DFS First Look: Week 15

Whether you're a veteran or a newcomer, the mission is to find the best value plays, identify favorable matchups, and build a winning lineup. In this early-week breakdown, we'll kickstart your DFS prep with a high-level overview of the Week 15 Main Slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.

We'll analyze the opening lines and team totals to pinpoint teams in the best spots for an offensive explosion. This helps us focus on players who could provide the best return on investment. We will also highlight the players standing out in our early-week projections as the best values. Late in the week, much of your research should be dedicated to determining which of the best points per dollar (PPD) plays you trust more than the others. Our goal is to arm you with sharp insights and data-driven visualizations so you can start honing in on the best plays before the week unfolds. 

Matchup Overview

I like starting my week with this simple visualization, which shows how much each team is favored on the X-axis and the implied team total on the Y-axis. Let's go clockwise, starting in the upper-left quadrant, and highlight teams with interesting angles in Week 15.

The spread is so big in the Ravens game that it makes the visualization harder to see, so let's drop it and look at just the remaining games:

Note: The FanDuel Main Slate includes the Sunday Night Football matchup between the Packers and Seahawks. The DraftKings Main Slate does not.

Upper Left: High-Scoring Underdogs
Teams in this quadrant are underdogs but still projected to score above the slate's average, making them intriguing targets for potential shootouts. In Week 14, only the Rams (playing the Bills) were in this quadrant. The Rams-Bills game delivered on its shootout potential in a big way. In Week 15, the Bills are now in the role of underdog but are once again involved in the only game on the slate with obvious shootout potential. In fact, this game is unique in that this is one of the first times all season an underdog (Buffalo) has one of the highest implied team totals on the slate. After notching six touchdowns last week, Josh Allen will be a popular tournament option.

Upper Right: High-Scoring Favorites
These teams are favorites with above-average implied team totals, making them priority targets for both cash games and GPPs. Positive game scripts in this quadrant enhance the appeal of running backs. As noted above, the Ravens are such huge favorites they skewed the whole visualization. If this game goes according to script, it is a chance for Derrick Henry to get back on track. He has not scored more than 17.0 DraftKings points since all the way back in Week 9. Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and the Bengals red-hot passing offense are also healthy favorites with a solid team total at Tennessee. This could be a week in which paying up for a top wide receiver like Chase is much more popular than normal.

Bottom Right: Low-Scoring Favorites
Favorites in this quadrant have below-average implied totals, which makes them less appealing overall. Running backs, however, remain viable due to likely positive game scripts, while passing game options carry increased risk. The Jets are the only team favored with a team total below 22 points.  If Breece Hall misses another week, there is a case to be made for Braelon Allen or Isaiah Davis. Davis played 53% of the snaps last week and earned 16 opportunities with 10 carries and 6 targets.

Bottom Left: Low-Scoring Underdogs
Teams in this quadrant are underdogs with below-average implied team totals, offering the least appeal across the slate. Roster players from these teams only if you have high confidence in their production, as the overall game environment is unlikely to support consistent fantasy success.

Week 15 Best Matchups

Season-to-date averages as valuable data points. In this section, we'll highlight teams expected to score more points than their current season average. This is a simple yet effective way to identify teams and players projected to perform better than in previous weeks.

In the table below, we compare each team's implied total points ("Total") to their season-to-date average points per game ("PPG") and calculate the expected scoring boost for the current week ("Week 15 Boost"). Here are the top matchups:

• The Panthers offense has come alive in recent weeks. While the team has lost three straight, they were in position to upset three strong opponents (Eagles, Buccaneers, and Chiefs) during this stretch. Bryce Young has averaged 251 passing yards per game over this span. Carolina is projected for a 27% scoring boost compared to their season average.
• The Bengals defense has been a disaster this season. Will Levis, Tony Pollard, and Calvin Ridley have underperformed lately, but it's hard not to get excited about any heavily used skill position player facing Cincinnati. The Titans are projected for a 20% scoring boost over their season average.
• This is a prime "get-right" spot for the Cardinals, and their matchup against the Patriots offers sneaky shootout potential. Kyler Murray and Trey McBride project very well for Arizona, which is expected to see a 17% Week 15 scoring boost. On the other side, Drake Maye has been impressive, and the Patriots are projected for an 18% Week 15 boost.

Week 15 Worst Matchups

In the table below, we compare each team's implied total points ("Total") to their season-to-date average points per game ("PPG") and calculate the expected scoring boost for the current week ("Week 15 Boost"). For the teams below, that scoring boost will be negative. Here are the teams projected to score worse than their season averages:

• The Steelers passing offense will likely be without top weapon George Pickens as they face an incredibly difficult matchup against an elite Eagles defense. Philadelphia did allow some production to Chuba Hubbard last week, however, which keeps Najee Harris in play as a tournament consideration.
• The Bills-Lions matchup features a high game total, but the implied team totals for both teams are below their season averages. This suggests the top weapons on both sides are likely priced appropriately. While there is upside if this game turns into a shootout like the Bills-Rams game earlier this season, it's not a slam-dunk spot to target. Buffalo and Detroit carry negative Week 15 boosts of 15% and 11%, respectively.
• While Alvin Kamara remains a strong point-per-dollar option, there's reason to be cautious about his Week 15 outlook. With Derek Carr out, the Saints are projected for a negative 20% weekly boost. Additionally, Kendre Miller returned last week, played 26% of the snaps, and looked deserving of an expanded role moving forward.