DraftKings Monday Showdown Week 19

Disclaimer:

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel's strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Scripting & Roster Construction

Vegas projects this game to be a close game, with the Vikings a 2.5-point favorite and a somewhat high-scoring game with a total of 47.5. The big question on everyone’s mind is what LA Rams team shows up this week. The team seems to be saying the right things, but there was a lot of emphasis on moving family members, pets, and personal belongings out for a lot of players as the team moved down to Arizona for the week due to the first in Southern California. There really are two ways to think about this game. The most likely scenario is that at the end of the day, these are human lives that are impacted, and this is a job for them. Yes, they’re highly paid. Yes, the job is something that most dream about, but 19 weeks into the season, it is human nature for the players to be distracted. That doesn’t mean they won’t give a full effort, but were they watching as much film this week? How did practice go, having to uproot your life, not knowing what world you would come back to? For the coaching staff, are they worried about having to take their kids out of school? All of this matters when the margins of winning a playoff game are so small.

The other scenario, which is more of a Disney movie, but we do see every now and then, is that a team rallies behind the issue and comes out and plays better. I’ve seen comparisons to the Saints' first game back in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina in 2006. However, that was over a year after Hurricane Katrina hit in 2005. The Saints were 3-13 in that 2005 season, and they had to play out of Houston. In a one-game scenario, anything can happen, and it would be impressive if the Rams were able to find a way to be competitive in this game.

This is a tricky slate because of Week 18, where the Rams benched their starters; we are seeing the fringe players a little bit higher priced than we normally would see them. Guys like Demarcus Robinson, TuTu Atwell, and Jordan Whittington are all about $1,000-$2,000 higher than they otherwise should be on a normal showdown slate.

Injury Roundup

Cam Akers was a late add to the injury report on Saturday with an illness, as he did not participate in practice. It seems like he will be fine, as Ty Chandler missed Friday’s practice with an illness but was a full participant on Saturday. If Akers were to miss, Aaron Jones would receive an upgrade, while Chandler would likely see additional touches.

Captain Considerations

1. Justin Jefferson
2. Jordan Addison
3. Cooper Kupp
4. Kyren Williams

Minnesota Showdown Players

Quarterback

Sam Darnold (FLEX)

What version of Sam Darnold are we going to get this week? Last week, in a must-win game, Darnold had the worst game of his season as he completed just 18 of 41 pass attempts for 166 yards. While last week’s matchup on paper was a good one against Detroit, they had their best defensive game of the season as Amik Robertson had a career game. This week, Darnold gets another favorable matchup against the Rams, who are allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks compared to the Lions last week, who are one of the league’s best defenses. The Rams have a strong pass rush led by Jared Verse, but there are issues at the cornerback positions as Ahkello Witherspoon and Darious Williams have both struggled on the outside.

Running Backs

Aaron Jones (FLEX)
Cam Akers (FLEX)