Whether you're a veteran or a newcomer, the mission is to find the best value plays, identify favorable matchups, and build a winning lineup. In this early-week breakdown, we'll kickstart your DFS prep with a high-level overview of the Week 9 Main Slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.

We'll analyze the opening lines and team totals to pinpoint teams in the best spots for an offensive explosion. This helps us focus on players who could provide the best return on investment. We will also highlight the players standing out in our early-week projections as the best values. Late in the week, much of your research should be dedicated to determining which of the best points per dollar (PPD) plays you trust more than the others. Our goal is to arm you with sharp insights and data-driven visualizations so you can start honing in on the best plays before the week unfolds. 

Matchup Overview

I like starting my week with this simple visualization, which shows how much each team is favored on the X-axis and the implied team total on the Y-axis. Let's go clockwise, starting in the upper-left quadrant, and highlight teams with interesting angles in Week 9.

Note: The Sunday night Colts-Vikings game is on the FanDuel Main Slate but is not included on the DraftKings Main Slate.

Upper Left: Teams in this quadrant are underdogs but still projected to score above the slate's average, making them prime candidates for potential shootouts. The Cowboys stand out as the liveliest underdog here, with a matchup against Atlanta that could be high-scoring and is likely to be the most popular game stack. CeeDee Lamb just topped 25 fantasy points for the first time this season. Like last year, he had a slow start before a breakout in Week 7, so he could be gearing up for another strong second half. The Seahawks also fit this category, though I'm less sold on their shootout potential—five of the last six Rams-Seahawks matchups have gone under.

Upper Right: These teams are favored and expected to score above-average points, making them key targets for both cash games and GPPs. Positive game scripts make this quadrant ideal for targeting running backs. The usual suspects are here, including the Bills, who have scored 30+ in four of their last five against the Dolphins. If Tee Higgins returns, the Bengals also have a “get-right” opportunity. Jalen Hurts just had his best game of the season, and the Eagles now face a favorable matchup against the Jaguars.

Bottom Right: These teams are favored but expected to score below average. Running backs from this quadrant are worth considering due to expected positive game scripts, though caution is advised with their passing games given the low projected totals. The Titans, favored over New England, offer a good game script for Tony Pollard, who has seen 20+ touches in four consecutive games.

Bottom Left: Teams in this quadrant are underdogs and expected to score less, so it's best to roster only players you feel highly confident about.

Week 9 Best Matchups

Season-to-date averages as valuable data points. In this section, we'll highlight teams expected to score more points than their current season average. This is a simple yet effective way to identify teams and players projected to perform better than in previous weeks.

In the table below, we compare each team's implied total points ("Total") to their season-to-date average points per game ("PPG") and calculate the expected scoring boost for the current week ("Week 9 Boost"). Here are the top matchups:

• The Dolphins offense is back, putting up 377 total yards and scoring 27 points last week with Tua Tagovailoa back in the lineup.

• Malik Nabers posted a strong 10-127-1 line on 18 targets in his last matchup with the Commanders.

• The Seahawks have struggled against running backs, giving up 937 total yards and 7 touchdowns over the past five weeks. Kyren Williams is likely to be a popular play in this matchup.

Week 9 Worst Matchups

In the table below, we compare each team's implied total points ("Total") to their season-to-date average points per game ("PPG") and calculate the expected scoring boost for the current week ("Week 9 Boost"). Here are the teams projected to score worse than their season averages:

The Lions' first outdoor game of the season comes with a forecast of heavy rain, and with the Packers projected to score below average, this 48.5-point total may be a spot to avoid. The Lions implied team total of 26.0 is solid but the top Detroit options are arguably overpriced given they are expected to score 22% fewer points than their season average.