished veteran with six-plus years in the Dallas offense. Since his high-profile faceplant against the Eagles, Rush has been perfectly capable of feeding the Cowboys’ playmakers. He compiled numbers in a blowout loss to Houston (32 of 55, 354 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception) and was razor-sharp on Thanksgiving (24 of 32, 247, 2 and 0).

Rush’s (faint) Captain appeal lies in his touchdown potential. The Cowboys are moving the ball again, and 8 of Rush’s 10 touchdowns have come in the red zone. Any game with a moderate Vegas total points to the possibility of multiple scores for Rush. After all, he’s done so in three of the Cowboys’ last four.

Running Back

Rico Dowdle (CPT or FLEX)
Ezekiel Elliott (FLEX)

Dowdle has claimed a stranglehold on this backfield: 64% of snaps and 78% of the opportunities since Week Nine. And he’s made good, too, averaging 119.5 yards on the ground over the last 4 weeks.

That said, every single star aligns against Dowdle for Week 16. The hard-nosed Buccaneers allow little on the ground, so Dowdle may need to catch passes to meet fantasy expectations. But the one-dimensional Dowdle hasn’t topped 12 receiving yards in 6 weeks. He doesn’t touch the ball much near the goal line, either, where Elliott pilfers at least a little value.

Dowdle’s recent success is impressive and can’t be ignored. Given the matchup, though, it will likely be overrated a bit by the public, which would dampen his Showdown ceiling even further.

Wide Receiver

CeeDee Lamb (CPT or FLEX)
Jalen Tolbert (FLEX)
Brandin Cooks (FLEX)

Lamb is tonight’s prime choice, either as Captain or squeezed into a Flex spot. He’ll be on just about every roster

Dak Prescott is down, but Cooper Rush knows where his bread is buttered:

Lamb has cleared 90 yards in 3 of 5 games, and he’s being worked into the end zone as much as he usually is. Without that much of a post-Prescott dip, Lamb deserves the top Showdown spot tonight; the only drama revolves around whether to Captain him. He’s certain to be heavily involved, and nearly certain to produce, but there are definitely more unique options out there.

Tolbert and Cooks have seen their roles tumble of late. Neither has topped 41 yards in a game with Rush under center, after all. When Rush threw 55 times in panic mode against Houston, Tolbert managed all of 2 catches and 21 yards. (Cooks was sidelined for that game.) Tolbert drew the same number of looks as Brevyn Spann-Ford and RB Rico Dowdle. You can do significantly better than that, particularly if you look under the radar (see below).

Tight End

Jake Ferguson (FLEX)

2024 hasn’t panned out the way Ferguson had hoped. Offensive struggles and injuries have held him under 30 yards in 5 of 10 games, and he’s yet to find the end zone. In fact, he hasn’t drawn a look from the red zone since Week 8. He simply doesn’t seem a prominent part of the Cooper Rush attack.

Under the Radar

KaVontae Turpin (FLEX)

Let’s cross our fingers and hope Turpin stays low-played tonight. He’s likely made enough splash plays here in 2024 to draw some rostership. Still, many will chase the solid snap counts of Brandin Cooks and Jalen Tolbert, neither of whom has produced in months. Turpin only sees 15.6 snaps a game, but he’s caught 3+ balls 6 times. He’s one of the three fastest players in football, and the benefits of a kick-return touchdown could literally swing your Showdown GPP.

Kicker and Defense

With staggering accuracy and a powerful leg, Brandon Aubrey is the best kicker on Earth and in fantasy. He’s so good he’s woven deeply into the Cowboys’ late-half plans. Of course, that’s no secret, so he’s also rostered accordingly on Showdown slates. Just not quite as much as he should be. The Cowboys offense is nothing special in the red zone, hence 38 field goal attempts through 14 games.

It’s those same red-zone struggles that make the Tampa Bay defense somewhat intriguing. Cooper Rush can be rattled by pressure, and Todd Bowles’ Buccaneers blitz at the league’s third-highest rate.