DFS First Look: Week 8

Whether you're a veteran or a newcomer, the mission is to find the best value plays, identify favorable matchups, and build a winning lineup. In this early-week breakdown, we’ll kickstart your DFS prep with a high-level overview of the Week 8 Main Slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.

We’ll analyze the opening lines and team totals to pinpoint teams in the best spots for an offensive explosion. This helps us focus on players who could provide the best return on investment. We will also highlight the players standing out in our early-week projections as the best values. Late in the week, much of your research should be dedicated to determining which of the best points per dollar (PPD) plays you trust more than the others. Our goal is to arm you with sharp insights and data-driven visualizations so you can start honing in on the best plays before the week unfolds. 

Matchup Overview

I like starting my week with this simple visualization, which shows how much each team is favored on the X-axis and the implied team total on the Y-axis. Let's go clockwise, starting in the upper-left quadrant, and highlight teams with interesting angles in Week 8.

Note: The Sunday night Giants-Steelers game is on the FanDuel Main Slate but is not included on the DraftKings Main Slate.

Upper Left: The teams in this quadrant are underdogs but still expected to score more than the average team on the slate, making them prime candidates for potential shootouts. For the first time I can remember, the upper left quadrant is empty. There are no underdogs projected to score more than the slate average. There are no glaringly obvious potential shootout games on this slate.

Upper Right: These are the teams favored to win and expected to score above-average points. Both in cash games and GPPs, we should focus heavily on this quadrant. Given the likelihood of positive game scripts, this is a great area to target running backs. The combination of no byes and zero underdogs projected to score an above-average amount of points means we have a ridiculously high number of 14 teams in this upper right quadrant.

Bottom Right: These are teams favored but expected to score below-average points. Typically, we’d target running backs from these teams, as positive game scripts are expected. However, due to the low projected point totals, it’s best to be cautious with their passing games. Again, for the first time I can remember, this quadrant is completely empty.

Bottom Left: This is the quadrant where we need to be cautious. These teams are underdogs and expected to score fewer points, so we should only roster players we feel extremely confident about.

Week 8 Best Matchups

We are now far enough into the 2024 season to use season-to-date averages as valuable data points. In this section, we’ll highlight teams expected to score more points than their current season average. This is a simple yet effective way to identify teams and players projected to perform better than in previous weeks.

In the table below, we compare each team’s implied total points ("Total") to their season-to-date average points per game ("PPG") and calculate the expected scoring boost for the current week ("Week 8 Boost"). Here are the top matchups:

• Dolphins: The Miami offense has struggled without Tua Tagovailoa, but with him projected to return, they are expected to score more than twice their season average in Week 8 against the Cardinals. De'Von Achane stands out as a strong value play.

• Broncos: Matchups matter, and the Broncos are set for a big boost in Week 8, projected to score 40% more points than usual. This is largely due to the Panthers giving up at least 34 points in each of their last five games.

• Jets: The sportsbooks expect the Jets offense to rebound, with too much talent to continue averaging just 18.8 points per game.

Week 8 Worst Matchups

In the table below, we compare each team’s implied total points ("Total") to their season-to-date average points per game ("PPG") and calculate the expected scoring boost for the current week ("Week 8 Boost"). Here are the worst matchups:

• New Orleans Saints: Offensive injuries are causing a significant Week 8 downgrade, as the team is expected to endure another week with Spencer Rattler at quarterback. Though Derek Carr had throwing sessions on Monday and Tuesday, he is most likely targeting a Week 10 return.

• Washington Commanders: The absence of star rookie Jayden Daniels lowers the offense's ceiling. While Marcus Mariota filled in admirably last week, the loss of Daniels is a notable setback for the unit.

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Though they still have their quarterback, Tampa Bay will be without their top two weapons, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Both were injured during the Monday Night loss to the Ravens. These injuries have opened up value options at both wide receiver and tight end, which will be key features of the Week 8 slate.

DraftKings

Let's take a position-by-position look at the top point per dollar ("PPD") plays on the DraftKings main slate. The projections shown are based on the Footballguys consensus and broken out by category. For example, the quarterback position shows projected passing fantasy points ("Pass Proj"), rushing fantasy points ("Rush Proj)", and overall projected fantasy points ("Proj"). Each table also includes the team's implied team total ("Total").

Quarterback

• Bo Nix: Surprisingly, Week 8 is shaping up as Bo Nix chalk week. The matchup against the Panthers is ideal, as Carolina has allowed 19.0 DraftKings PPG to opposing quarterbacks (6th-most). Additionally, Nix has rushed for 136 yards over the past two weeks and ranks fourth in rushing yards at the position with 255 on the season.

• Caleb Williams: Although the Washington defense has improved recently, Caleb Williams and the Bears offense have shown significant growth. Williams is underpriced, considering his recent performance, even though the matchup might not be as favorable as it seems to the public.

Running Back

• Tight Pricing at Running Back: Unlike past seasons, the pricing range at running back has been incredibly tight on DraftKings, especially in Week 8. The top dozen running backs in PPD projections are priced within a narrow $1,500 range, from $6,200 to $7,700.

• Paying for Upside: Given the tight pricing, it may be worth paying up for the receiving upside of top young backs like Breece Hall and Jahmyr Gibbs. Both are coming off strong performances last week and are only slightly more expensive than other realistic options.