DFS First Look: Week 16

Whether you're a veteran or a newcomer, the mission is to find the best value plays, identify favorable matchups, and build a winning lineup. In this early-week breakdown, we'll kickstart your DFS prep with a high-level overview of the Week 16 Main Slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.

We'll analyze the opening lines and team totals to pinpoint teams in the best spots for an offensive explosion. This helps us focus on players who could provide the best return on investment. We will also highlight the players standing out in our early-week projections as the best values. Late in the week, much of your research should be dedicated to determining which of the best points per dollar (PPD) plays you trust more than the others. Our goal is to arm you with sharp insights and data-driven visualizations so you can start honing in on the best plays before the week unfolds. 

Matchup Overview

I like starting my week with this simple visualization, which shows how much each team is favored on the X-axis and the implied team total on the Y-axis. Let's go clockwise, starting in the upper-left quadrant, and highlight teams with interesting angles in Week 16.

Upper Left: High-Scoring Underdogs
Teams in this quadrant are underdogs but still projected to score above the slate's average, making them intriguing targets for potential shootouts. There is no team on the Week 16 main slate in this category. Not a single underdog is implied to score more than 22.0 points (the Cowboys). This rare occurrence will make tournament roster building more challenging. Unlike prior slates with matchups like Bills-Lions, where fireworks seemed inevitable, this week lacks such clear shootout opportunities.

Upper Right: High-Scoring Favorites
These teams are favorites with above-average implied team totals, making them priority targets for both cash games and GPPs:

• The Bills offense has been on fire and boasts the highest implied total on the slate (30.0), despite frigid conditions forecasted with temperatures in the low teens and snow. This could be a spot where James Cook and the running game take on an even larger role, especially if the Patriots offense fails to push Buffalo into an aggressive game plan.
• The Lions and Bengals, both decimated by defensive injuries, also stand out. The injuries should allow their opponents to score points, forcing these elite offenses to remain aggressive for all 60 minutes. Jahmyr Gibbs is expected to dominate the Lions backfield and will likely be one of the chalkiest plays of the slate.
• Joe Burrow and the Bengals passing offense draw a Top 5 matchup against the Browns, making them an excellent tournament option.

Bottom Right: Low-Scoring Favorites
Favorites in this quadrant have below-average implied totals, which makes them less appealing overall. However, running backs remain viable due to likely positive game scripts, while passing game options carry increased risk:

• With Aidan O’Connell returning from injury, this could be a spot where Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers get back on track.
• The Jaguars pass defense was torched by the Jets last week, which adds some intrigue to Meyers in particular as a mid-range play.

Bottom Left: Low-Scoring Underdogs
Teams in this quadrant are underdogs with below-average implied team totals, offering the least appeal across the slate. Players from these teams should only be rostered if you have strong confidence in their production, as the game environment is unlikely to support consistent fantasy success:

• Titans skill position players are on my radar with Mason Rudolph set to start at quarterback. While Rudolph is not a star, he is a legitimate upgrade over Will Levis, providing a slight boost to this offense's outlook.

Week 16 Best Matchups

Season-to-date averages as valuable data points. In this section, we'll highlight teams expected to score more points than their current season average. This is a simple yet effective way to identify teams and players projected to perform better than in previous weeks.

In the table below, we compare each team's implied total points ("Total") to their season-to-date average points per game ("PPG") and calculate the expected scoring boost for the current week ("Week 16 Boost"). Here are the top matchups:

• The Cardinals leap off the page with the highest scoring projection on the slate for a team receiving a significant Week 16 boost. Most of the attention will understandably go to James Conner, who is coming off a monster Week 15 performance. The Panthers defense allows yardage in chunks to opposing running backs, making this a great spot for Conner. However, massive fantasy games against Carolina have been surprisingly rare in the back half of the season. Since Week 7, the Panthers have allowed an average of just 0.5 touchdowns per game to opposing running back groups. In the past two weeks, Saquon Barkley (124 rushing yards) and Rico Dowdle (149 rushing yards) racked up plenty of yardage but failed to score touchdowns or record a single reception.
• The Falcons receive an 18% scoring boost this week. Whether this is due to the favorable matchup against the Giants or heightened expectations for the passing game with rookie Michael Penix Jr. now under center is up for debate. Regardless, this is a prime spot for Penix to make his NFL debut, facing a defense that surrendered five touchdowns to Lamar Jackson last week.
• The Jaguars remain a Top 5 matchup for opposing wide receivers and tight ends, making Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers strong options to capitalize on Jacksonville's Week 16 scoring boost of 16%.

Week 16 Worst Matchups

In the table below, we compare each team's implied total points ("Total") to their season-to-date average points per game ("PPG") and calculate the expected scoring boost for the current week ("Week 16 Boost"). For the teams below, that scoring boost will be negative. Here are the teams projected to score worse than their season averages:

• The Bears defense started the year strong but has regressed during their extended losing streak. On paper, this looks like a favorable matchup for the Lions, but keep in mind that this will be just their second game of the season played outdoors. With temperatures forecasted to be in the 20s, ceiling performances from Detroit's passing offense may be unlikely.

• The weather could also play a significant role in Seattle. While the Seahawks-Vikings matchup has shootout potential on paper, the low implied team totals reflect concerns over heavy rain in the forecast, which could negatively impact the passing offenses on both sides.