DraftKings Sunday Night Showdown: Week 12

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the Showdown decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Theory

Tonight we have a game packed to the gills with offensive scheming and skill-position talent. We have a handful of prolific touchdown scorers, both on strong, motivated teams. And Vegas, with its high 49-point total, wants us to brace for a high-flying event.

In other words: tonight, as much as ever, the burden is on us to chase not only high-scoring plays, but high-scoring and lower-rostered ones. We all want Saquon Barkley, sure, and we all want to benefit from a Tush Push touchdown or three. But those won’t help us much if they’re helping 65% of the field the exact same amount.

Injury Roundup

The Rams are exceptionally healthy for a Week 13 matchup. The Eagles are, too, though they’ve already ruled out No. 2 wideout DeVonta Smith. His snaps will be replaced by a full-on committee led by Jahan Dotson.

Captain Consideration

1. Saquon Barkley
2. Jalen Hurts
3. Cooper Kupp
4. Puka Nacua
5. Kyren Williams

Philadelphia Eagles

Quarterback

Jalen Hurts (CPT or FLEX)

Hurts is always a Showdown cheat code for Tush Push reasons. Whatever you’re projecting for Hurts – and it should be a lot in this matchup – should be boosted by at least 2-5 points to account for that glorious, clumsy stumble.

But right now, there’s a lot more to Hurts than just that. Hurts hasn’t thrown more than 30 passes in any of his last 7 games, but he also hasn’t fallen below 18.7 DraftKings points. He’s averaged 25.3 over that span. In a nutshell: he wins Showdowns in a number of different ways, in just about any game script.

Rostership is the worry here, but not so much tonight. There are countless viable Captain choices tonight, so they’ll all see slightly depressed roster rates. Hurts looks like best mix of floor and ceiling, though I think we’ll see slightly low rostership right behind him in the backfield…

Running Back

Saquon Barkley (CPT or FLEX)

Like Hurts, Barkley has scorched the fantasy earth in just about every type of game. Yes, he’s fallen below 10.0 DraftKings points twice – but he’s also topped 36.0 thrice. Only one player (Alvin Kamara) has touched the ball more than Barkley, and no one has come close to his 134.7 scrimmage yards a game. Even sharing a backfield with Hurts and the Tush Push, Barkley has managed to score 10 touchdowns from all over. The Rams are tough to run on, but Barkley gains on everyone.

The reason I prefer him oh so very slightly to Hurts is due to roster rate – or, at least, my theory on flip-a-coin teammates like this. I believe the public is generally a bit more likely to roster a quarterback, particularly a dynamite one like Hurts. Barkley, then, would split the “vote” with Kyren Williams and the various wideouts. And a blowup Barkley game, in your Captain slot, while he’s rostered less than he should be, is a truly massive step forward.

Wide Receiver

A.J. Brown (CPT or FLEX)
Jahan Dotson (FLEX)

DeVonta Smith’s absence should certainly make Brown a 10-target guy tonight. There’s no raw data to build any expectations around: Brown has never suited up without Smith, who rarely misses games, across the field. However, when Smith played without Brown in Weeks 2 and 3, he drew a massive 34% of Hurts’ targets. That looks like a fair baseline for the supremely talented Brown, who’s cleared 80+ yards in 5 of his 7 games.

Dotson started Weeks 2-4 in place of Brown, posting the quietest 56 snaps per game you could imagine: 5 receptions, 25 yards. That wasn’t a weekly average, but rather his three-game total. He’s not a source of ceiling tonight, and his floor is a literal zero.

Tight End

Dallas Goedert (FLEX)

Goedert’s target numbers tend to land all over the place, but tonight, he should find himself the clear second option for Jalen Hurts targets. You’d like to see more red-zone involvement, though, as you chase Showdown upside. For what it’s worth: in Weeks 3 and 4, with A.J. Brown on the shelf, Goedert posted a sizzling 17 catches for 232 yards.

Under the Radar

Kenneth Gainwell (FLEX)

Gainwell doesn’t find himself involved much in the offense – that is, while games are competitive. He’s posted games of 14 and 8 touches over the past month, with 5 of those coming inside the 10-yard line. If this game gets out of hand, Gainwell could be the cheat code at under 5% rostered.

Los Angeles Rams

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford (FLEX)

A funny thing has happened to Stafford over the past two months. He’s posted two big games in his last four, but on relatively low volume. His last two high-volume games have yielded 46 and 44 attempts, but just 10.7 and 18.9 DraftKings points.

The big difference, of course, is that he threw four touchdowns in each of the latter two. The Rams keep the ball underneath when they can: Stafford’s 7.3 aDOT ranks 24^th among passers. He doesn’t add anything with his legs, either. As great as Stafford (typically) is for the Rams, he tends to need those TDs to star for Showdown folk. And this matchup simply doesn’t lend itself well to a bevy of Stafford touchdowns.

Running Back

Kyren Williams (CPT or FLEX)
Blake Corum (FLEX)

Williams is sitting on a three-game touchdown drought. The fact that that’s notable is a testament to what a consistent TD threat he’s been for the Rams. He opened the year on a six-game TD streak, after all, and he’s now posted 25 over his last 23 games.

It’s not just the touchdowns, though, that make Williams so attractive. Since Week 3, he’s taken on % of the backfield’s touches and put up 76+ scrimmage yards in every game. He’s not much more than a checkdown receiver, but the pass-happy Rams have thrown 4+ passes to him 4 times already. In short, Williams has all sorts of paths to a Showdown-winning night, And while everyone will roster him, he’ll likely lose the Captain battle to Saquon Barkley and the receivers.

Corum is coveted by the season-long folk because he’s a handcuff to Williams, and a talented one. For one game, though, the only reason to target Corum is if you’re projecting a mid-game Williams injury. If that’s the case… you play fantasy strangely.

Wide Receiver

Cooper Kupp (CPT or FLEX)
Puka Nacua (CPT or FLEX)
Demarcus Robinson (FLEX)

Nacua and Kupp dominate the air attack, and at first glance, they look almosfet interchangeable. Here are their last three games together, post-injuries:

Either/or, right? Going a little beyond the surface, we see how they’re being used and how they’re performing overall in 2024:

So, they each boast their own brand of upside. Nacua is the faster and more dynamic of the two, but he’s an afterthough near the goal line. In a high-octane game like this one, we’re chasing touchdowns, and Kupp looks as likely as anyone in the league to find the end zone. That’s nothing new for a guy who’s literally scored on 10.2% of his catches since 2021.

Robinson is a rare “handcuff” WR, often sensational when either Nacua or Kupp sits. When they don’t, however, he sees hefty snaps (53 per game) but far less attention just (4.0 targets). He’ll be low-rostered tonight, but with good reason.

Tight End

Davis Allen (FLEX)

Allen is the new starter, but he excites no one – 6 receptions, 39 yards through 8 games. It’s worth noting that 5 of his 11 targets have come in the red zone, and 2 very nearly wound up in the end zone.

Kicker and Defense

The Rams have struggled badly in the red zone, so they’ve leaned heavily on kicker Joshua Karty. Conversely, the Eagles have been a top-five red zone defense all year. Karty could well find himself busy near the goal line, and few will be rostering him.

Neither defense looks particularly attractive, given all the offensive talent and the high point total. That’s why the Rams defense, which sits 3^rd in hurry rate and 10^th in takeaway rate, could swing a few GPPs.