DFS First Look: Week 18

Whether you're a veteran or a newcomer, the mission is to find the best value plays, identify favorable matchups, and build a winning lineup. In this early-week breakdown, we'll kickstart your DFS prep with a high-level overview of the Week 18 Main Slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.

We'll analyze the opening lines and team totals to pinpoint teams in the best spots for an offensive explosion. This helps us focus on players who could provide the best return on investment. We will also highlight the players standing out in our early-week projections as the best values. Late in the week, much of your research should be dedicated to determining which of the best points per dollar (PPD) plays you trust more than the others. Our goal is to arm you with sharp insights and data-driven visualizations so you can start honing in on the best plays before the week unfolds. 

Matchup Overview

I like starting my week with this simple visualization, which shows how much each team is favored on the X-axis and the implied team total on the Y-axis. Let's go clockwise, starting in the upper-left quadrant, and highlight teams with interesting angles in Week 18.

Note: The Vikings-Lions game is included on the FanDuel main slate but is not on the DraftKings main slate.

Upper Left: High-Scoring Underdogs
Teams in this quadrant are underdogs but projected to score above the slate's average, making them prime targets for potential shootouts. The standout here is the Vikings. It's rare to see an underdog with an implied team total north of 27 points, but that's exactly the situation for Minnesota this week. Everything about their matchup against the Lions points to a shootout.

The Lions defense is reeling from injuries, allowing an average of 32.5 PPG over their last four games (37.7 PPG if you exclude a matchup against the struggling Bears). On the other side, Detroit's offense has been unstoppable, averaging 37.5 PPG in the same span. This game will not only decide the NFC's top seed and first-round bye but also boasts the highest projected score on the FanDuel main slate. We may never have a week in which the FanDuel and DraftKings lineups look more different because the FanDuel lineups are likely to feature a massive dose of players in this game.

Upper Right: High-Scoring Favorites
These teams are favorites with above-average implied totals, making them cornerstone options for both cash games and GPPs. Two NFC South contenders stand out in this quadrant:

• Tampa Bay: A win secures the NFC South and the final playoff spot in the conference. Facing a poor Saints defense that just allowed Ameer Abdullah to rack up 147 total yards, Bucky Irving is poised to dominate in this must-win game.

• Atlanta: The Falcons must beat the Panthers and hope for a Saints upset to have a chance. Their talented young offense, led by Michael Penix Jr., Bijan Robinson, and Drake London, takes on a hapless Panthers defense that gave up 48 points last week. Even if Tampa Bay clinches the division, a strong showing from Atlanta's offensive core could provide momentum heading into 2025.

Bottom Right: Low-Scoring Favorites
Favorites in this quadrant have below-average implied totals, making them less appealing overall. However, running backs in positive game scripts remain viable, while passing options carry increased risk. This quadrant is unusually crowded in Week 18, and getting these teams right will be critical for DFS success.

• Dolphins: For this game to matter, Miami needs the Chiefs (likely playing backups) to upset Denver. Regardless, De'Von Achane remains a strong play, as it's unclear if the Jets will even show up.

• Backup Running Backs: Week 18 tournaments could hinge on identifying the right backup running backs.

  • Buffalo is favored despite resting starters, making Ray Davis a potential bellcow with 20+ touches.
  • Similarly, Philadelphia and Houston are incentivized to rest their starters, giving Kenneth Gainwell and Dameon Pierce heavy workloads in favorable game scripts.

Bottom Left: Low-Scoring Underdogs
Teams in this quadrant are underdogs with below-average implied team totals, making them the least appealing options. Players from these teams should only be considered if you have high confidence in their production, as the overall game environment offers little fantasy upside.

Week 18 Best Matchups

Season-to-date averages are valuable data points. In this section, we'll highlight teams expected to score more points than their current season average. This is a simple yet effective way to identify teams and players projected to perform better than in previous weeks.

In the table below, we compare each team's implied total points ("Total") to their season-to-date average points per game ("PPG") and calculate the expected scoring boost for the current week ("Week 18 Boost"). Here are the top matchups:

• The Falcons offense has been electric with Michael Penix Jr. under center, and they now face a dream matchup against a woeful Panthers defense. Last week, Carolina was gashed on the ground by Bucky Irving and also allowed Baker Mayfield to carve them up through the air, completing 27 of 32 attempts for 359 yards and five touchdowns. In total, the Panthers surrendered over 500 yards to the Buccaneers in Week 17. Wheels up for the Atlanta stars in Week 18.
• The Mac Jones-led Jaguars offense might be easy to overlook, but they are in a strong spot this week. The Colts just allowed Drew Lock to throw for 319 yards and score five total touchdowns in a meaningful game. Now, with Indianapolis eliminated from playoff contention, they may struggle to compete. Brian Thomas Jr. has an excellent opportunity to close out his rookie season with a big performance.

Week 18 Worst Matchups

In the table below, we compare each team's implied total points ("Total") to their season-to-date average points per game ("PPG") and calculate the expected scoring boost for the current week ("Week 18 Boost"). For the teams below, that scoring boost will be negative. Here are the teams projected to score worse than their season averages:

• The Chiefs, Bills, and Eagles headline the list of teams expected to rest their offensive stars in Week 18. Backup running backs are potentially in play here for tournaments.