DFS First Look: Week 14

Whether you're a veteran or a newcomer, the mission is to find the best value plays, identify favorable matchups, and build a winning lineup. In this early-week breakdown, we'll kickstart your DFS prep with a high-level overview of the Week 14 Main Slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.

We'll analyze the opening lines and team totals to pinpoint teams in the best spots for an offensive explosion. This helps us focus on players who could provide the best return on investment. We will also highlight the players standing out in our early-week projections as the best values. Late in the week, much of your research should be dedicated to determining which of the best points per dollar (PPD) plays you trust more than the others. Our goal is to arm you with sharp insights and data-driven visualizations so you can start honing in on the best plays before the week unfolds. 

Matchup Overview

I like starting my week with this simple visualization, which shows how much each team is favored on the X-axis and the implied team total on the Y-axis. Let's go clockwise, starting in the upper-left quadrant, and highlight teams with interesting angles in Week 14.

Note: The FanDuel Main Slate includes the Sunday Night Football matchup between the Chargers and Chiefs. The DraftKings Main Slate does not.

Upper Left: High-Scoring Underdogs
Teams in this quadrant are underdogs but still projected to score above the slate's average, making them intriguing targets for potential shootouts. Among this week’s underdogs, the Rams stand out with a solid implied team total. Opening as 3.5-point home underdogs against Buffalo, the line has since shifted to 5.0 points, driven by an increase in Buffalo's implied total and a rise in the game total to 49.5. The Bills’ defense has allowed 5.2 fantasy PPG above average to opposing running backs (PPR scoring)—the second-most in the NFL—creating a strong opportunity for Kyren Williams to thrive.

Upper Right: High-Scoring Favorites
These teams are favorites with above-average implied team totals, making them priority targets for both cash games and GPPs. Positive game scripts in this quadrant enhance the appeal of running backs. The Eagles, as 12-point home favorites against the Panthers, have an ideal setup for Saquon Barkley, given Carolina’s status as the league’s most generous matchup for opposing running backs. Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh are also significant home favorites this week, with Bucky Irving and Najee Harris emerging as popular tournament options after strong Week 13 performances.

Bottom Right: Low-Scoring Favorites
Favorites in this quadrant have below-average implied totals, which makes them less appealing overall. Running backs, however, remain viable due to likely positive game scripts, while passing game options carry increased risk. Tennessee is the only Week 14 favorite in this category. Tony Pollard, who saw 29 opportunities in Week 12 but struggled last week in a poor game script, could benefit from a more favorable scenario this week, making him a consideration.

Bottom Left: Low-Scoring Underdogs
Teams in this quadrant are underdogs with below-average implied team totals, offering the least appeal across the slate. Roster players from these teams only if you have high confidence in their production, as the overall game environment is unlikely to support consistent fantasy success.

Week 14 Best Matchups

Season-to-date averages as valuable data points. In this section, we'll highlight teams expected to score more points than their current season average. This is a simple yet effective way to identify teams and players projected to perform better than in previous weeks.

In the table below, we compare each team's implied total points ("Total") to their season-to-date average points per game ("PPG") and calculate the expected scoring boost for the current week ("Week 14 Boost"). Here are the top matchups:

• The Dolphins have consistently appeared on this list, thanks to the offense's significant improvement since Tua Tagovailoa returned. Jonnu Smith has seen his price rise considerably but remains a bargain, averaging 8.3 catches, 100.3 yards, and 1.0 touchdowns per game over his last three.

• The Browns face a tough matchup against the Steelers, but it’s hard to bet against Jameis Winston and this passing offense right now. Expect their implied team total to potentially rise closer to kickoff, with the Week 14 boost climbing even higher than the current 11%.

• The Eagles stand out with a relatively modest 8% Week 14 Boost, paired with a massive 29.0-point implied team total. This could be a week where Saquon Barkley delivers another huge performance or one where Jalen Hurts capitalizes with multiple short rushing touchdowns.

Week 14 Worst Matchups

In the table below, we compare each team's implied total points ("Total") to their season-to-date average points per game ("PPG") and calculate the expected scoring boost for the current week ("Week 14 Boost"). For the teams below, that scoring boost will be negative. Here are the teams projected to score worse than their season averages:

• The Falcons face arguably the league’s best defense, which presents a significant challenge for their struggling passing offense. Through the first nine weeks, Kirk Cousins and the Falcons performed well, with a 17-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. However, the Atlanta passing offense has faltered over the past three games, with Cousins posting a 0-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio during this skid.

• The Chargers' passing offense has shown flashes of greatness but remains too inconsistent to rely upon. While a Justin Herbert-Ladd McConkey stack could potentially win a GPP at some point this season, it is less likely to happen in Week 14 against a formidable Chiefs defense.