Slate Overview- Week 7 Thoughts- Bye Weeks and Bad Offenses

This week, we only have a 10-game slate without some of the league’s best offenses, as there’s a London game, two Monday Night games, the Thursday/Sunday Night games, and two bye teams. This has created a scenario where the amount of value plays that we have on this slate is largely limited to some players in some very questionable spots. So, what we are going to see is that those players who are “value” plays are going to be very highly rostered in order for people to still build a stars/scrubs build. Take a player such as Dare Ogunbowale. At $4,300, he’s anticipated to be rostered for 15-20% of rosters. That could be inflated on people speculating that Joe Mixon is going to be out this week or limited, but if Mixon plays, that is a crazy roster percentage for a player who is averaging 2.5 yards-per-carry simply because Cam Akers got traded. A similar play is Grant Calcaterra. While he had a significant amount of hype in college, he’s anticipated to be around 20% rostered when he’s the fourth option in this offense with Dallas Goedert out. We were only interested in Dallas Goedert when both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith were out; with both of those players in, there’s no reason to target a 20% rostered Grant Calcaterra even at $3,200. Finally, Jerry Jeudy is going to be another player in this boat. Jeudy, at $4,800 who, is anticipated to see more volume based on the Amari Cooper trade. Jeudy has just three targets in each of his last two games. By targeting Elijah Moore over Jeudy, you can create uniqueness on the chance that Moore is the receiver who benefits the most with Cooper no longer with the team.

Essentially, we have two options this week:

1. Build a balanced lineup.  Avoiding some of the highest cost players is a strategy that will make your lineup different. Players such as Justin Jefferson, Malik Nabers, and Jayden Daniels are all projected to be 20% or higher this week. By avoiding them and going with a more balanced approach will allow you to have upside at every single position instead of relying on so many points from those high-end players and the bottom-end guys just doing enough for a GPP win.
2. Find different low-end players who might have an upside. The reality is that a lot of people in GPP’s think the exact same. They’re often using a projection set that is not their own, and if we can find players with upside that are going under the radar, this could lead to a victorious week.

Some players that could be worth targeting are:

• Elijah Moore- $3,200- 4%
• DJ Turner- $3,400- 1%
• Tyler Allgeier- $5,100- 3%
• Ray-Ray McCloud III- $4,400- 5%

These aren’t necessarily great plays, but they’re playing against certain narratives that will allow you to be different this week.

Injuries Create Opportunity:

• Tyjae Spears will miss this week with a hamstring injury. In a positive matchup against the Bills, Tony Pollard should be a top play for Week 7 at just $7,100.
• Jerome Ford is out this week for Cleveland. With Nick Chubb returning, Cleveland’s backfield is interesting; if Nick Chubb were to get a normal workload, he would immediately be a top play this week at $6,000. However, it’s difficult to know, coming back from a knee injury, whether he will be ready to go this week.
• Aaron Jones is questionable this week with a hamstring. If he’s unable to go, Ty Chandler would likely see a bulk of the carries this week, but the team did sign Cam Akers. Chandler hasn’t been great for the Vikings in limited playing time, and he’s not overly cheap at $5,600 this week.
• Jonathan Taylor is out once again with an ankle sprain. This is likely a pass situation again, as Trey Sermon has not been great for the Colts, and they’re involving Tyler Goodson more. Sermon is averaging just 2.5 yards per carry and not catching the ball.
• Malik Nabers has cleared protocol and will start for the Giants. At $7,500, he’s expensive, but he is one of the top wide receivers this week in a positive matchup against Philadelphia.
• Dallas Goedert is out this week. This should elevate Grant Calcaterra to playable status at just $3,200.
• Jakobi Meyers is doubtful this week with an ankle injury. This should make Brock Bowers one of the top tight-end plays, while Tre Tucker and DJ Tucker are intriguing value plays at the wide receiver position. Of the two, DJ Turner is the guy that you should focus on this week.
• Cooper Kupp is questionable this week. If he were to play, at $7,900, is an intriguing play this week as he’s largely going to be overlooked as he will be rostered around 6-7% as of Saturday.
• Will Levis is out this week. Mason Rudolph will get the start for Tennessee as Levis recovers from his shoulder injury. This injury largely does not have a significant impact, maybe it has a little bit more upside for the passing game as Levis has struggled and has not looked healthy, but it's still going to be a low-upside offense. 

Stacks

This article has been red hot, as our top stack last week was Jayden Daniels, Derrick Henry, and Terry McLaurin last week.

Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, Drake London

Both quarterbacks are going to be popular in this game, as it is anticipated to be one of the highest-scoring games of the week. Geno Smith, at the moment, leads the NFL this season as he has 1,778 yards, with the next closest player at 1,629. The issue for Smith has been the lack of touchdowns. The Seahawks are scoring 24 points per game, but Smith has just six touchdowns on the season. With all of the yards that he’s throwing for, one of two things are going to happen. He’s either going to stop throwing for as many yards, or the touchdowns are going to start to come. With all of the weapons that the Seahawks’ offense has, as well as a favorable matchup, it’s reasonable to think that he has multiple touchdown upside this week. Smith is also on pace for a career-high in rushing yards, as he’s averaging 24 rushing yards per game in 2024. With Ken Walker III also being a late add to the injury report, this should only help Smith’s upside even if Walker is able to go.       

For Drake London, he’s been the biggest beneficiary of the Falcons offense and Kirk Cousins. The former first-round pick has ten or more targets in each of his last three games and is facing a Seahawks’ defense that has allowed back-to-back 100-yard performances to opposing number-one receivers as Deebo Samuel Sr. and Darius Slayton both hit the milestone. The Seahawks’ secondary is depleted with TaRiq Woolen and Tre Brown out this week, which should only help London’s upside.

Sam Darnold, Justin Jefferson, and Jameson Williams

The Minnesota vs Detroit game should be one of the highest-scoring games of the season. Both teams are funnel defenses with some of the best run defenses in the NFL while also having some of the worst pass defenses in the league. Detroit has allowed two 300-yard passers so far this season, as Matthew Stafford and Geno Smith both topped 310 yards. On the other side of the ball, Minnesota has struggled against receivers. They’re allowing the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. While Amon-Ra St. Brown would be ideal here in this stack, Jameson Williams also has tremendous upside. Williams has topped 75 yards in four of his five games this season as the former first-round pick is emerging as a top receiving option heading into his third season in the NFL. The only issue for Williams is the number of targets as he has just 4, 2, and 3 targets over the last three games, but at 23 yards-per-catch, all it takes is one catch for Williams to have scored a long touchdown.

Under the Radar Stack

Daniel Jones, Malik Nabers, A.J. Brown

With there being little value this week, one way to get value is to look at Daniel Jones at quarterback. Jones has shown glimpses but just hasn’t put together a complete game this year to be completely GPP-viable. He’s been running the ball this season, as he has three games with 30 or more yards and has averaged 245 passing yards per game. This effectively is the equivalent of a non-mobile quarterback throwing for an average of 280 yards per game. The issue is that he hasn’t run for a touchdown yet this season, which is bringing down his stats. The rushing touchdowns are coming, however, as he has scored a rushing touchdown in 36% of his games over the last two seasons. Now, with getting Malik Nabers back this week, we should expect to see an upside that Jones has yet to see this season as they’ve developed chemistry and an offense around Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton, so adding one of the best young receivers back to the mix should only increase the upside of this team.

For Nabers, he’s a player who has averaged 15 targets in his last three games while topping 100 yards in two of his four games this season. At $7,500, he’s just the 7^th-highest priced receiver, which is likely $500 too low as he faces the Eagles, who are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.

Of the Eagles wide receivers, A.J. Brown looked tremendous in his return from injury last week. Brown had 116 yards and a touchdown last week, and in his two games this season, he has topped 110 yards in both games while scoring a touchdown in each. The Giants have struggled with number-one receivers as CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, DK Metcalf, and Ja’Marr Chase have all topped 70 yards against this defense.

Position Breakdown

The purpose of this section is to discuss how opponents are going to approach their lineups as well as the top plays at each position. Note, a player that is not mentioned does not necessarily mean that he is a poor play. Oftentimes, when players are roughly the same each week, it's difficult to mention them in every article. Also, players listed in the Stacks section, will not be listed twice down here, as we’ve already established the analysis on them.

QUARTERBACK

Brock Purdy- $6,400- 5%

People don’t like playing Brock Purdy in GPP’s. He’s consistently undervalued compared to his production and price. Purdy has the second-most passing yards in the NFL this season, as he has thrown for 250 yards or more in each of his last five games this season. This week, San Francisco is facing one of the best run defenses in the NFL, as Kansas City is allowing just 53 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. However, where we have seen them struggle is against the better quarterbacks this season. Lamar Jackson had 29.1 DraftKings points back in Week 1, while Joe Burrow had 18.2 DraftKings points in Week 2. This is a team under Steve Spagnuolo that blitzes frequently, and with that, mobile quarterbacks who can extend the play can give them trouble at times. With San Franciso having a number of different weapons along with the league’s best-left tackle, this could mitigate the blitz and allow Brock Purdy to get some one-on-one matchups for Deebo Samuel Sr. or Brandon Aiyuk.

C.J. Stroud- $7,100- 1%

This is just a system play. C.J. Stroud should never be 1% rostered in a GPP. Green Bay’s defense is largely a neutral one, but they have allowed good games to Sam Darnold (22.5), Jalen Hurts (19.4), and Will Levis (16.6). Stroud has thrown for 330 yards or more in two of his last three games and likely could have had a bigger game last week if not for being a blowout as he threw for three touchdowns against New England before the team just coasted to a 41-21 victory.

Andy Dalton- $5,200- 4%

Andy Dalton has cooled off since his first start, when he threw for 319 yards and three touchdowns in Week 3 against Las Vegas. Since then, he hasn’t topped 221 passing yards in the last three games. However, if there is a week for Dalton to get back to that big performance, it would be this week. Taking on a Washington defense that has been inconsistent throughout the season against the pass. Washington has allowed 22 DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks three times this season, and while Dalton doesn’t need 22, a Daniel Jones-type performance of 18.3 would allow you to spend up at some of the high-end options without sacrificing at other positions.

Running Back

Tony Pollard- $6,300-18%

With Tyjae Spears out, Tony Pollard should see a significant volume this week. Despite the team’s lack of passing offense, Pollard has been great this season as he has at least 60 yards rushing in four of his five games this season while also catching at least three passes in four of his five games this year. Buffalo’s run defense has been a problem for most of the season, as they’re allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. The Bills have allowed Breece Hall, Derrick Henry, Justice Hill, and De’Von Achane all top 20 DraftKings points over the last three weeks, with Henry amassing 38.9.

Brian Robinson Jr- $6,400- 8%

Carolina’s defense is completely depleted. They are without their top 7 defensive lineman and linebackers. At inside linebacker, they’re completely gutted as they already had one of the worst units in the NFL, and their top three players, Josey Jewell, Shaq Thompson, and Claudin Cherelus, are all out for this game. This was already the worst run defense in the NFL heading into this week, and without all of these players should make it very easy for Brian Robinson Jr this week. The only question for Robinson is whether his knee injury will limit his carries this week.

Nick Chubb- $6,000- 1%

This is an under-the-radar narrative-driven play. The Browns are largely waiving the white flag at this point in the season by trading Amari Cooper. For the 1-5 Browns, the question you have to ask is why they are bringing Nick Chubb back unless he is completely healthy. While they’re saying all the right things of we are going to ease Chubb back in, what happens if he comes out and has a big first drive? Are they really going to pull him or keep him on a snap count in their first home game in four weeks? This seems like a scenario where at 1% rostered, the opportunity is simply too great as we are talking about one of the best running backs in football for a team that has no playmakers. With Jerome Ford out, the Browns need someone to step up this week, and going with a run-heavy approach given their passing game struggles could make all the sense in the world.

Chuba Hubbard- 6,500- 30%

Hubbard is going to be highly rostered, but for good reason. This is a player that the algorithms are still mispricing simply because of his slow start with Bryce Young at quarterback. Hubbard has 90 rushing yards or more and at least four receptions in each of his four games with Andy Dalton at quarterback. This week, he gets to face a defense that we’ve been picking on each of the last couple of weeks. Washington is over-compensating to try to protect their abysmal secondary which has sacrificed the ability to stop the run. Washington has allowed 100 yards or more in two of their last three games. While 30% is not typically an ownership that we want to target, Hubbard is completely mispriced this week.

Wide Receiver

Tee Higgins- $6,400- 10%

Higgins hasn’t had the slate changing performance this season, but the signs are there that it could be coming. Over the last three games, Higgins has 10, 14, and 7 targets while topping 60 yards in each of those games. This week, the Bengals get the Browns and the one portion of the Browns defense that is still playing at an elite level is their run defense. Higgins is primarily going to be matched up against Martin Emerson Jr, who is among the worst cornerbacks in football this season. This is a premier matchup for Higgins to have a similar game as A.J. Brown, Terry McLaurin, and Malik Nabers all who had massive games against this Browns defense.

Amon-Ra St. Brown- $8,300- 9%

Choosing which high-end receiver that you’re going to target this week is a difficult decision. However, taking a player such as St. Brown is certainly an option even if you don’t stack this game. Minnesota has allowed the most passing yards this season as they have one of the game’s elite run defenses but are allowing 318 passing yards per game. For St. Brown, he’s struggled this season compared to his normal elite status, as the number of targets has decreased. Last week, despite the Lions scoring 47 points, St. Brown had just 4 receptions for 37 yards and a touchdown. However, the encouraging sign here was that they made a concerted effort to get St. Brown a touchdown at the end of the game. It’s risky compared to some of the other high-end options, but if Detroit struggles moving the ball on the ground, St. Brown should have a significant advantage through the air.

Tyreek Hill- $7,300- 3%

This is another play that is simply the field overreacting. While Tyler Huntley certainly is not a great thrower of the football, he has a tendency to lock onto a certain player. In Baltimore, that was always Mark Andrews, but it could be Tyreek Hill in Miami. The team is coming off of a bye week where they’ve certainly gained some chemistry. In their last game, Tyreek Hill had 10 targets which is an encouraging sign. More encouraging is that the Dolphins get to face the Colts who have been abysmal against the pass allowing 310 passing yards or more to Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence, and Caleb Williams with the latter two both topping 360 yards. With 10 or more targets this week, Hill could certainly have a big game despite the limitations with Huntley.

Elijah Moore- $3,200- 4%

With the Browns, we are looking for value with the Amari Cooper trade. At $3,200, Elijah Moore will be the number two option in Cleveland this week behind Jerry Jeudy. While Jeudy is certainly a strong play as well, getting a player near minimum value that at the very least should see five or six targets has to be considered. The Browns are in a talent evaluation mode as they approach who they will trade away compared to who they will keep. We saw last season that the Browns gave Moore an opportunity where he had 7 or more targets in four consecutive games as the number two receiver in this offense.

Fade: Tre Tucker- $4,200-18%

For some reason, Tre Tucker is trending to be 18% rostered this week. With Aidan O’Connell at quarterback, he has a tendency to narrow his receiving options locking in on one or two players. Over the six quarters that O’Connell has started the last two weeks, Tucker had two targets in the second half of the loss to Denver, and last week had 0 receptions with 2 targets. He’s simply not a part of this offense like he was with Gardner Minshew II at the moment.

Tight End

Travis Kelce- $6,300 10%

Playing Travis Kelce can be done in two different ways. You could pay up for him at the tight end position, but this is difficult and you’ll likely be forced to take a player such as Elijah Moore. You could also take Kelce as your flex option. Kelce has 7 and 9 receptions in each of the last two games since Rashee Rice went down with an injury. It’s clear who the number one receiver is in Kansas City, and while JuJu Smith-Schuster is going to get some love this week, he’s a high-risk type of player in a game that the Chiefs are going to have to throw the ball to have any chance against the 49ers. Expect Kelce to have 10 or more targets this week.

Colby Parkinson- $3,800 8%

Whether Cooper Kupp plays this week or not, Colby Parkinson should be in consideration. With the Rams having issues finding consistent receivers, it has been Parkinson who has stepped up with targets for the Rams. Over the last two weeks, Parkinson has 13 and 7 targets. He also second in the NFL in red zone targets with 6 this season tied with Travis Kelce.

 Player Chart