DraftKings Sunday Night Showdown: Week 14

Ladd McConkey has been ruled out. Please remove him from your lineup. Quentin Johnston and Joshua Palmer along with Will Dissly see an upgrade. All would be high-risk captains with Johnston likely having the most touchdown

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the Showdown decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Theory

Vegas appears done with expecting big Kansas City wins. They simply don’t chase blowouts, and they rarely pull out more than they need to win; seemingly every Chiefs game now ends 23-20 in one direction. They’ve won five of their last six games, but lost all six against the spread. So, there’s no reason to expect anything but a tough, one-score matchup that goes in either direction.

That helps us in the Showdown world: we get to project a full complement of snaps, in a full, typical gameplan, for each side. It also helps that both these offenses are so kind (and so injury-riddled) as to give us tight, streamlined offenses to pick through. (We won’t have to dig and analyze much through the No. 4 wideouts.)

In a nutshell, it all looks easy tonight. A little too easy, if you ask me.

Injury Roundup

The Chiefs are relatively healthy at the skill spots. After all, they’ve now had 10 weeks to process the loss of top wideout Rashee Rice. The Chargers, on the other hand, are without top runner J.K. Dobbins, and they’re monitoring the status of top receiver Ladd McConkey closely. McConkey has dominated this receiving corps of late, and his absence would have a huge ripple effect.

Captain Consideration

1. Travis Kelce
2. Ladd McConkey – if active
3. DeAndre Hopkins
4. Isiah Pacheco
5. Justin Herbert
6. Patrick Mahomes II

Los Angeles Chargers

Quarterback

Justin Herbert (CPT or FLEX)

Herbert hasn’t dazzled anyone with raw numbers here in 2024. His 213 yards per game sits 23^rd league-wide, on a par with Trevor Lawrence and Derek Carr in the upper-QB2 ranks. However, that volume is on a bit of an upswing. The Chargers dropped back to throw just 47% of the time over the season’s first 4 weeks, second-lowest in football. Since then, their 56% mark ranks 14^th-highest. In a closely-projected game like this one, it’s safe to project Herbert to throw 30-35 passes.

And that’s great news, given Herbert’s elite per-throw efficiency. He’s posting career-best yardage rates and turnover rates, and he’s put up several multi-touchdown games despite hardly any activity near the goal line. Only six passers have topped him in adjusted yardage per throw. Anytime we can project Herbert to throw with volume, we should probably zag from the pack and get on board. Neither QB is essential tonight, but I prefer him to Mahomes.

Running Back

Gus Edwards (FLEX)
Kimani Vidal (FLEX)

Those who salivated over Edwards sans-J.K. Dobbins in Week 13 were sorely disappointed:

Edwards has long been a one-dimension, one-speed grinder who only contributes in one type of game. Unless he’s barreling into the end zone multiple times, he’s almost certain to let you down. To make matters worse, Justin Herbert simply isn’t interested in throwing to any of these guys. Non-Dobbins backs have caught just five balls all season. With no floors or ceilings to speak of, neither of these guys warrants attention outside very specific Showdown builds.

Wide Receiver

Ladd McConkey (CPT or FLEX) – if active
Quentin Johnston (FLEX)
Joshua Palmer (FLEX)

McConkey hasn’t yet developed the reputation of an alpha, but why not? Perhaps it’s all the Questionable tags, or just the public assuming this is still a low-volume attack. For whatever reason, though, the fantasy world keeps waiting for the other McConkey shoe to drop.

In the meantime, all the rookie has done is suit up through all those tags and average 5 catches and 68 yards. He’s demanded 25% of Justin Herbert’s targets, a mark that’s meant more and more as the Chargers have thrown more. Perhaps most importantly, McConkey is proving he’s far more than a “slot guy.” His 10.2 aDOT sits higher than those of Garrett Wilson, Puka Nacua, or Tee Higgins, and he’s caught 9 of the 18 deep balls thrown his way.

To top it off, this matchup looks particularly tasty for McConkey. He’ll spend much of his night against Chiefs nickel Chamarri Conner, who’s drawn mixed reviews in his first year in the lineup. Conner looks like a gifted playmaker on the ball, but he’s a gambler who can be beaten at the break point. Last week, Brock Bowers lined up all over the formation and was forcefed the ball in space; he ended with 10 catches, 140 yards, and a long touchdown right past Conner.

If McConkey is forced to sit, Johnston will likely go over-rostered. Still one of the world’s shakiest receivers, he’s caught just 4 of the last 17 passes thrown his way. He’s scored a few touchdowns, which suggests some kind of red-zone role, but the dirty secret is that Johnston hasn’t drawn a look inside the 10-yard line since Week 2. He’s worlds away from alpha status in McConkey’s place; Palmer would offer much more upside in terms of roster uniqueness.

Tight End

Will Dissly (FLEX)

He just won’t go away! Few would’ve guessed in 2019, after the former fourth-rounder’s second devastating leg injury, that he’d still be on a roster in 2024, let alone drawing a 16% target share for a contender. Dissly didn’t catch a pass last week, but he’d averaged 6 targets and 48 yards over his prior 6 games. His role is a crucial one, if only underneath, in an offense led by Jim Harbaugh and coordinator Greg Roman.

Under the Radar

Hassan Haskins (FLEX)

Haskins fumbled on the Chargers’ third snap of Week 13 and didn’t see another touch. Those playing in deep Showdown GPPs could roll the dice here for a major dose of differentiation. Haskins could find himself right back in the pack this week, and a committee as tenuous as this one is always up in the air. Or, more likely, he could merely gum up the works even further.

Kansas City Chiefs

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes II (CPT or FLEX)

Mahomes is throwing with more than enough volume to make fantasy folk happy (35.6 attempts a game, 5^th among QBs), but he’s doing it with just middling efficiency (7.0 yards per throw, 23^rd). If he’s not throwing deep, and he’s not throwing near the goal line, then he’s far more valuable to the Hunt family than he is to the fantasy world. There’s a solid close-game floor for Mahomes, who’s posted at least 17 DraftKings points in 7 of his last 8 games. But for those who feel the need to Captain a QB, the lack of upside makes him a tough sell over Herbert, who will likely need to throw a little more tonight.

Running Back

Isiah Pacheco (CPT or FLEX)
Kareem Hunt (FLEX)
Samaje Perine (FLEX)

This was a pure timeshare in Pacheco’s Week 13 return:

That said, Pacheco could take back full control of this backfield at any time. After all, he laid claim to 94% of the team’s touches in 2024 (playoffs included). Hunt has been anything but efficient: his 4.0 yards per scrimmage touch sits in Cam Akers/Miles Sanders territory. Pacheco showed juice in his return, including a 34-yard run through the open field. Over his 18 games last year as the unquestioned lead back, Pacheco averaged a stout 15.7 DraftKings points.

Hunt, however, lingers as an intriguing zag from the pack. Few will roster him after (a) Pacheco’s return and (b) Hunt’s hideous Week 13 line (7 rushes, 15 yards, 2 receptions, 0 yards). But if the timeshare remains in play, and it’s Hunt who’s given a wide-open hole or a couple of goal-line carries, then he’ll swing Showdowns majorly.

Wide Receiver

DeAndre Hopkins (CPT or FLEX)
Xavier Worthy (FLEX)
JuJu Smith-Schuster (FLEX)

Through five games in the driver’s seat, Hopkins leads this receiving corps more than the surface numbers indicate:

In other words, he’s been every bit as involved in the pass game as Kelce over the past month-plus. But could there be even a further gear? How does that Hopkins usage compare to the last dominator of this group?

If he’s being used just as often as Rice was, then will he soon start producing on the same level? Probably not, as Rice is much younger and more dynamic in the open field. Still, on Black Friday, Hopkins drew 20% of Patrick Mahomes II’ looks and posted 4 catches for 90 yards. He also lost 46 yards to pass interference calls. As Mahomes’ clear-cut 1B in a close-projected game, he’ll be rostered heavily tonight – but not heavily enough.

Worthy also feels close to a true breakout game. But is he? These recent stat lines – 4 for 61, 4 for 46, 5 for 54 – are boring for such a dynamic prospect, and there isn’t much hope hiding between the numbers. The speedster has caught just 4 of 20 deep passes thrown his way thus far. Worthy is given a few screens here and there, but for all his speed he’s yet to force a missed tackle in the open field. He could erupt at some point, but I see no reason to project it.

The good news for Smith-Schuster: he’s back in the fold after breaking out for 130 yards in Week 5, then sitting 4 games with an injury. The bad news: he’s now a complete afterthought, with all of four targets over three games back.

Tight End

Travis Kelce (CPT or FLEX)
Noah Gray (FLEX)

No, there aren’t any metric reasons to ride Kelce for upside tonight. He’s looked every bit of 35 thus far, with his lowest yardage rate, touchdown rate, and success rate since 2016. Kelce has bobbed along of late, with 60+ yards in 5 of his last 6, but the fantasy world expects (and pays for) so much more than that.

Hopefully, those blah results have bred enough fantasy fatigue to drive down Kelce’s rostership tonight. I’ll be looking to capitalize either way; Kelce’s blend of volume and likely touchdown progression point to big, big upside. He’s been quiet about it, but he’s drawn a Kelce-like 25% target share. Since Week 4, in fact, that mark has been 28%. He’s still either the first or last read on so many Patrick Mahomes II drop-offs that he’s on the verge of going undervalued. He’s only found the end zone twice thus far, but that switch could flip at any second. Kelce has drawn 13 red-zone looks over the last 6 weeks, second only to Ja’Marr Chase. Until he erupts with another 25-point DraftKings finish – which could come tonight – the public may shortsightedly lay off him.

Gray has been fantasy dynamite lately. He caught 4 touchdowns over Weeks 11 and 12, then went 4 for 58 (on 6 targets) on Black Friday. Still, there isn’t any reason to chase that weird touchdown upside with several better options on the slate. He’s a FLEX only, and his recent exploits could swell his rostership past where he’s viable.

Under the Radar

Justin Watson (FLEX)

Watson isn’t a very dependable receiver, but he’s valued for his blocking, and he has Patrick Mahomes II’ eye in certain situations. Over their 3 years together, 7 of Watson’s 112 targets have come in the red zone.

Kicker and Defense

This feels like a great Harrison Butker week. The Chiefs are struggling to score touchdowns (52% red-zone TD rate, 24^th in football) and the Chargers don’t let anyone into the end zone (43%, second-best). Alas, Butker can’t return from IR until at least next week, and backup Spencer Shrader is also on the shelf. Fill-in Matthew Wright did hit 4 of 5 field goals on Black Friday, with the miss coming from 59 yards. I like Wright, albeit not nearly as much as I’d like Butker here.

It’s an ideal week, however, to zag from the public and trot out one of these defenses. These teams’ 27-point total back in Week 4 points to a tight, physical matchup with touchdowns at a premium. I like the Chiefs DST more: they sit 27^th with just 24 sacks, but they’re 5^th in pressure rate and 2^nd in knockdown rate. At some point, those hits will turn into an eight-sack day, and it could absolutely come right here.