DFS First Look: Week 13

Whether you're a veteran or a newcomer, the mission is to find the best value plays, identify favorable matchups, and build a winning lineup. In this early-week breakdown, we'll kickstart your DFS prep with a high-level overview of the Week 13 Main Slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.

We'll analyze the opening lines and team totals to pinpoint teams in the best spots for an offensive explosion. This helps us focus on players who could provide the best return on investment. We will also highlight the players standing out in our early-week projections as the best values. Late in the week, much of your research should be dedicated to determining which of the best points per dollar (PPD) plays you trust more than the others. Our goal is to arm you with sharp insights and data-driven visualizations so you can start honing in on the best plays before the week unfolds. 

Matchup Overview

I like starting my week with this simple visualization, which shows how much each team is favored on the X-axis and the implied team total on the Y-axis. Let's go clockwise, starting in the upper-left quadrant, and highlight teams with interesting angles in Week 13.

Note: The FanDuel Main Slate includes the Sunday Night Football matchup between the 49ers and Bills. The DraftKings Main Slate does not. 

Upper Left: Teams in this quadrant are underdogs but still projected to score above the slate's average, making them prime candidates for potential shootouts. We have three underdogs with high implied team totals this week. The Eagles' rushing offense has been on a heater. Philadelphia’s matchup against the Ravens' excellent rushing defense could put more pressure on the passing offense to have a big day to keep pace with Lamar Jackson and company. The game script sets up well for A.J. Brown. The Saints are underdogs against the Rams in what could be one of the highest-scoring games on the slate. Alvin Kamara has been posting big yardage totals on a weekly basis. If he finds the end zone against the Rams, he has a solid chance to be the slate’s highest fantasy scorer. Lastly, the Falcons have an implied team total just slightly above the slate’s average against an excellent Chargers defense that has shown some cracks over the last six quarters. This could be a spot where Kirk Cousins and the Falcons' passing offense get back on track.

Upper Right: These teams are favored and expected to score above-average points, making them key targets for both cash games and GPPs. Positive game scripts in this quadrant make it ideal for targeting running backs. It’s not often you see a team four games behind a division rival in the standings actually be a healthy favorite in that matchup, but that is what we have in Week 13 with the four-win Bengals favored over the eight-win Steelers. Joe Burrow has been on fire and could rack up fantasy points despite the difficult matchup. Baker Mayfield has quietly had another fantastic season. The Buccaneers' offense has been humming despite injuries. Bucky Irving leads a three-man backfield that is in a great spot in Week 13.

Bottom Right: These teams are favored but expected to score below average. Running backs from this quadrant are worth considering due to anticipated positive game scripts; however, caution is advised when selecting players from their passing games, given the low projected totals. The implied team totals are not attractive for the Colts and Seahawks, but the game scripts could be favorable for Jonathan Taylor and Ken Walker III if Indianapolis and Seattle can jump out to early leads.

Bottom Left: Teams in this quadrant are underdogs and expected to score below average, so it's best to roster only players in whom you have high confidence. It is a bit wild to see the San Francisco 49ers in the very bottom corner of this visualization. Things have gone south in a hurry for a team that has lived in the upper-right quadrant most weeks over the last few seasons.

Week 13 Best Matchups

Season-to-date averages as valuable data points. In this section, we'll highlight teams expected to score more points than their current season average. This is a simple yet effective way to identify teams and players projected to perform better than in previous weeks.

In the table below, we compare each team's implied total points ("Total") to their season-to-date average points per game ("PPG") and calculate the expected scoring boost for the current week ("Week 13 Boost"). Here are the top matchups:

• The Drake Maye-led version of the Patriots continues to outperform their season-to-date scoring average on a weekly basis. The Colts have allowed 20+ points to each of their last five opponents.

• The healthy wide receiver version of the Rams' offense has also maintained healthy implied team totals in recent weeks. Los Angeles was held to 20 points last week, but that was against a red-hot Eagles defense.

• Justin Herbert is healthy and looks dangerous in a Chargers offense that has become far more aggressive than most expected in the offseason. Herbert is one of my favorite tournament plays on the slate.

Week 13 Worst Matchups

In the table below, we compare each team's implied total points ("Total") to their season-to-date average points per game ("PPG") and calculate the expected scoring boost for the current week ("Week 13 Boost"). For the teams below, that scoring boost will be negative. Here are the teams projected to score worse than their season averages:

• The 49ers may or may not have Brock Purdy back for their Week 13 matchup against the Bills. Regardless of who starts, it’s a tough spot. The Bills' defense has been playing exceptionally well, and the forecast in Buffalo calls for snow and temperatures in the low 20s.

• Deciding whether to fade the Eagles-Ravens game is a key decision in Week 13. This matchup features the week’s highest game total (50.5), but both teams are projected to score well below their season-to-date averages. Analyzing these individual matchups through the lens of weekly scoring boosts may reveal better ways to attack this slate than chasing the high total in this game.

• Through Week 9, the Panthers were allowing 8.3 fantasy PPG above average (PPR scoring) to their opponents. However, since Week 10, the Panthers have become a neutral matchup for opposing running backs. Carolina's defense is trending in the right direction, which may help explain why the Buccaneers' implied team total is lower than their season-to-date average.