Draft Plan: The 2024 Fantasy Football Draft List of Lists 1.0

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The 2024 Fantasy Football Draft List of Lists. What Is It?

I've done the legwork elsewhere. It's time for answers.

I wish I could inject all the context and knowledge of my football research into your veins. We're not there (yet), so let's hope the 2024 Fantasy List of Lists proves a worthwhile consolation for your fantasy football fix. 

As the title promises, this plan is a cohesive series of lists that will help you navigate your fantasy drafts. It's formatted in order of pre-draft planning to post-draft free agent considerations. 

If you want to see more detailed explanations about football, fantasy football, and scouting that are the foundation for this specific, I recommend my Footballguys rankings commentary, the RSP publication, and the RSP Dynasty Rankings and Projections service.

The 2024 Fantasy Football Draft List of Lists 1.0

This is List 1.0. I'll create version 2.0 around the third week of August. This is for 12-team PPR formats. I'm including considerations for 1-QB and Superflex lineups. 

The Draft Strategy I'm Favoring This Year

If there is a semblance of one I like, it's the idea of going old-school fantasy GM this year. 

The Early-RB Approach is appealing. In addition to Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Jonathan Taylor have the potential for excellent volume and scoring appeal despite three of them having runners at quarterback. 

There is enough value at RB and WR to land at least one potential top-10 RB early and still acquire starters and depth at both positions. You'll see in the lists where I've opened with two backs early. 

Thoughts About Draft Strategies in General

Strategies are useful regardless of experience and expertise. For the less experienced, it may be best to stick close to the strategy. For the more experienced, strategies work best as guidelines that afford you flexibility.  

Strategies focused on when to take a position have value if you're drafting against people following a predictable pattern when selecting specific positions. There can be value to zigging where your league is zagging.

A strategy doesn't have to be about when to take specific positions. Adam Harstad and Bob Harris follow a draft principle predicated on value: They lean into players who fall below their Average Draft Position (ADP). 

Do I Have A "Do Not Draft List?"

Yes and No. Yes, there are players I won't draft within 1-2 rounds of their Average Draft Position (ADP). No, I don't take these players completely off the list. If they fall at least two rounds below their ADP, I will consider them worthwhile values. 

Keep this in mind when you get to the lists of players I'm avoiding in specific rounds.

Strategy and Player Targets for Rounds 1-4

Favorite Opening Combinations of Players in Rounds 1-4

1-QB League Formats

• Early Turn: Tyreek Hill, Derrick Henry, Mike Evans, and Mark Andrews.
• Middle: Bijan Robinson, Derrick Henry, DJ Moore, and Malik Nabers.
• Late Turn: Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, Cooper Kupp, and DK Metcalf. 

Superflex Formats

• Early Turn Superflex): Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, and De'Von Achane.
• Middle (Superflex): Tyreek Hill, A.J. Brown, Derrick Henry, and Mike Evans.
• Late Turn (Superflex):  Bijan Robinson, Anthony Richardson, Derrick Henry, and Mike Evans.

The Themes for Fave 1-4 Combinations

1-QB League Formats

• Old-school, early-round RB in the house. 
• Derrick Henry has an offensive line! 
• Value at WR in Rounds 3 and 4. 

Superflex Formats

• Get a rushing threat at QB early.
• Derrick Henry has an offensive line!
• Mike Evans is a value. 

The Options I'm Most Excited About in Rounds 1-4

All League Formats

• Value Alert: The only thing wrong with Derrick Henry last year was his surrounding talent. 
• Will Saquon Barkley lose TDs to the Tush Push? Yes, but he's going to be a volume monster.
• Bijan Robinson might be the safest early-round RB due to age, volume, ability, and offensive line.
• If having Tyreek Hill on your team doesn't get you excited, check your pulse.

The Rookie I Want This Early

• If going RB-heavy early, Malik Nabers is versatile, refined, and acrobatic. Yes, even with Daniel Jones. 

The Players in Rounds 1-4 I'm Avoiding*

*I'm avoiding them unless they drop at least two rounds below their Average Draft Position (ADP). Apply this to every heading as the qualification for avoiding a player. 

All Drafts

• Marvin Harrison Jr.
• Chris Olave
• Kyren Williams
• Stefon Diggs

Avoiding No Matter What: Rounds 1-4

No one.

Alternates: Rounds 1-4

These alternative selections are for each pick if the specific player is gone. You could probably build a team with these alternate picks, but that is not the intent. It's about picking the best players. 

If you decide to build with the alternate list, be mindful of position needs and where the projected scarcity of value begins for each. 

When you see *ADP 1-12 as the alternative
Based on your draft position at the end of the turn, if my initial choices are taken before you're up, you'll have your choice of any player with a top-12 Average Draft Position (ADP). As always, give strong consideration to any players who dropped below their ADP.   

Early Turn Pick in 1-QB Leagues

Middle Pick in 1-QB Leagues

Late Turn Pick in 1-QB Leagues

*ADP 1-2: Based on your draft position at the end of the turn, you'll have your choice of any player with a top-12 ADP if Taylor and/or Barkley are taken before you're up. 

Early Turn Pick in Superflex Leagues

Middle Pick in Superflex Leagues

Late Turn Pick in Superflex Leagues

Strategy and Player Targets for Rounds 5-8

My Favorite Player Combinations in Rounds 5-8

1-QB Leagues

• Early Turn: Anthony Richardson, Chris Godwin, Najee Harris, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
• Middle: Anthony Richardson, Chris Godwin, Diontae Johnson, and Ladd McConkey.
• Late Turn: Keenan Allen, George Kittle, Ladd McConkey, and Jaylen Warren.

Superflex Leagues

• Early Turn Superflex): Nico Collins, Evan Engram, Keenan Allen, and Najee Harris.
• Middle (Superflex): DK Metcalf, Matthew Stafford, David Montgomery, and Najee Harris.
• Late Turn (Superflex):  DK Metcalf, Kyle Pitts, Marquise Brown, and Najee Harris.

The Themes for Fave Round 5-8 Combinations

• Let folks overanalyze Anthony Richardson's passing. He has a realistic top-3 ceiling this year. 
• There's value to mine at this range for WR. 
• Chris Godwin excels in the slot, and we'll see more of that this year. 
• Keenan Allen will be Caleb Williams' security blanket and still has a legitimate top-15 ceiling. 
• Arthur Smith loves big backs. Najee Harris is undervalued, and there will be enough for Jaylen Warren, too.
• Harris and David Montgomery should deliver touchdowns. 
• If you haven't read my thoughts on Ladd McConkey, save this for later. 

The Options I'm Most Excited About in Rounds 5-8

• Anthony Richardson: See my scouting report.
• DK Metcalf: They're moving him around this year to maximize his volume. 
• Najee Harris: An Arthur Smith points dispenser. 

The Players in Rounds 5-8 I'm Avoiding*

*I'm avoiding them unless they drop at least two rounds below their Average Draft Position (ADP). Apply this to every heading as the qualification for avoiding a player. 

• Rhamondre Stevenson: Love his game but worried about his team. 
• Calvin Ridley: Will Levis is a big decline even from a struggling Trevor Lawrence.
• Zack Moss: Unless Chase Brown gets hurt this month, no thanks. 

Avoiding No Matter What: Rounds 5-8

No one. 

Alternatives: Rounds 5-8

Most of my alternatives are veterans with proven production. The running backs will likely have red-zone duties. The receivers should earn starter-caliber volume. There are a few high-ceiling rookies sprinkled into the mix. 

Early Turn Pick in 1-QB Leagues

Middle Pick in 1-QB Leagues

Late Turn Pick in 1-QB Leagues

Early Turn Pick in Superflex Leagues

Middle Pick in Superflex Leagues

Late Turn Pick in Superflex Leagues

The Riskiest Players in Rounds 5-8 That Draw Me Like A Moth to a Flame

All Formats (And one compelling argument for each)

• Malik Nabers: Top route runners often mitigate bad QB play and Nabers already is one.  
• Ladd McConkey: Greg Roman uses lead slot WRs and never had a QB like Justin Herbert. 
• De'Von Achane: Volume doesn't matter with certain archetypes and systems.
• Xavier Worthy: Infrequent pick, but he has enough DeSean Jackson in him to deliver early.

The Boring Players in Rounds 5-8 That You Should Seriously Consider

All Formats (And one compelling argument for each)

• Chris Godwin: WR30 with only 2 TDs in 2023, but thrives in the slot and will be there a lot more. 
• Evan Engram: TE2 last year, but TE in ADP because the public thinks it was a fluke. It was preparation.
• David Montgomery: Detroit's offensive line is excellent and that means red-zone and close-out points. 
• Najee Harris: The shine has come off public perception, but the talent is still there and in a better offense. 
• James Conner: Coaches want proven options in the red zone. That's Conner, not Trey Benson.  

Players in Rounds 5-8 Suited Well for Best Ball

All Formats (And one compelling argument for each)

• Xavier Worthy: Think DeSean Jackson--top WR by 10-15 points one week and little else for 2-3 weeks. 
• De'Von Achane: Miami will be a committee backfield, which could lead to highs and lows with volume.
• Marquise Brown: May not be as volatile as Worthy this year, but the offense may remain Kelce-centric.

When I'm Considering QBs in 1-QB Leagues

Earliest: Anthony Richardson in the fifth round due to the high floor with his legs and higher ceiling that non-QB analysts realize with his arm.

Consistently: Rounds 11-14 with Geno Smith as my 14th-round guard rail.

Latest: Not listed here, but a Russell Wilson-Bryce Young tandem if I'm going high-risk at the position.

When I'm Considering QBs in Superflex Leagues

Earliest: The first round when Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, and Anthony Richardson are within range. 

Consistently: One QB from the trio above during the opening two rounds and one from rounds 6-9 among Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, and Geno Smith. 

Latest: Russell Wilson in the 10th round. I'd consider Bryce Young if open to a high-risk build. 

If You Missed on RBs or WRs Early and You're Position-Poor

Stockpile where you're rich and hopefully build a surplus during the draft. Use the waiver wire as an additional resource to create that surplus. If you succeed, there will be a demand for the position where you're rich, and you'll have trade bait.

Strategy and Player Targets for Rounds 9-12

Favorite Player Combinations for Rounds 9-12

1-QB Leagues

• Early Turn: Marquise Brown, Chase Brown, Justin Herbert, and J.K. Dobbins.
• Middle: Tyjae Spears, Chase Brown, Pat Freiermuth, and Aaron Rodgers.
• Late Turn: Tyler Lockett, Ezekiel Elliott, Matthew Stafford, and J.K. Dobbins. 

Superflex Leagues

• Early Turn Superflex): Geno Smith, Christian Watson, Gus Edwards, and Khalil Shakir.
• Middle (Superflex): Geno Smith, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Pat Freiermuth, and Chase Brown.
• Late Turn (Superflex):  Diontae Johnson, Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, and Blake Corum.

The Themes for Fave Round 9-12 Combinations

1-QB Formats

• Baked into Chase Brown's ceiling is the coach who helped Brandon Aiyuk, Evan Engram, and Dontayvion Wicks.
• JK Dobbins has elite talent. If finally healthy, the setting offers volume potential and a supportive coach.
• Quarterbacks who can throw well when they need to, and the need will be there. 
• Capable WRs with route skills inside and vertical prowess outside. 

Superflex 

• QBs that have new schemes, a promising cast, and high ceilings. 
• RBs that have high ceilings in good offenses as the lead and flex value at their floor. 
• Capable WRs with route skills and yards after the catch inside and vertical prowess outside.

Players in Rounds 9-12 Who Have No Business Going This Late

• Tyler Lockett was WR34 at age 31, and the industry is fading by the data. But WR51??? Unlikely.
• Marquise Brown has been no worse than a fantasy team's WR3 when he has played at least 16 games. 
• J.K. Dobbins if he is over the injuries. 

The Players in Rounds 9-12 I'm Avoiding*

*I'm avoiding them unless they drop at least two rounds below their Average Draft Position (ADP). Apply this to every heading as the qualification for avoiding a player. 

• Brian Thomas Jr. is a talent, but there are more proven and compelling WRs and RBs at his current range.
• T.J. Hockenson may be "Tony Pollard healthy" by October but may not be right until 2025.   
• Jakobi Meyers has an unsettled QB room, and Brock Bowers could leapfrog him in the pecking order.
• Kirk Cousins won't show us if he can drive the ball off his rehabbed Achilles at 36 until September.

Avoiding No Matter What: Rounds 9-12

• Dennis Allen went public against Kendre Miller for his reliability. Even if that's a leadership flaw on Allen, it's not a good sign for Miller.
• Gabe Davis could do well, but receivers who need a lot of scheming and drop the ball aren't my jam. 
• Jerry Jeudy hasn't performed to expectations and I'm skeptical Cleveland's setting is a legit improvement.
• Dallas Goedert is a good player, but I'm not going any lower than Evan Engram. 

Alternatives: Rounds 9-12

At this point of the draft, the alternatives are a mix of high-ceiling talents, proven producers, and promising rookie running backs with a shot at significant playing time.

Early Turn Pick in 1-QB Leagues

Middle Pick in 1-QB Leagues

Late Turn Pick in 1-QB Leagues

Early Turn Pick in Superflex Leagues

Middle Pick in Superflex Leagues

Late Turn Pick in Superflex Leagues

When I'm Considering a Team Defense

Not Yet!

When I'm Considering a Kicker

Not Yet!

Strategy and Player Targets for Rounds 13-16**

Favorite Player Combinations for Rounds 13-16

1-QB

• Early Turn: Chuba Hubbard, Michael Wilson, Isaiah Likely, and Demarcus Robinson.
• Middle: Dontayvion Wicks, Ray Davis, Isaiah Likely, and Demarcus Robinson.
• Late Turn: Ray Davis, Geno Smith, Tyler Conklin, and Jermaine Burton. 

Super Flex

• Early Turn Superflex): Taysom Hill, Dontayvion Wicks, MarShawn Lloyd, and Marvin Mims Jr.
• Middle (Superflex): Taysom Hill, Brandin Cooks, MarShawn Lloyd, and Jermaine Burton.
• Late Turn (Superflex):  JK Dobbins, Brandin Cooks, Tyler Allgeier, and Isaiah Likely.

**Should I take a third and/or fourth QB in SuperFlex? Yes! Consider the late options in my combinations--Baker Mayfield, Geno Smith, and Russell Wilson.

My Basic Theme for Round 13-16 Combinations

All Formats

• Proven RB talents with starter ceilings.
• Rookie RB talents who could inherit volume in good offenses if injuries strike.
• WRs (and TE Likely) who will contribute in a rotation but have weekly starter ceilings.

Players in Rounds 13-16 Who Have No Business Going This Late

• Baker Mayfield was QB11 last year, but his average draft position is QB22 with all of his weapons back.
• Darnell Mooney is Atlanta's WR2 and no worse than the offense's third option. WR65 via ADP is low.
• Adam Thielen is 33, but does that make him WR65 after a top-20 fantasy season? Worth finding out.
• Tyler Conklin is a good one-on-one ball-winner paired with Aaron Rodgers. 

The Players in Rounds 13-16 I'm Avoiding 

• Wan'Dale Robinson: Don't expect strong volume or big plays. 
• Derek Carr: The offensive line must improve dramatically. 
• Elijah Mitchell: Isaac Guerendo is more appealing as a free agent. 

Avoiding No Matter What: Rounds 13-16

• All tight ends in this range or later not named Isaiah Likely or Tyler Conklin.
• Quentin Johnston: Receivers with tracking and attack issues seldom make dramatic improvements.  
• Roman Wilson: Even before the ankle injury in camp, he has a lot of work to do against man-to-man.

The Riskiest Players in Rounds 9-16 That Draw Me Like a Moth to a Flame

• Keon Coleman: It's not his camp buzz, but what I saw on film. His WR room is too crowded, though. 
• Brock Bowers: If he were a Detroit Lion last year, he would have shattered Mike Ditka's rookie record, but he's a Raider without a proven QB. 
• Nick Chubb: I want to, but I can't (but I really want to...). 
• Ezekiel Elliott: He looked good on a bad team last year. He could be in a three-headed committee and/or have double-digit TDs. 
• J.K. Dobbins: I want to believe he's truly over the injuries and back to his collegiate self. 

The Boring Players in Rounds 9-16 You Should Seriously Consider

• Gus Edwards: Red-zone duty on a team that wants to pound the ball. 
• Jerome Ford: Nick Chubb won't be ready (but I really want to believe he will), and Ford has a good line. 
• Brandin Cooks: He's still the second-best receiver in Dallas.
• Tyler Allgeier: If Bijan Robinson gets hurt, Allgeier won't dazzle on tape, but he will in the box score.

Players in Rounds 9-16 Suited Well for Best Ball 

All of these options are big-play artists

• Marquise Brown
• Jameson Williams
• Trey Benson
• Chase Brown
• Rashid Shaheed
• Gabe Davis
• Adonai Mitchell
• Jaleel McLaughlin
• Rashod Bateman

When I'm Considering a Team Defense

Now! See below.

When I'm Considering a Kicker

Now! See below.

Strategy and Player Targets for Rounds 17-20

Favorite Player Combinations for Rounds 17-20

1-QB

• Early Turn: Cowboys Defense, Tank Bigsby, Brandon Aubrey, and Dylan Laube.
• Middle: Cowboys Defense, Tank Bigsby, Brandon Aubrey, and Andrei Iosivas.
• Late Turn: Browns Defense, Tank Bigsby, Justin Tucker, and Javon Baker. 

Super Flex

• Early Turn Superflex): Cowboys Defense, Tank Bigsby, Brandon Aubrey, and Andrei Iosivas.
• Middle (Superflex): Cowboys Defense, Tank Bigsby, Brandon Aubrey, and Andrei Iosivas.
• Late Turn (Superflex):  Cowboys Defense, Tank Bigsby, Brandon Aubrey, and Andrei Iosivas.

Players Who Should Be on Your Waiver-Wire List

You should have a waiver-wire list for any free-agent runs before the season if your league schedules it. You should also have a list for early in the season so you don't get too caught up in the fervor over one player who amounts to little else for the rest of the year. 

Potential Early Additions Due to Injuries and/or Surprise Developments Favoring Them

• RB Dylan Laube*
• WR Andrei Iosivas
• WR Javon Baker
• TE Dawson Knox
• WR Malik Washington*
• WR Allen Lazard
• WR Josh Reynolds
• WR Noah Brown*
• WR Calvin Austin III*
• WR Michael Thomas*
• WR Parker Washington*
• WR Tre Tucker*

*Faves based on talent, skills, and fit. All are worthwhile picks in Round 20 if the news substantiates it. If no news, place them atop the Monitor List below. 

Monitor for Potential Opportunities

Potential opportunities include snap increases, success with limited playing time, joining a team, injuries, and suspensions.

• RB Kareem Hunt
• RB Dalvin Cook
• RB Cordarrelle Patterson
• RB Dillon Johnson
• RB Chris Brooks
• RB Deneric Prince
• RB Keaontay Ingram
• RB Trey Sermon
• RB Samaje Perine
• RB Royce Freeman
• RB Tyler Goodson
• RB Michael Carter
• RB Boston Scott
• QB Joe Flacco
• QB Michael Penix Jr.
• QB Carson Wentz
• QB Tyson Bagent
• QB Drew Lock
• WR JuJu Smith-Schuster
• WR Kadarius Toney
• WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling
• WR K.J. Osborn
• WR Nelson Agholor
• WR Ainias Smith
• TE Gerald Everett
• TE Jelani Woods
• TE Tyler Higbee
• TE Irv Smith

Final Thought

Good luck.

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