DraftKings GPP Domination Week 18

Slate Overview- Week 18 Thoughts

Most people despise Week 18, but it actually can be a profitable week for you if you play your cards right. Every year, there are people who become way too invested in the “value” that is created by teams that are resting players, as well as going overboard based on player incentives, and who have “extra” motivation to play well as if it is a real thing. Fading these players that get propped up in roster percentage because of these financial incentives

Let’s start with player incentives. An incentive is different than a record, as it is entirely personal, meaning a player will achieve a financial bonus if he hits a certain milestone. While the player certainly cares about this, unless the head coach, play caller, and quarterback also care about the finances of an individual player, then it’s unlikely that they’re going to get more carries or more targets simply because of a financial number. If it is a reasonable number, such as four catches for 50 yards, to get a bonus, then you might see that more likely than not. But for this to have a real GPP value, it’s crazy to think that NFL head coaches and Offensive Coordinators are sitting at a pre-game meeting with a sheet that says here are all of our bonuses for the week; how can we make sure that our players hit these. That just doesn’t happen, especially in Week 18, when that head coach and offensive coordinator often are wondering whether they will have a job next week.

The one exception to this could be quarterbacks running. Take Kyler Murray for example, he needs 50 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown for a $750k bonus. That is entirely in Murray’s control whether he wants to do that or not, as he could simply tuck the ball and run more often than normal, and the coaching staff is not going to have to change their entire game plan around it.

Records, on the other hand, are completely different. These are things that the teams will game plan around. Coaching staff view these as team accomplishments, often being able to put on their individual resumes, and are something that the organization takes pride in. Think about the Eagles and how they wanted to talk to everyone about whether or not to play Saquon Barkley and allow him to go for the record. It’s an organizational achievement rather than a financial one that the team could just end up paying out anyway, as happens in a lot of cases if they want to appease the player.

A key record that we’re tracking this week is Brock Bowers, who needs nine receptions to break the all-time receptions by a tight end record. With the Raiders having nothing to play for, you could see a few extra targets go to Bowers.

Key Injuries for Week 18

• James Conner and Trey Benson are both out for the Cardinals. This will make Michael Carter the starter for the Cardinals. We saw Carter last week have a significant role as he had 13 carries for 70 yards while also catching two passes for the Cardinals.
• Several teams are resting their starters this week. Kansas City, Los Angeles Rams, Philadelphia, Buffalo, and potentially Houston and LA Chargers are going to be resting their players. These are teams that could have value created from their backups, but they are ones that you need to be careful with. Houston and Los Angeles Chargers are teams that you likely should avoid completely. It is going to be difficult enough to win with these backup players, but if you’re only getting the backup players for half a game, you’re likely severely limiting your upside.
• One key injury in Philadelphia is Will Shipley. If he were not to be cleared due to a concussion, Kenneth Gainwell would become a top play this week.
• Kendre Miller is out for the Saints, as they’ll start Clyde Edwards-Helaire against the Buccaneers' elite run-stopping unit. This is probably just a stay-away, as Jamaal Williams will likely also have a role this week.
• Joe Flacco will once again start for Indianapolis. This should help the receivers once again, as Flacco threw for over 300 yards last week.
• Trey Lance reportedly will get significant snaps for the Cowboys this week. The Cowboys will need to pay Cooper Rush a $500k bonus if he plays the entire game.
• Joshua Dobbs will start this week for Brock Purdy. Deebo Samuel Sr. will also miss the final week of the season, while George Kittle remains questionable. This should open up the door for Jauan Jennings to have even more of a role than he already has in recent weeks, while Ricky Pearsall will also have a significant increase and can build off of his career game last week.

Stacks

Joshua Dobbs, Jauan Jennings, Trey McBride

Joshua Dobbs at $4,000 is too cheap on this slate. You’re going to need to find savings on this slate somewhere, and going cheap at the quarterback position allows you to avoid taking some of the replacement players who are going to see more playing time because of the team’s resting. For Dobbs, we’ve seen him have an extended starting stint with both the Cardinals and Vikings. Where Dobbs drives the most value is his mobility, as he ran for six touchdowns last season. For Jauan Jennings, he’s in a spot where the 49ers are going to need to throw the ball with Deebo and potentially George Kittle out. Earlier this season, we saw Brandon Aiyuk torch this defense for 147 yards back in Week 5. At $5,800, you’re getting a clear number-one player with very little competition around him this week.