DraftKings GPP Domination Week 10

Slate Overview- Week 10 Thoughts- 

The 2024 season seems to yo-yo between weeks where there are a significant amount of value options, to weeks like this one where there is seemingly zero value plays, particularly at running back this week. As of now, there is only one playable running back under $6,000 which is Austin Ekeler as Brian Robinson Jr is out. What this does on weeks like this is that people will tend to have very similar lineup builds. More people will prioritize spending up at the running back position when the price differential between the high-end and low-end running backs are similar. For example, there’s just a $1,400 difference between a player like Rico Dowdle and Jonathan Taylor or a 2,100 difference between Dowdle and Saquon Barkley who is the most expensive running back on the slate.

Meanwhile, at the wide receiver position, you can find playable players all the way down at the low $4k range creating a significant price differential between the high-end receiver and low-end. Thus, more people are going to find the way to pay up at running back when evaluating the decision between players like Najee Harris/Rico Dowdle or Alvin Kamara, Jonathan Taylor, Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley.

So, how should you approach this week? Prioritizing some of the high-end wide receivers such as Justin Jefferson or A.J. Brown who are going to be significantly lower rostered than a week where there is a lot of value.  Playing a wide receiver at the flex position in GPP’s seems like the right move this week just given the premium that you have to pay for running backs this week. You could also consider playing two tight ends to be unique. Both Cade Otton and Travis Kelce are very underpriced, as is Hunter Henry, who is at $3,900.  

Key Injuries for Week 10

• Dak Prescott was placed on IR with a hamstring injur this week. Cooper Rush will get the start for Dallas. At $5,100 he’s not cheap enough to be in consideration this week, and we likely need to take a wait and see approach. Jake Ferguson is likely the only player who is in consideration in this offense although at $5,000 he’s likely a little expensive, but could be a nice savings compared to the higher-priced tight ends.
• Chris Olave will miss this week and may be placed on IR after suffering his second concussion of the season. This will funnel most of the offense through Alvin Kamara who had 35 touches in Week 9. Taysom Hill is a high-risk play, but at $4,000 should be strongly considered as a savings play.
• Drake London is questionable with a hip injury. Atlanta should be able to move the ball however they want against New Orleans’ defense, but Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts would see the biggest benefit if London would miss. Darnell Mooney is expensive at $6,500 this week, but could have upside as well.
• The Bills are a team to monitor this week. Keon Coleman has already been ruled out, while Amari Cooper is still dealing with a wrist injury that caused him to miss last week’s game. Cooper was a limited participant in practice this week. Khalil Shakir at $6,000 is going to go under-the-radar because of his $6,000 price point, but could be a nice mid-tier receiver.
• Michael Pittman Jr has been ruled out this week with a back injury. Josh Downs has been outstanding with Joe Flacco at quarterback and should be a strong consideration this week even as the price has increased at $6,200.
• Trevor Lawrence will miss this week with a shoulder injury. Mac Jones will get the start for Jacksonville. Even in a favorable matchup, this kills the upside of just about every player on the Jaguars this week. Evan Engram is at least in consideration at $5,300
• JuJu Smith-Schuster will miss another game this week with a hamstring injury. This should narrow the target volume to both DeAndre Hopkins and Travis Kelce this week, both of who are fairly priced as they get the traditional primetime boost where they had big games in a primetime game after the pricing had already been locked.
• Will Levis will start this week for Tennessee. This creates some significant risk for Calvin Ridley this week who otherwise would be a top play this week as Ridley and Levis just have not been on the same page in any of his starts this season.

Stacks

Brock Purdy, George Kittle, Cade Otton

Brock Purdy and the 49ers are taking on Tampa Bay who are quickly emerging as one of the league’s worst pass defenses in recent weeks. On the year, Tampa Bay is allowing the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, but as of late they’ve been even worse. Over their last five games, Tampa Bay has allowed at least three passing touchdowns in four of those five games while averaging allowing 339 passing yards per game in those four contests. The only game that they failed to allow three passing touchdowns was against Spencer Rattler who still had his best day as a quarterback throwing 243 yards and a touchdown for the rookie. Since Brandon Aiyuk’s injury, George Kittle has been the top receiving option for Brock Purdy. Over the last two weeks, Kittle has 90 yards or more in each of those two games and last week had 128 yards and in their last game he had 128 yards and a touchdown prior to the bye week.

Cade Otton is underpriced at $5,500 this week. Since Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both went down to injury, Otton has at least 75 yards in all three games while scoring three touchdowns in those games as well. With no Talafoa Hufanga for the 49ers who may be out for the season, this could be an opportunity for the tight end to put pressure on this inexperienced safety unit. Going with the two tight-end approach is a way to get unique, as most people who stack this game will likely go with Deebo Samuel Sr. instead of Kittle just because of the individual models that force the wide receiver and quarterback pairing.

Justin Herbert, Ladd McConkey, and Calvin Ridley

If you’re looking for a cheap stack this week that will allow you to spend up for some of the high-end running backs or even go up to Justin Jefferson, this stack will meet that criteria. Justin Herbert is underpriced at $5,200 as this is a quarterback who has improved over the last three weeks. It took a few weeks for the Chargers to figure out how to build this offense, but Herbert now has 275 passing yards or more in each of his last three games. While Herbert has done a good job distributing the ball amongst his receivers, McConkey is the top option in Tennessee. The rookie has averaged seven targets over his last five games. The matchup is a favorable one against Tennessee who are starting Roger McCreary as the slot corner who has struggled throughout his career. 

For Calvin Ridley, this would be better if Mason Rudolph were starting, but it does pose some risk with Will Levis starting this week. Ridley does have 8 or more targets in each of his last four games and will be the primary receiver this week against a team that have allowed three receivers to top 70 yards over the last two weeks. 

Sam Darnold, Justin Jefferson, Brian Thomas Jr.

Justin Jefferson has to be salivating at this matchup. After his friend and former college teammate Ja’Marr Chase had 264 yards and 3 touchdowns, Jefferson now gets to face off against the Jaguars who have allowed the third most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season. For Jefferson, we haven’t seen that slate breaking performance yet this season, but Jefferson has topped 150 yards at least three times in each of the last two seasons. Last week we saw Jefferson have 137 yards which was a season-high against Indianapolis, but should have an opportunity this week to have a massive performance against the Jaguars.

Meanwhile, on the other side, Minnesota has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season. We haven’t seen Mac Jones in a competitive game this season, but the quarterback shouldn’t be all that much of a dropoff compared to Trevor Lawrence who has been horrendous this season. Minnesota has allowed 100 yards or more to a wide receiver in five of the last seven games with Stefon Diggs having 94 yards back in Week 3.

Cooper Rush, CeeDee Lamb, Saquon Barkley- Longshot

There’s a specific gamescript where this could be a GPP winner. This is all about Philadelphia getting out to an early lead with Saquon Barkley and forcing the Cowboys to throw heavily throughout this game. At $5,100, Rush is not as cheap as we would typically like for a backup quarterback, but this will drive his ownership to about 2% this week. He struggled last week, but that was also with CeeDee Lamb dealing with an injury throughout the game. There is a scenario where the Cowboys lean heavily on Lamb and try to build the relationship between Rush and Lamb especially now that Dak Prescott will miss the remainder of the season.

For Barkley, the thinking here is quite simple. Philadelphia are 7.5 point road favorites facing a team that may start slow this week as they bring in Cooper Rush for his first start in 2024. If Philadelphia gets out to a big lead, this could be a run-heavy game plan for the Eagles this week. Dallas is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs on the season. Without Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence, this is a defense that has allowed 19 or more DraftKings points to number one running backs in each of their last three games. When facing elite running backs similar to Barkley, they’ve been even worse as Derrick Henry and Alvin Kamara had 33 and 47 DraftKings points against this defense.

Position Breakdown

The purpose of this section is to discuss how opponents are going to approach their lineups as well as the top plays at each position. Note a player that is not mentioned does not necessarily mean that he is a poor player. Oftentimes, when players are roughly the same each week, it's difficult to mention them in every article. Also, players listed in the Stacks section will not be listed twice down here, as we’ve already established the analysis for them.

QUARTERBACK

High-End Play

Jayden Daniels- $7,500- 3%

We have started to see a decline in Jayden Daniels’ rushing upside as he has averaged just 8.6 rushing attempts since suffering a rib injury against Carolina. This was a player who averaged 12.6 rushing attempts in his first three games of the season. Even if he has a declined rushing attempts, this is still a player who at 3% rostered is going to have upside, especially with Brian Robinson Jr out once again this week. The matchup is a difficult one against Pittsburgh who is allowing the second-fewest points to opposing quarterbacks. However, this is factored into his 3% roster percentage. The reality is that if you go back and watch Anthony Richardson against this defense prior to his injury, he was carving them up as he was 3-4 for 71 yards with 3 carries for 24 yards. The Steelers have not faced a mobile quarterback to the likes of Daniels for an entire game so it will be a new test for this defense.

Value Play

Caleb Williams- $5,600- 4%

Caleb Williams had a tough road start last week against Arizona to take the Bears to a 4-4 record. This week, the rookie is coming back home to take on the 2-7 Patriots in what has turned into a must-win for the Bears this week. Williams has been up and down throughout the season, but has shown upside in his last two home starts as he has topped 25 DraftKings points in each of the last two home games.

Mac Jones- $4,400- 10%

It’s easy to write-off Mac Jones after the end of his tenure in New England fizzled out. However, the matchup this week could not be any better as Jones takes on one of the league’s worst secondaries in Minnesota who are allowing the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season and are allowing 271 passing yards per game which is fourth in the NFL this year. For Jones, we saw him make a Pro Bowl his rookie season, but the Patriots never were able to build receiving options around the quarterback. This is by far the most talented roster that he has had on the offensive side of the ball, and at $4,400 you do not need him to do much in order to achieve value this week.

Running Back

Alvin Kamara- $8,100- 30%

Chris Olave will miss this week with a concussion leaving the Saints extremely thin at playmakers as Rashid Shaheed is also out. At wide receiver this week for New Orleans they have Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mason Tipton, and Dante Pettis. This will be as many touches as Alvin Kamara can handle. Last week, the running back had 35 touches in a 23-22 loss. As long as the Saints can keep this game close, we can once expect that Kamara will have over 25 touches fairly easily and based on his talent alone $8,100 is a fantastic price for that volume.

Bijan Robinson- $7,700- 16%

Bijan Robinson’s role has completely shifted over the last two weeks. While he’s been involved in the passing game for most of the year, over the last two weeks he has 7 receptions in each of those two games. If he’s able to duplicate this in Week 10, that’s starting with a minimum of 10 points regardless of any touchdowns, or rushing yards that he’s able to achieve. We have to question at this point where the Saints mindset is currently at. They traded long-time corner Marcus Lattimore, linebacker Demario Davis is about to turn 36 years old and his play is deteriorating quickly, and the defensive line has been abysmal as of late. Since Week 6, the Saints are allowing the most fantasy points to opposing running backs while facing below-average competition as they faced Bucky Irving, Javonte Williams, J.K. Dobbins, and Chuba Hubbard. Bijan Robinson is several tiers above all four of those players and should have a massive upside this week.

Jonathan Taylor- $7,500- 11%

The path to competing with the Buffalo Bills is through the rushing attack. This defense has allowed 20 DraftKings points to five running backs this season, while De’Von Achane and Derrick Henry both topped 30 points this season. With Michael Pittman Jr out this week, the Colts are likely to go to a run-first offense to try to keep this game close. When Taylor has been healthy, he’s been great as he’s topped 100 rushing yards three times this season, while also being utilized as a receiver averaging two receptions per game over the last five weeks. This is a strong offensive line led by Quenton Nelson and left tackle Bernhard Raimann.

Najee Harris- $6,200-11%

Harris is getting no respect this week. This is a player who has at least 100 yards in three straight games. While he has a history of struggling in the receiving game, he has at least two receptions in two of his last three games with Russell Wilson as the starter. Facing a Washington defense that has been one of the worst run-stopping units in the NFL, especially against running backs who run between the tackles as Derrick Henry, D’Andre Swift, and James Conner all topped 100 yards against this defense as the defensive line is one of the worst in the NFL while their linebackers are able to stop most of the lateral off-tackle runs.

Fade: Aaron Jones- $6,700- 26%

We’ve seen this the last couple of weeks where the models love Aaron Jones. This continues to be confusing, as Jones just has not shown GPP winning upside this season. He has just one 100-yard rushing performance this season, has just three total touchdowns on the season, is averaging just 2.5 receptions per game over the last four games, and is not overly cheap at $6,700. Jacksonville has struggled against running backs this season, but it has primarily been against pass-catching running backs as they’re only allowing 92 rushing yards per game. Unless Jones can break a trend here of recent struggles, he’s just not a GPP play at 26% rostered. If he was projected to be 10-15%, you could consider him, but for a running back at 26%, he needs a far better path to GPP viability than what Jones has this week.  

Wide Receiver

DeAndre Hopkins- $5,300- 16%

The price is fantastic for Hopkins this week at $5,300. Hopkins is almost certainly the best wide receiver that Patrick Mahomes II has played with since Tyreek Hill, and while it took a week for him to get acclimated in Kansas City, he had a huge performance last week with 8 receptions for 86 yards and 2 touchdowns. This is a scenario where that performance is not built into the price as it was a Primetime game for the Chiefs last week. He’s at least $1,000 underpriced this week.

Davante Adams- $7,000- 21%

Every game is a must-win for the Jets at 3-6, but there is some encouraging signs heading into this Week 10 game against Arizona. After a few slow weeks for the newly acquired Adams, his performance last week did not feel forced as it did early in the season. He seemed to be naturally a part of this offense as he had 11 targets, catching 7 of them for 91 yards and a touchdown. Both Adams and teammate Garrett Wilson are strong plays as both players had at least 10 targets last week, but the difference is just the red zone history that Aaron Rodgers has with Adams and the more time they’ve spent together this season the more that they should be able to get to an even higher level than even last week.

Noah Brown- $4,300- 14%

If you’re looking to find a cheap wide receiver to save some salary this week, Noah Brown could be that guy. While his stats are skewed because of the Hail Mary in Week 8, he responded strongly in Week 9 as Brown had 5 receptions for 60 yards against the Giants. With Jayden Daniels still dealing with a rib injury, it likely will help the passing upside. Brown who is the team’s big play receiver will likely get the more favorable matchup against Donte Jackson as Terry McLaurin will draw the attention of both Joey Porter Jr. and Minkah Fitzpatrick.

Rakim Jarrett- $3,600- <1%

With no Chris Godwin or Mike Evans this week, the Buccaneers receivers are a mess. Jalen McMillan will also miss this week which will elevate Rakim Jarrett to once again play a significant role in this offense as long as McMillan is definitively out. Jarrett played on 84% of snaps last week, and while he had just one reception, what was encouraging was his Week 8 performance where he had 3 receptions for 58 yards against Atlanta. With Sterling Shepard and Cade Otton going to get most of the focus for Tampa Bay, Jarrett could be a sneaky play this week.

Other Receiving Options:

Sterling Shepard- $4,100- 10%
Calvin Ridley- $5,700- 6%
Van Jefferson- $3,600- 2%

Tight End

There are several great plays this week at the tight end position. While most of the ownership is going to be centered around those six players (Will Dissly, Travis Kelce, Hunter Henry, George Kittle, Taysom Hill, and Cade Otton), the way to get different this week is to build a two tight end lineup. All of these players are under-priced when comparing them to their running back and wide receiver counterparts.  

Travis Kelce- $6,000- 9%

Kelce is underpriced this week at $6,000 and should be much higher than 9% rostered. He’s a fantastic flex play if you wanted to punt at the tight end position. Over the last two weeks, since JuJu Smith-Schuster has been out, Kelce has 24 receptions in those two games averaging 95 yards with one total touchdown over those two games. It’s a situation where his price would be at least $1,000 higher if he had not played on a Primetime game last week.

Taysom Hill- $4,000- 8%

Even more than last week, Taysom Hill is a fantastic play in Week 10. The Saints simply do not have many options to catch the ball outside of Alvin Kamara. Hill caught four passes last week while also running the ball five times with Chris Olave going out early last week.

Hunter Henry- $3,900- 10%

Since Drake Maye took over as the starting quarterback, Henry has at least 14 DraftKings points in all three of Maye’s complete games. Henry would be a top punt play at the flex position and safer than any wide receiver sub-4k this week.