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Sunday Morning Update

Justin Fields appears he is going to start for Pittsburgh. This is both an upgrade to the Atlanta defense as well as making FIelds a great option this week given his rushing upside. This is a big opportunity for the projected backup to try to revitalize his career after being replaced in Chicago this offseason. 

Slate Overview- Week 1 Thoughts

Week 1 for GPP’s can be a fantastic way to pivot away from the crowd. Essentially the fantasy football industry has been waiting for Week 1 for 7 months, building up the players that they like or dislike. With that comes a perceived bias when DFS pricing is released, because everything thinks that they know more than what they truly know. As players are a year older, new coaching staffs, new rosters, etc all come into play now more than ever as the preseason has become even more irrelevant with fewer players playing.

The way to approach Week 1, is to find a game that people may not be thinking about and targeting that contest. We will talk about a few of the games throughout this article that you could target, but roster % is so critical in Week 1 as often it is based on very little other than preseason bias. So much changes compared to what the industry thinks they know compared to what happens. It’s not a guarantee, but pivoting against the crowd can pay off significantly in Week 1 more so than any other week.

Key Injuries for Week 1

There are not nearly as many injuries as typically occur in Week 1. Often times we are seeing players who can be 40%+ rostered simply because they are mispriced due to an injury after the pricing has already been released.

• Cincinnati’s wide receiver unit is a mess. Tee Higgins is doubtful, Ja’Marr Chase is questionable, but says he will be limited if he plays, which who knows what to believe there if he is posturing for an empty threat of trying to get a contract or truly will limit his snaps. Andre Iosivas will be the most popular play out of this mess, as he’s minimum priced, is a big body receiver that could replace Higgins’ role, and is $700 and $900 cheaper than Jermaine Burton and Trenton Irwin.
• Russell Wilson looks like he may miss this week, which if he does, Justin Fields will be very popular at $5,000. When Fields plays, we’ve seen the high-risk high-reward of starting the former Bears quarterback. Facing an Atlanta defense on the road, it ultimately should depend on his roster % as if he gets above 15%, he’s likely a fade given the amount of options in this week. The issue for Fields could be the amount of snaps he has taken this pre-season. With the limited amount of practice time, there could be some growing pains for the backup quarterback coming in with him being new to the backup role.

Stacks

Top Stack

Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Brian Thomas Jr.

Tua Tagovailoa is going under-the-radar as he’s only projected to be rostered by about 3% of rosters due to his high price point at $7k this week. However, last year we saw something similar where if you give Mike McDaniel time to scheme a game plan, he can be dangerous as Tua threw the ball for 466 yards in Week 1 last season. Tagovailoa threw for over 300 yards in 5 of his 10 first games before struggling down the stretch last season. With Tyreek Hill, there’s not much explanation needed, other than he’s coming off of a 1,799 yard season and is facing a defense that allowed 100-yard performances to six wide receivers last season.

For Brian Thomas, it’s all about upside. The rookie is as good of a deep receiver in this class. In college, Thomas had three touchdowns of 70 yards or more, and had a 30-yard catch in 8 games last season. With all of the focus on Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, and Gabe Davis, expect the Jaguars to take at least a couple deep shots to Thomas who ran a 4.33 40-yard dash at the combine.

Under the Radar Stacks

Deshaun Watson, CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper

Is there anyone who is more under-the-radar this week than Deshaun Watson? All the vibes have been negative in Cleveland with the team wanting him to play in the final preseason game, to him being ruled out the day of the game. Watson is not listed on the injury report, and the team restructured his contract just last week. While the Browns' defense is largely regarded as a very good one, this is a team that did struggle giving up points over the second half of the season as they allowed 28 points per game over their last 7 games of the season last year. With Watson, you get a guy who is likely going to have to use his feet this week given that the Browns will be without left tackle Jedrick Wills and could be without right tackle Jack Conklin.

For Lamb, he’s the ideal pivot away from Tyreek Hill. Lamb in the wide receiver section.

Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Terry McLaurin

It seems as if no one is targeting Mike Evans this week given the potential of the high-end receivers of CeeDee Lamb and Tyreek Hill. Evans however, is one of those players that has as much upside as any receiver on this slate. Evans had 140 yards or more and a touchdown in four games last season including the playoff game against Detroit. Washington’s secondary was the worst in the NFL last season, and they’ve lost their primary cornerback Kendall Fuller who left via free agency. The team is relying heavily on Benjamin St.-Juste, Emmanuel Forbes, and Mike Davis. Pass rush is also an issue with the Commanders losing Chase Young and Montez Sweat which could create problems.

For Terry McLaurin he’s coming off of his fourth 1,000 yard season, and now he’s partnering with possibly the most talented quarterback that he has played with in Jayden Daniels. McLaurin has caught passes from 11 different quarterbacks in his 5 year career, and now gets to build a relationship with Jayden Daniels. With the Buccaneers being one of the best run defenses in the NFL, expect the Commanders to throw the ball heavily with Daniels. McLaurin should be a primary read almost every play as the team still is trying to figure out who their number two receiver is with Olamide Zaccheus, Dyami Brown, and Noah Brown.

Position Breakdown

The purpose of this section is to discuss how opponents are going to approach their lineups as well as what are the top plays at each position. Note, a player that is not mentioned does not necessarily mean that he is a poor play. Often times, when players are roughly the same each week, it's difficult to mention them in every article. Also, players listed in the Stacks section, will not be listed twice down here, as we’ve already established the analysis on them.

QUARTERBACK

Value Play

Jayden Daniels- $5,700 8%

When it comes to expectations to immediately contribute in fantasy football, Jayden Daniels has some of the highest expectations to come in and have success. The Heisman winner last season ran for 1,134 yards while throwing for 3,812 yards and 40 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions. His legs are what have people intrigued, and with Anthony Richardson getting most of the hype and roster percentages, getting another running quarterback at half the roster percentage is intriguing this week. The matchup is a favorable one taking on Tampa Bay who allowed the 5^th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and bring back the same secondary with the exception of they traded away Carlton Davis this offseason.

Value Plays

Kyler Murray- $6,400 2%

This is a roster percentage that does not make a lot of sense. You’re getting a quarterback who is an underdog but is facing a defense that is completely rebuilding. They’ve lost three of their key veterans in safeties Jodan Poyer, Micah Hyde, and linebacker Matt Milano. This is a defense that relied heavily on these three players, and it may take time for them to come together as a unit. In his return back from his ACL injury, Murray played eight games last year, and wasn’t great, but we’ve seen that from other quarterbacks that come back mid-season. Having a full offseason, getting a new weapon in Marvin Harrison Jr. and Murray has always been a guy who has been dominant in the first half of the season when fully healthy. If he can return to peak Kyler Murray, in a game they may be trailing, he’s going to be asked to do just about everything for them this week.

Other Options:

Sam Darnold- $5,200 2%
Kirk Cousins- $6,100 1%

Running Back

High-End Play-

Aaron Jones- $6,500 11%

Aaron Jones is getting his first chance to be the featured back throughout his career. Coming from Green Bay where he had to deal with committees with both Jamaal Williams and A.J. Dillon, Jones now goes to Minnesota where he will get as much volume as he can handle as the Vikings only have him and Ty Chandler on the roster. For Jones, he’s getting the perfect matchup against the Giants who may have the worst defense heading into the year on paper. Bobby Okereke is a solid linebacker, but the team has big issues beyond Okereke as Micah McFadden led the NFL in missed tackles last season, while the team lost their star safety Xavier McKinney. If Sam Darnold struggles, the Vikings could lean heavily on Jones this week.

Travis Etienne- $7,200 6.7%

Travis Etienne is coming off of a career-best season as he ran for 1,008 yards but also added 58 receptions. It certainly feels that Etienne has been in the NFL longer than just the two years that he has been playing, but this is a running back who can build off of his two consecutive 1,400 total yards rushing and receiving. Facing a Miami defense that has some turnover in their defense as they lost Jerome Baker bringing in Jordyn Brooks from Seattle while also bringing in Jordan Poyer from Buffalo. This is a defense that could become very good, but it is certainly possible that it will take a week or two for them to come together.

Value Plays

Jerome Ford- $5,500 7%

It’s debatable just how good of a running back Jerome Ford is as some of his big games were propped up by explosive plays. With a GPP, however, the explosive play is exactly the type of play that you’re looking for. At $5,500, he provides a nice savings especially considering the Browns have issues at the tackle position on their offensive line. However, the Browns still have one of the best interior offensive lines led by Joel Bitonio that could be a way to try to mitigate Micah Parsons and the Cowboys pass rush.

Zack Moss- $5,800 2%

The reason that Moss is only at 3% in a game that the Bengals are heavy favorites is that there is speculation that Chase Brown could have a significant role in this rushing attack. Moss showed that he’s more than capable of handling a primary ball carrier workload as he averaged 4.3 yards-per-carry with 183 carries last season in Indianapolis. If Ja’Marr Chase doesn’t play, people are going to be looking at some wide receivers who have never proved anything in their careers. Meanwhile, Moss has shown he can be a contributing factor to the Bengals winning this week.

Fade

De'Von Achane- $6,800- 23%

This is crazy town with how popular De’Von Achane has gotten this week. Does anyone actually think that 7.8 yards-per-carry is repeatable? For reference, Barry Sanders’ career high was 6.1 yards per carry. So for Achane to have the same success as last year, if he even regresses to Barry Sanders’ career-high, he’s going to need 28% more touches than last year. To exceed last year’s production in which he averaged 18.5 points per game, he will need even more touches. Where are those touches going to come from? The team drafted Jaylen Wright as a complimentary back and he’s earned some touches, the Dolphins upgraded at tight end with Jonnu Smith, and Raheem Mostert is still with the team. The Jaguars were one of the best against running backs last season allowing just 77 yards rushing per game. This is as clear of a fade as you could possibly have this season. He will have big games, but at 23% it’s simply too high of a roster percentage.  

Wide Receiver

High-End Plays-

CeeDee Lamb- $8,900- 7%

This week is crazy. It doesn’t make a lot of sense that Tyreek Hill is projected to be 20-25% rostered while Lamb is going to be sub-10%. Lamb averaged 115 yards receiving per game from Week 6 onwards last season which would have had a 1,955-yard pace. The Dolphins have so many options this week, compared to the Cowboys who only have Lamb, Jake Ferguson, and maybe Brandin Cooks.

Ja'Marr Chase- $7,800- 7%

With no Tee Higgins, Ja’marr Chase on a normal week would be 20% rostered. However, people are worried about his status given his contract dispute and injury status. The reality is that there is a chance that the injury really is an issue and it’s entirely about the contract. If that’s the case and Chase is playing, he’s going to be in for the high-volume plays where he can make the biggest impact.

Davante Adams- $7,600- 5%

Davante Adams is another player who is largely forgotten about given such a high percentage of ownership is concentrated around Tyreek Hill and Andre Iosivas. To get Adams at 5%, when he’s coming off of his fourth consecutive 1,100 yard season makes him an intriguing play this week. We’ve seen Gardner Minshew lock onto receivers during his previous starts, and this could be a scenario where Minshew locks onto Adams early and often against a rebuilding secondary that is taking a big chance on Kristian Fulton as a starter alongside Asante Samuel Jr. Fulton struggled with Tennessee, and the Chargers signed him to a one-year $3 million deal, which should indicate how little the demand was for Fulton as a starter.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba- $4,900- 6%

2023 first-round pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba could be in line for a big role this season. We have to remember that he largely missed the entirety of his final year of college, so last year was a developmental year behind Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. The Seahawks made it a point to get him time with Geno Smith in the preseason, which could be an indication that they’re expecting a growth year for the second-year player. For a GPP, what we’re looking in Week 1, are the sleepers who can breakout and emerge as players who have exceeded their pre-season expectations.

Bottom of the Barrel-

You can take a chance on the following players if you need to save salary

Demario Douglas
Andre Iosivas
Rome Odunze
Alec Pierce
Quentin Johnston

Tight End

High-End Play-

Jake Ferguson- $5,200- 6%

Tight end is always a chase on which tight end will potentially break the slate by having multiple touchdowns or topping 100-yards. Jake Ferguson led all tight ends in red zone opportunities last season with 24. Ferguson only scored five touchdowns on those targets. That should normalize and potentially even grow in 2024, as the Cowboys running game is significantly worse than it was in 2023. For Cleveland, this is a group that’s weakest spot is their linebacker play which should open up opportunities for Ferguson with CeeDee Lamb getting increased focus from the safeties.

Kyle Pitts- $4,600- 12%

If we are targeting a breakout player, Pitts is a potential option to be a breakout option at the tight end position. Looking back to his 2021 season, which was the last time he had a competent quarterback in Matt Ryan, Pitts was able to amass over 1,000 yards as a rookie. This year, with Kirk Cousins as the starter, Pitts’ expectations should be much higher than the years of Desmond Ridder and Marcus Mariota.

Player Chart