DraftKings GPP Domination Week 15

Slate Overview- Week 15 Thoughts

While this slate is a 12-game slate, it feels more like a seven or eight-game slate this week. Despite being great actual football games, especially at the 4 PM start times, there are a lot of teams on this slate that may only have one or zero GPP-relevant players. Especially at the running back position this week as while there are some great plays at the top, it is going to be somewhat narrow when it comes to building out a roster as teams like Washington, Cleveland, New England, Kansas City, Jacksonville, New York Jets, New York Giants, Denver, and Los Angeles Chargers all have running back situations that we largely want to avoid. Meanwhile, there are other teams where their running backs are just in horrendous matchups, such as Pittsburgh and Buffalo. This is going to concentrate rosters to very similar builds with people targeting a combination of six to eight running backs and therefore the players at the quarterback and wide receiver positions are going to be similar due to the salary ranges that people are going to be boxed in to work off of.

So, how do we approach this for this week? Look at the roster percentage on Footballguys to determine if there are any of the lower-rostered running backs that you’re comfortable taking in Week 15. If there are, great, problem is somewhat solved as you can create a different lineup build assuming that player is in a different price range than the popular running backs. If they are in the same price range, you likely are not helping yourself other than just creating uniqueness at that one position.

Another way to create a different lineup build is to take four wide receivers and take just two of those running backs. This is something that you should be doing most weeks anyway, given the PPR setup on DraftKings, but plenty of people still take three running backs as if they are playing a cash game or their local fantasy football league. Taking two tight ends is possible on this slate, but not really all that advisable as there are not the elite plays at the tight end position that we’ve seen on other slates recently.

Finally, be willing to take risks. Taking a low-priced tight end, or a wide receiver under $4k can pay off tremendously if it means you can fit a Ja’marr Chase or Nico Collins in your lineup and those players have their ceiling game. Football is a game of randomness and variance at times and while projections and optimizers will help you build better lineups over the long-run, there’s often very little difference between players who are within 1-2 points of each other from a projection standpoint.

Key Injuries for Week 15

• George Pickens has once again been ruled out this week. Pickens was out last week, and the receiving group was largely a mess. No player had more than three receptions, and no player had more than five targets, including Jaylen Warren. If there’s a player who could become interesting this week, it would be Scotty Miller, who is minimum priced at $3,000. Miller saw 52% of the snaps last week after being active for just twice since Week 8. Miller has shown that he can be a deep threat throughout his career, dating back to his rookie season in 2019. He’s a deep-shot punt play, but if he catches a long touchdown at the minimum price, he could reach GPP value.
• Cedric Tillman is out this week with a concussion, while David Njoku looks like he’s going to miss as well but is still questionable. Jerry Jeudy at $6,200 is once again going to be popular on this slate, but Jordan Akins at just $2,700 could be intriguing. He’s a high-risk tight end, but the Browns in Kevin Stefanski’s scheme have heavily utilized the tight ends throughout his tenure, as evidenced by Njoku having 16 receptions over his last two games.
• Breece Hall is questionable this week. It looks like he’s going to give it a go, but the expectations need to be limited here. The Jets are in talent evaluation mode at this point, and giving both Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis snaps for the 3-10 Jets seems likely especially with Hall being less than 100%. 
• Evan Engram was ruled out with a shoulder injury. The Jaguars’ passing attack is completely decimated, with just Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington, and Travis Etienne Jr. as primary receivers. Thomas is the guy who is going to get the biggest boost as Etienne doesn’t have enough touches as a running back to trust; while Washington had 12 targets two weeks ago, he had just two targets last week.
• Bucky Irving looks like he’s going to miss this week. Rachaad White should be in a great spot this week at just $5,800 against a Chargers run defense that has been struggling, as they’ve allowed 100 yards or more in two of the last three games.
• Noah Brown is out this week. The good news for the Commanders is that they could get Jamison Crowder back this week after the receiver has missed the last ten games. Dyami Brown is likely to be a player to target coming off of a five-target game last week, while Terry McLaurin certainly should see an upgrade as well.
• Derek Carr is doubtful with a hand injury and concussion. If he misses, Jake Haener is going to get the start. This likely just completely kills this offensive upside this week, as Haener is completing just 48% of his passes this season.  
• Drew Lock is doubtful with a foot injury. Tommy DeVito will get the start this week. DeVito has thrown for over 200 yards just once in his career in his seven starts. This largely 
• Tony Pollard is questionable this week with an ankle injury after not practicing all week. If he were to miss, Tyjae Spears would be one of the best value plays on this slate against the Bengals’ defense. It seems likely that Pollard is going to play as he hasn’t practiced for most of the season, but he has played every game this year.

Stacks

Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Calvin Ridley

The high-end quarterbacks are going overlooked this week. At $7,300, Joe Burrow is underpriced compared to some of the more expensive options, but he’s been amongst the most consistent players in the NFL. Burrow has at least 25 DraftKings points in five straight games while topping 30 in three of those five games. Benefitting from Joe Burrow’s hot streak has been Ja’Marr Chase, who has emerged as the best wide receiver in football over the second half of the season. Chase has 15 touchdowns this season, including eight touchdowns over his last four games. He has ten or more targets in five of his last six games, including an 18-target performance last week. He’s expensive at $8,400, but in terms of upside, there is no player on this slate that has as much upside as Chase, who has three games with 44 DraftKings points or more, including a 58.4 performance in Week 11.