Whether you're a veteran or a newcomer, the mission is to find the best value plays, identify favorable matchups, and build a winning lineup. In this early-week breakdown, we'll kickstart your DFS prep with a high-level overview of the Week 11 Main Slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.

We'll analyze the opening lines and team totals to pinpoint teams in the best spots for an offensive explosion. This helps us focus on players who could provide the best return on investment. We will also highlight the players standing out in our early-week projections as the best values. Late in the week, much of your research should be dedicated to determining which of the best points per dollar (PPD) plays you trust more than the others. Our goal is to arm you with sharp insights and data-driven visualizations so you can start honing in on the best plays before the week unfolds. 

Matchup Overview

I like starting my week with this simple visualization, which shows how much each team is favored on the X-axis and the implied team total on the Y-axis. Let's go clockwise, starting in the upper-left quadrant, and highlight teams with interesting angles in Week 11.

Note: The Sunday night Bengals-Chargers game is on the FanDuel Main Slate but is not included on the DraftKings Main Slate.

Upper Left: Teams in this quadrant are underdogs but still projected to score above the slate's average, making them prime candidates for potential shootouts. The Bengals are only on the FanDuel slate. Expect the top weapons in this offense to be popular in a potential shootout against the Chargers. The Steelers also have an implied team total right at the slate average. George Pickens could be the next in a long line of wide receivers to feast against Baltimore’s struggling secondary. 

Upper Right: These teams are favored and expected to score above-average points, making them key targets for both cash games and GPPs. Positive game scripts in this quadrant make it ideal for targeting running backs. The Lions have a monster 30-point team total. It would not be surprising to see either Jahmyr Gibbs or David Montgomery score multiple touchdowns in this one. The 49ers are the only team with an implied total within four points of Detroit. Christian McCaffrey was not eased back in, which makes him a fantastic option in Week 11. It is interesting to see Miami, 30th in points scored per game this season, with the third-highest implied team total on the slate. De’Von Achane could put up huge numbers if Miami’s offense finally gets rolling.

Bottom Right: These teams are favored but expected to score below average. Running backs from this quadrant are worth considering due to anticipated positive game scripts; however, caution is advised when selecting players from their passing games, given the low projected totals. Notably, no team favored this week has a below-average implied team total. There are no teams favored with an implied team total below the slate average this week.

Bottom Left: Teams in this quadrant are underdogs and expected to score below average, so it's best to roster only players in whom you have high confidence.

Week 11 Best Matchups

Season-to-date averages as valuable data points. In this section, we'll highlight teams expected to score more points than their current season average. This is a simple yet effective way to identify teams and players projected to perform better than in previous weeks.

In the table below, we compare each team's implied total points ("Total") to their season-to-date average points per game ("PPG") and calculate the expected scoring boost for the current week ("Week 11 Boost"). Here are the top matchups:

• The Dolphins have the third-highest implied team total (25.8) on the slate despite ranking 30th in average points per game this season. Since Tua Tagovailoa returned, they’ve averaged 25.7 points per game over the last three games, aligning with their Week 11 implied total.

• The Jets scored well below their implied team total last week, with only 6 points in a 31-6 loss to the Cardinals. Sportsbooks expect a rebound, with an implied total of 24.0, which would be their season-high if achieved.

• The Patriots have an implied team total of 19.5 points for Week 11, a 22% increase, indicating that Drake Maye has slightly raised expectations for the offense.

Week 11 Worst Matchups

In the table below, we compare each team's implied total points ("Total") to their season-to-date average points per game ("PPG") and calculate the expected scoring boost for the current week ("Week 11 Boost"). For the teams below, that scoring boost will be negative. Here are the teams projected to score worse than their season averages: