Slate Overview- Week 16 Thoughts

Week 16 is going to be a fun GPP week on how to build your lineup. There are a significant amount of ways to build lineups based on some key decisions that you can make this week. The key to this slate is determining what you want to do with Michael Penix Jr. at a minimum price. At $4,500, he allows you flexibility within your lineup. However, you can also choose to fade the rookie and potentially get a significant advantage compared to 15% of the field if Penix struggles like most rookies in their first start have done. 

The other thing that is going to be unique on this slate is the low-price, high-upside players. At the wide receiver position, there are several players who are under $4,000 that you could look to in order to afford some of the higher-priced options. This is going to be critical to find value, as there are not many cheap running back options.

There are going to be two very common roster builds.

Roster Build #1: Pay down at quarterback, up at running back, down at wide receiver/tight end with one high-priced player.

Roster Build #2: Mid-priced quarterback, up at running back, down at wide receiver/tight end.  

Which one of these strategies will work largely depends on the cheap quarterback. If Michael Penix Jr. throws for 300 yards and multiple touchdowns, you're going to want to have him this week, but if he has the more likely 225 yards and 1-2 touchdowns, you can likely survive without him. Meanwhile, if the mid-priced quarterbacks of Anthony Richardson, Kyler Murray, or Joe Burrow have their ceiling game, it is going to be difficult to overcome them as they're so much higher than the cheap Penix or Caleb Williams.

At the running back position, the biggest issue is that if you go cheap, you're giving up a significant amount of upside compared some of the players near the top of the board. Unlike the past couple of weeks where we have cheap running backs who are going to see a lot of volume, we don't have that this week. If you go down and want to build a different lineup, go all the way down to Patrick Taylor Jr.. Or even take a chance that Craig Reynolds has a larger role than most think he will

Key Injuries for Week 16

• Dorian Thompson-Robinson will start for Cleveland. While Jameis Winston is dealing with an injury, this is a performance decision for the Browns. Thompson-Robinson kills the upside of just about all players on this Browns offense as they've become priced as if the pass-heavy Winston.
• Cedric Tillman has been ruled out for Cleveland. This is going to help the remaining receivers for the Browns as both Jerry Jeudy and David Njoku will get an upgrade. 
• Kirk Cousins has been benched for the Atlanta Falcons. Rookie Michael Penix Jr.. will get the start this week. At the minimum price, he's going to be one of the top options at quarterback this week.
• Trey Benson is out this week for Arizona. With Emari Demercado on IR, the Cardinals have no other running back besides special teams player DeeJay Dallas on their roster. This should make James Conner a tremendous play this week.
• David Montgomery is out with a knee injury. Jahmyr Gibbs will get the start and have a vast majority of the workload, with Craig Reynolds likely getting a few carries for Detroit. Gibbs is going to be the highest-rostered player on this slate.
• Tony Pollard is questionable, as he has been seemingly all season. While Pollard is not a great option this week, if he were to miss, Tyjae Spears would become an elite option this week.
• Isaac Guerendo is out this week, and Trent Williams is out for the 49ers. Patrick Taylor Jr.. would be in line to get a bulk of the work this week, although we could see Israel Abanikanda, who has been with the team for just three weeks, get some work in as the team looks to evaluate the second-year player.
• Jaylen Waddle is doubtful for Week 15. This should be a benefit to Tyreek Hill, but also for Malik Washington, who will be a cheap, high-risk, high-reward type player as he had five receptions for 52 yards last week.

Stacks

Kyler Murray, Trey McBride, Adam Thielen

Kyler Murray was disappointing last week with just 224 passing yards, no touchdowns, and 11 rushing yards. However, this is a player who has thrown for over 250 yards in four of his last five games. Murray is a tremendous hedge against James Conner, who is going to be one of the more popular running backs on this slate, given the matchup against Carolina. While the run defense for Carolina gets all of the criticism as the worst defense in the NFL, their pass defense is not much better. They've allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season and have struggled against mobile quarterbacks, as they've allowed three quarterbacks to run for 50 yards or more this season. While Murray is not running nearly as much as he had been early this season, it is now or never for the Cardinals. They need to win out to make the playoffs.

For McBride, this is all about the narrative. The Cardinals did everything they could last week to get McBride a touchdown, even giving him a shovel pass on the one-yard line. McBride now has eight targets over the last three games in the red zone as he has the most receptions of any player without a touchdown, surpassing Diontae Johnson last week. McBride provides a unique advantage as he is a volume machine at the tight end position while still being a very affordable $6,200. McBride has 70 yards or more in five straight games, and if he does find a touchdown, it is very likely that he gets to GPP value.

Adam Thielen was disappointing last week, as he had just three receptions for 52 yards. However, he's still the number one target for Bryce Young and has 90 yards or more in two of his last three games. At $5,600, he's cheap enough that he provides a nice complimentary piece to your lineup. Arizona has struggled against number-one wide receivers as he has allowed 75 yards or more to three of the last four number-one targets, with only the Patriots failing to get to 75 yards for DeMario Douglas.

Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams

The Rams/Jets game should be one of the games that has the highest potential for a shootout this week. Stafford and the Rams pulled off an unimpressive offensive win last week in bad weather as they won 12-6 in a game that neither team could consistently move the ball. Stafford threw for just 160 yards in that game but did show his upside in Week 14 with a 320-yard, two-touchdown performance against the Bills. After being one of the best secondaries in the NFL, the Jets have struggled against opposing quarterbacks, as they've allowed 270 yards or more in three of their last four games.

At the receiver position, it is a little scary to choose Cooper Kupp over Puka Nacua, given Kupp had zero receptions last week, but Kupp is just $6,500 and projected to be rostered by less than 5% of lineups. Kupp has topped 20 DraftKings points in three of his last five games and will have the more favorable matchup in this game, as Nacua will draw Sauce Gardner for most of the game.

Davante Adams is point-chasing a little bit, as he's coming off a 198-yard, two-touchdown performance last week. However, with the Jets having nothing to play for, it seemed last week that Aaron Rodgers was just playing backyard football with his friend and long-time teammate Adams. They were in synch for most of the game and have now had over 100 yards in two of their last three games. The Rams have had issues with their secondary all season, and Adams should be able to take advantage of this matchup.

Aidan O'Connell, Brock Bowers, Brian Thomas Jr..

No one is going to gravitate towards Aidan O'Connell this week. However, there are several reasons to look at him this week. O'Connell was great in his last game pre-injury, as he had 340 yards and two touchdowns against a good Chiefs defense. A big reason for O'Connell's success in that game was Bowers, who scored over 100 yards in each of the two games that O'Connell completed. Similar to Kyler Murray, this is a play that can differentiate you from the crowd this week when there are not a lot of great stacks on this slate. If Bowers has his ceiling performance of over 100 yards and a touchdown, it's very probable that he will end up in an optimal lineup.

For Brian Thomas Jr., the change from Trevor Lawrence to Mac Jones has not impacted him much at all. Thomas is benefitting from being the only receiver left in Jacksonville after Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis, and Evan Engram were all lost for the year. Thomas has 70 yards or more in each of his last four games while scoring three touchdowns in his last three games. The Raiders' secondary has been good this season, but if this game does become a shootout, it almost certainly is because of Thomas having a major role in this game.

QUARTERBACK

Josh Allen- $8,700- 3%

People don't like playing Josh Allen due to how difficult he makes it to fill out the rest of the roster. However, for him to be projected at just 3% this week is simply too low. Allen has two straight games of 40+ DraftKings points, 44 and 54 points in his last two games, and he looks to solidify as the MVP. This week, he's taking on a New England defense that has allowed big games this season to better quarterbacks that they've faced, as Tua Tagovailoa and Matthew Stafford have topped 27 DraftKings points in two of the last four games against the Patriots. The only question is whether New England can do enough offensively to force the Bills to keep throwing the ball instead of taking a conservative game plan if they get out to a lead.

Caleb Williams- $5,500- 7%

Caleb Williams and the Bears are going to need to have a pass-heavy approach against the Lions this week after the Lions' secondary is struggling due to the injury to Carlton Davis. The Lions are starting rookies Terrion Arnold and Kindle Vidor, both of who have been awful this season. We saw Caleb Williams have one of his best games of the season the first time these two teams met when he threw for 256 yards and three touchdowns while adding 39 yards rushing the first time these two teams met. This game should be a back-and-forth type game, as Chicago will be unable to stop Detroit's offense this week and force the Bears to go to a pass-heavy approach similar to what we saw in the second half of the Thanksgiving game.

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Michael Penix Jr.-$4,500- 15%

Michael Penix Jr. is a rookie making his first start, which is never something that we normally want to target. However, people are going to be looking at Penix this week because he's minimum-priced, and this is a slate that does not have a significant amount of value plays. The biggest issue for Penix is that he is not mobile, which is typically the only way that we want to start a rookie quarterback. The matchup is a somewhat neutral one, as the Giants had been a very good pass defense for most of the year before being exposed last week, allowing Lamar Jackson to throw for 290 yards and five touchdowns. The Giants have struggled against the run, which could be something that the Falcons look to a run-heavy approach in a must-win for Atlanta.

Running Back

Jahmyr Gibbs- $7,500- 30%

It's weird to say, but 30% for a running back is just far too low. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Gibbs ended up closer to 50% this week, given the injury to David Montgomery and the Bears' poor run defense. Chicago is allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. Jahmyr Gibbs had already been the fifth-best running back in terms of DraftKings points this season. Now, he has the committee removed, as David Montgomery will miss the remainder of the season. The 2023 first-round pick is in the perfect position to carry teams down the stretch this season. He will be in 100% of my personal lineups this week and the first name that I'm clicking on.

James Conner- $7,100- 23%

Targeting running backs against Carolina should be something you immediately look to do. They are missing three of their top four middle linebackers and are starting Jon Rhattigan, who has been a special teams player throughout his career and not someone who has shown he can play at an NFL level as he was behind undrafted free agents on the depth chart. This is a team that has allowed 100-yard rushers in five of their last six games as Rico Dowdle, Saquon Barkley, Bucky Irving, Tyrone Tracy Jr., and Alvin Kamara all topped 100 yards. The Panthers have the worst defensive line and the worst linebackers in the NFL now that they've had as many injuries as they've had.

Bijan Robinson- $8,100- 17%

Bijan Robinson is a great pivot off of Michael Penix Jr.. Robinson has topped 100 rushing yards in three of his last five games while averaging 4.3 receptions per game over his last seven games. Over the course of the season, the Giants have been one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. However, over the last two weeks, they shut down Derrick Henry and Alvin Kamara, holding Henry to just 67 yards and Kamara to 44 yards. If Penix struggles early on, the Falcons could very easily go with a run-heavy approach in a must-win game this week.

Patrick Taylor Jr..- $5,200- 6%

Patrick Taylor Jr. gets his chance as one of the few value running backs on this slate. There's not much analysis needed for Taylor other than a trust factor when it comes to Kyle Shanahan's running game. We've seen Christian McCaffrey, Jordan Mason, and Isaac Guerendo all succeeding in this system. For Taylor, he only has 14 carries on the season, but the team brought him in from Green Bay this offseason. Taylor has had limited playing time throughout his career but has shown that he is more than a capable receiver and runner, as he averaged 4.4 yards per carry last season. He's not a player who is going to run for 150 yards, but if he can run for 60-70 yards, catch 4-5 passes, and find the end-zone, he's a player who can get close to 20 points this week. The biggest issue for Taylor is the matchup, as Miami has been one of the most improved defenses in the NFL after struggling early on this season.

Jonathan Taylor- $6,900- 7%

Jonathan Taylor was solid last week as he topped 100 yards against a good Denver defense. However, he's priced down this week because he dropped the ball as he was crossing the goal line and did not score the touchdown. If he scored that touchdown, he would easily be $500 more expensive this week. Taylor has 47 carries over the last two weeks. This week, Taylor gets to take on a Titans defense that started the year strong but was torched last week by Chase Brown, allowing 26.3 DraftKings points while also allowing Brian Robinson Jr and Chris Rodriguez Jr. to combine for over 200 yards in Week 13. At 7% rostered, he's the type of player that has as much upside as a runner as just about any running back this week. The only downside with Taylor is that he has not been involved in the passing game with Anthony Richardson at quarterback, so he's going to need 100+ yards and at least one touchdown to get to value.

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Chase Brown- $7,200- 28%

Cleveland's run defense has been the bright spot on the 3-11 team. They have not allowed a running back to top 100 yards all season and are allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs all season. In their first matchup, Brown was held for 44 yards on 15 carries as he had one of his least productive games on the season. With Dorian Thompson-Robinson starting, this could be a low-scoring game that limits the upside of just about all players in this one. Chase Brown did see 28 touches last week, but his volume has been volatile recently, as he has 15, 20, and 28 touches over the last three games. If his volume dips back into the 18-20 touch range, he's simply not going to be worth the price, and the roster percentage is 28%.

Wide Receiver

As a reminder, these are receivers who are not in the stacking section. Most of the top-end receivers are going to be listed in stacks; these are more under-the-radar type receivers. Refer to the chart at the bottom of this article to reference the quality of each play.

Josh Downs- $4,900- 12%

The volume was there last week for Josh Downs, but the production disappointed as he caught just three of his eight targets in a difficult matchup against Denver last week. Sub-$5k, you're getting a number one receiver who had seven receptions for 66 yards and a touchdown the first time these two teams met. Downs has been the top target for Richardson when they're both healthy, and he has 60 yards or more in 7 games this season. Tennessee's defense has allowed four receivers to top 70 yards in the last three games as their secondary has been absolutely ravaged by injuries with L'Jarius Snead and Quandre Diggs are both on IR.

Puka Nacua- $8,000- 10%

Nacua is expensive but has been one of the best receivers in the NFL over the second half of the season. Nacua has 90 yards or more in five of his last six games as he's separated himself as the number one receiver in Los Angeles compared to Cooper Kupp. Even in a game where Matthew Stafford threw for just 160 yards, Nacua still was productive, as he had 97 of the 160 yards last week in a difficult matchup against San Francisco. As mentioned in the stacking section, the Jets have struggled to stop the pass as of late, but number one receivers have torched them of late. Brian Thomas Jr. had 105 yards and two touchdowns, while Tyreek Hill had 115 yards in a touchdown in Week 14.  

Malik Nabers- $6,100- 25%

Malik Nabers is going to be the highest-rostered receiver this week for a good reason. At $6,100, the Giants are facing one of the worst secondaries in the NFL, as Atlanta has struggled all year stopping passing games. With Tommy DeVito returning at quarterback, expect a heavy usage of Nabers once again, as the receiver has at least ten targets in six of his last seven games. Atlanta has allowed three wide receivers to top 100 yards over the last three games, including two 30+ point performances to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. While Nabers' upside is limited due to Devito's struggles this season, he still should have 100 yards and a touchdown upside. This is a player who no one wanted to play last week, and we were on him. Now, his price has dropped after a 24-point performance, which is just too cheap.

Keenan Allen- $5,300- 9%

We saw Keenan Allen dominate this first matchup as he found the end-zone twice on Thanksgiving. The Bears are going to be forced into a pass-heavy game this week, and looking at both D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen are the likely targets. The Lions have some interesting decisions to make this week, as with no Carlton Davis, they're going to have to decide whether they want to keep their safeties back to avoid the big plays or whether they are comfortable bringing Brian Branch down into the slot to cover Keenan Allen. Ultimately, in their first meeting, the Lions chose to keep Branch back, allowing the underneath slot passes from Allen as they covered him with a lot of Amik Robertson on about 70% of plays and obvious passing downs. Robertson has been one of the worst cornerbacks in football, but the Lions are going to want to keep the safeties deep to prevent the explosive play from D.J. Moore.

High Upside Cheap Receivers-

Malik Washington- $3,700- 4%

Dyami Brown- $3,400- 1%

Jalen Coker- $4,200- 2%

Keon Coleman- $4,700- 0%

Tre Tucker- $3,900-2%

Tight End

Brenton Strange- $3,600-23%

Brenton Strange is a player that, with no Evan Engram, should once again be in line for a significant workload. Strange had 11 receptions for 73 yards. It's hard to imagine that he will once again have 11 receptions, but even if he can get 6-8 targets at $3,600, he's going to have one of the highest floors on this slate. The Jaguars are extremely limited in receiving options, with Brian Thomas Jr. and Parker Washington as the only healthy players.

David Njoku- $5,200- 1%

With the injury situation that Njoku had early on in the week, along with Dorian Thompson Robinson starting for Cleveland, no one is going to want to play David Njoku. However, tight ends have over 40% of receiving yards in Thompson-Robinson's starts dating back to last season. Njoku has at least 40 yards in every game that Thompson-Robinson has started. At $5,200, he's going to need more than just 40 yards, but if the game script forces the Browns into a pass-heavy approach, you could see Njoku benefit against a bad Bengals defense.

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