DraftKings Sunday Night Showdown: Week 11

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the Showdown decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Theory

Virtually all of the talent and upside at the skill positions is found on the Cincinnati side. The Chargers, however, have developed a near-shutdown defense under new coach Jim Harbaugh. Of the two opposing forces, Vegas clearly expects the Bengals offense to find ways to generate. The game’s 48-point total is by far the Chargers’ highest of the year thus far; in fact, it’s only their second of their 10 games to land north of 42.

That means, then, that there’s ample GPP value to be found on the Chargers. It’s a realtively slim, streamlined offense with a great quarterback and predictable weapons. If the Bengals are going to score, Justin Herbert and the Chargers should be able to score right behind them. Cincinnati’s tissue-paper defense sits 28^th in expected yardage per play, and they’ve given up 24+ points in 7 of their 10 games.

Injury Report

Bengals No. 2 wideout Tee Higgins will return to action tonight. The most impactful injuries are on defense, where each team’s top edge rusher is questionable. Trey Hendrickson’s loss would greatly hamper the Cincinnati defense, and the same goes for Khalil Mack across the field, so both statuses should be monitored.

Captain Consideration

1. Chase Brown
2. Joe Burrow
3. Tee Higgins
4. Ja'Marr Chase
5. Justin Herbert

Cincinnati Bengals

Quarterback

Joe Burrow (CPT or FLEX)

Few are hotter at the moment than Burrow, who’s thrown for 679 yards and 9 touchdowns over the last 2 weeks. He and Ja’Marr Chase, who isn’t coverable at the moment, are simply operating on a different level than most. Burrow has now cleared 25.0 DraftKings points in 4 of 10 games, and nothing looks fluky or volume-based about it. Sure, he’s thrown and completed more passes than anyone else. But Burrow’s efficiency numbers all rank among the elite, and they’re all clustered right around his career norms. You can wring your hands a little over this tough matchup, but it’s not tough enough to ignore all this firepower.

Running Back

Chase Brown (CPT or FLEX)

Brown is my favorite Captain play tonight. He’s taken every single backfield touch over the last 2 weeks: 40 rushes, 14 receptions, totaling 251 yards and a pair of touchdowns. That’s sheer dominance of a backfield on a LaDainian Tomlinson level. Still, his ownership of the ground game hasn’t gotten near the attention Ja’Marr Chase has through the air. Brown will be heavily rostered tonight, but I’m willing to bet far less so than Chase – and with a similar realistic ceiling. Maybe even a stronger one (keep reading).

Wide Receiver

Tee Higgins (CPT or FLEX)
Ja'Marr Chase (CPT or FLEX)
Andrei Iosivas (FLEX)

You’re not catching anyone by surprise with Chase, who will be rostered by virtually everyone. Strategy matters, though. The ones who don’t will be shrewd tournament players who realize they won’t benefit that much from a big Chase day. Say he matches last week’s 58.4 DraftKings points – great! Great for just about all your opponents, too, though. You wouldn’t gain nearly as much as you would with the inverse, fading Chase in preparation for a disappointing day.

The most common-sense way to hedge is to play Chase – you wouldn’t want to be caught without those 58.4, of course – but to Captain someone else. The gutsiest way is to avoid him altogether against a Chargers defense that’s shut down a few strong wideouts already. Besides, when we look at ceiling, we want to look at a realistic picture of the ceiling. Chase has posted games of 32.8, 44.3, and 58.4 DraftKings points, but he’s only reached 20+ one other time. That was 20.4, back in Week 8, a game in which Chase drew 11 targets in a pass-heavy script. A 15-20 point total simply won’t move the tide for you here.

Higgins makes more sense in the Captain spot. He often slips out of sight and out of mind, but when he’s played this year, he’s drawn a team-high 29% target share and caught 3, 6, 9, 7, and 4 balls, with 3 touchdowns. His last 3 appearances have averaged 20.7 DraftKings points. Most crucially, of course, he’ll be on roughly half the rosters Chase is. In a nutshell, both look like required plays – but only Higgins offers a strategic edge.

Tight End

Mike Gesicki (FLEX)

The Bengals like to rotate three TEs, and Gesicki isn’t even the snap leader at the position. Still, when he’s on the field, he’s a priority. Gesicki has drawn 8, 6, and 9 targets over the last 3 weeks, totaling 203 yards and 2 touchdowns. The return of Higgins should damper that a bit, but Gesicki is at least good enough to capitalize on TE-heavy game scripts when they pop up.

Under the Radar

Jermaine Burton (FLEX)

I’ll keep pounding the drum for Burton, one of the great deep-ball prospects of the past few years, until he’s either an All-Pro or finally run out of Cincinnati on a rail. Burton probably won’t factor in tonight – he may not even dress – but he did play 39 snaps last week in place of Higgins. It’s worth noting all three of his catches thus far have been impactful: a 47-yarder, a 41-yarder, and a crucial 11-yard third-down conversion last week.

Los Angeles Chargers

Quarterback

Justin Herbert (CPT or FLEX)

Herbert has done a fantastic job of dialing back his volume (just 27 attempts per game) but remaining efficient (second-best in adjusted yardage rate) in the new Jim Harbaugh/Greg Roman scheme. It’s dinged Herbert’s fantasy ceiling, but devastatingly so, and the arrow is pointing way upward. He’s only reached 20+ DraftKings points once, but that came 3 weeks ago; in the 2 games since, he’s posted 19.5 and 19.8. Tonight, he faces an exceptionally weak defense in a game with a relatively high Vegas total. With so much roster attention focused on the Bengals, stacking Herbert with one of his two top receivers looks shrewd. This definitely feels like a “both quarterbacks” kind of Showdown.

Running Back

J.K. Dobbins (FLEX)
Gus Edwards (FLEX)

The fact that Edwards has returned and reformed this into a platoon will scare many casual Showdown players. Thankfully, both are highly valued in this offense, and both are capable of making fantasy dents in a timeshare. Dobbins is the clear snap leader of the two and the more likely to post a solid, well-rounded game. Edwards, in his Week 10 return, carried the ball on 10 of his 15 snaps – and he looked healthy and powerful in doing so.

Of the two, Dobbins is the preferred play. He sees pass-down work, and he’s the clear goal-line back, taking both short-yardage runs last week with both active. Still, Edwards is a strong differentiation play at lower rostership.

Wide Receiver

Ladd McConkey (FLEX)
Quentin Johnston (FLEX)
Joshua Palmer (FLEX)

Herbert spreads the ball around masterfully, so an investment in any of these guys is a strike for touchdowns, first and foremost. McConkey and Johnston have combined for just 57 catches thus far, but 9 of them have wound up in the end zone. McConkey is not only the more productive of the two – his 23% target share is close to that of a bona fide No. 1 – he may also come at a lower roster rate. Johnston has scored touchdowns in back-to-back weeks, which tends to stick in the public’s mind. But McConkey looks much more likely to pile up touchdowns going forward. He’s been thrown to 6 times from inside the 10, compared to 2 for Palmer and 0 for Johnston.

Tight End

Will Dissly (FLEX)

Dissly just won’t go away. He’s now clicked with Herbert, soaking up 32 targets over the past 5 weeks and flirting with DraftKings value. Still, with no real upside for volume or touchdowns, he’s only a Showdown play in a lineup that plans for a low-scoring game. Ideally, he’s only a cash-game option.

Kicker and Defense

The Bengals have been incredible in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on 72% of their trips (2^nd-best in football) and rendering Evan McPherson a Showdown afterthought. He hasn’t even attempted more than 2 field goals in a game since Week 3. But wait! The Chargers themselves sit No. 2 league-wide in red zone defense, allowing just 4 short touchdowns over their opponents’ last 14 such drives. Perhaps McPherson, whose leg is powerful and has won the Bengals games in the past, makes for a surprise Showdown winner tonight.