DraftKings Sunday Night Showdown: Week 13

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the Showdown decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel's strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Theory

The big question heading into this week is the weather. As of Sunday Morning, it appears that the snow that Buffalo is anticipated to receive is all going to happen south of the stadium, with just a 15-20% chance of snow within the area. While it is going to be cold, especially for the 49ers heading to Buffalo, the wind should not be a major concern here as it is only going to be about 10 miles per hour, which is a big reason why the over/under in this game has not moved.

The Bills should be in a great spot here at home in the cold against a 49ers team that is reeling. The 49ers desperately need a win at 5-6, but they’re coming off of a 38-10 beatdown to the Packers, which they didn’t show up for, as Josh Jacobs ran all over the 49ers defense.

Injury Report

Brock Purdy appears to be starting this week after missing last week due to a shoulder injury. The team indicated that he did not have any setbacks and practiced in full on Friday.

Fred Warner came out and said that he was playing with a fractured ankle earlier this week. The big question is how is that going to hold up in the cold Buffalo weather. The 49ers desperately need Warner to play at a high level after Josh Jacobs ran for over 100 yards and three touchdowns against this defense last week.

Dalton Kincaid will miss this week with a knee injury. This should open up some additional opportunities for both Khalil Shakir and Dawson Knox. Knox did see a season-high six targets in the Bills last game with Kincaid out.

Keon Coleman is questionable after missing the last two games for the Bills. It looks likely the 6’4’’ rookie receiver will play, which is good news for the Bills passing game as he provides a downfield threat that the team desperately needs.

Trent Williams is out this week at left tackle, while guard Aaron Banks is also out for San Francisco. The Williams injury is a critical one, as he’s one of the best-left tackles in football, which could create issues for the 49ers this week.

Nick Bosa is also out this week for San Francisco. This crushes a pass rush that has already seen a significant drop-off compared to their standards. This is a defense that needs a pass rush as they’re already without several key pieces in the secondary in Deommodore Lenoir, Talanoa Hufanga, and Dre Greenlaw at linebacker.

Captain Consideration

1. Josh Allen
2. Jauan Jennings
3. Christian McCaffrey
4. George Kittle
5. Keon Coleman

San Francisco 49ers

Quarterback

Brock Purdy (Flex Only)

For Purdy, we don’t know how healthy he is going to be this week. This is a must-win game for the 49ers, or their playoff chances will start to become fairly bleak, so even if Purdy is 60% healthy, they need to run him out there and hope for the best. Part of Purdy’s fantasy upside is his rushing upside, as he has run for four touchdowns in his last four games and at least 25 yards in three of his last four. However, with a shoulder injury, is that something that Purdy is still going to be willing to do this week? It seems far more likely that the game plan will be for the 49ers to take a low-risk game plan with Purdy getting the ball out to his key playmakers and having him expertly run this offense, which was something that Brandon Allen struggled to do last week. The Bills’ pass defense has been one of the better units in the NFL this season, as they’ve held five quarterbacks under 200 yards, including Patrick Mahomes II, Kyler Murray, Tua Tagovailoa, Lamar Jackson, and Trevor Lawrence.’ While they’ve only allowed one 300-yard passer all season to C.J. Stroud.