Whether you're a veteran or a newcomer, the mission is to find the best value plays, identify favorable matchups, and build a winning lineup. In this early-week breakdown, we'll kickstart your DFS prep with a high-level overview of the Week 12 Main Slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.

We'll analyze the opening lines and team totals to pinpoint teams in the best spots for an offensive explosion. This helps us focus on players who could provide the best return on investment. We will also highlight the players standing out in our early-week projections as the best values. Late in the week, much of your research should be dedicated to determining which of the best points per dollar (PPD) plays you trust more than the others. Our goal is to arm you with sharp insights and data-driven visualizations so you can start honing in on the best plays before the week unfolds. 

Matchup Overview

I like starting my week with this simple visualization, which shows how much each team is favored on the X-axis and the implied team total on the Y-axis. Let's go clockwise, starting in the upper-left quadrant, and highlight teams with interesting angles in Week 12.

Note: The Sunday night Eagles-Rams game is on the FanDuel Main Slate but is not included on the DraftKings Main Slate.

Upper Left: Teams in this quadrant are underdogs but still projected to score above the slate's average, making them prime candidates for potential shootouts. The Los Angeles Rams are only on the FanDuel slate. The Sunday Night matchup between Los Angeles and Philadelphia is expected to be close (Eagles favored by 3.0) and high-scoring (48.5 over/under). The Eagles defense has been the best in the NFL over the last month, but the Rams' passing offense has been lethal, with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua healthy. The divisional matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals also has shootout potential with a 47.5-point over/under. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been on a hot streak. The San Francisco 49ers-Green Bay Packers matchup also boasts a solid 47.5-point over/under, with the Packers favored by 2.5 at home. Christian McCaffrey will once again be a popular choice.

Upper Right: These teams are favored and expected to score above-average points, making them key targets for both cash games and GPPs. Positive game scripts in this quadrant make it ideal for targeting running backs. The Detroit Lions have the highest team total on the slate (29.0) once again. Either Jahmyr Gibbs or David Montgomery could easily score multiple touchdowns in this game. The Kansas City Chiefs' offense has rarely made an impact in DFS this season, but Week 12 could be different. Their 27.0-point implied team total in an easy matchup against Carolina is one of the highest of the season for Kansas City. Travis Kelce is a strong option against a Panthers defense that has been extremely generous to opposing tight ends.

Bottom Right: These teams are favored but expected to score below average. Running backs from this quadrant are worth considering due to anticipated positive game scripts; however, caution is advised when selecting players from their passing games, given the low projected totals. The Minnesota Vikings are favored despite a low implied team total this week. Cam Akers could be a viable option on a slate where value plays are scarce.

Bottom Left: Teams in this quadrant are underdogs and expected to score below average, so it's best to roster only players in whom you have high confidence.

Week 12 Best Matchups

Season-to-date averages as valuable data points. In this section, we'll highlight teams expected to score more points than their current season average. This is a simple yet effective way to identify teams and players projected to perform better than in previous weeks.

In the table below, we compare each team's implied total points ("Total") to their season-to-date average points per game ("PPG") and calculate the expected scoring boost for the current week ("Week 12 Boost"). Here are the top matchups:

• The Dolphins have averaged 27.8 PPG since Tua Tagovailoa returned, with a 26.5-point implied team total for Week 12. De'Von Achane and Jonnu Smith are standout targets, benefiting from Miami's 62% scoring boost.

• The Broncos have scored 33+ points in four of their last seven games, including a 34-18 win over the Raiders, their Week 12 opponent. Their 18% scoring boost is the third-highest on the slate, with Bo Nix performing as one of the NFL's best quarterbacks by every metric.

• The Texans receive a 13% scoring boost in Week 12, aided by the return of Nico Collins, whose impact last week against Dallas benefited the entire offense, including Joe Mixon.

Week 12 Worst Matchups

In the table below, we compare each team's implied total points ("Total") to their season-to-date average points per game ("PPG") and calculate the expected scoring boost for the current week ("Week 12 Boost"). For the teams below, that scoring boost will be negative. Here are the teams projected to score worse than their season averages:

• A key Week 12 question is whether to play Christian McCaffrey, despite the 49ers' -13% scoring boost. McCaffrey remains a focal point, playing 94% of snaps and logging 24 opportunities last week.

• The Buccaneers welcome back Mike Evans in Week 12 but face a challenging matchup against a strong Giants defense. However, there is upside if the Giants falter early, as comments from their defensive leaders suggest a team that might give up if things start poorly.