DFS First Look: Week 6

Whether you're a veteran or a newcomer, the mission is to find the best value plays, identify favorable matchups, and build a winning lineup. In this early-week breakdown, we’ll kickstart your DFS prep with a high-level overview of the Week 6 Main Slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.

We’ll analyze the opening lines and team totals to pinpoint teams in the best spots for an offensive explosion. This helps us focus on players who could provide the best return on investment. We will also highlight the players standing out in our early-week projections as the best values. Late in the week, much of your research should be dedicated to determining which of the best points per dollar (PPD) plays you trust more than the others. Our goal is to arm you with sharp insights and data-driven visualizations so you can start honing in on the best plays before the week unfolds. 

Matchup Overview

I like starting my week with this simple visualization, which shows how much each team is favored on the X-axis and the implied team total on the Y-axis. Let's go clockwise, starting in the upper-left quadrant, and highlight teams with interesting angles in Week 6.

Note: Bengals-Giants is on the FanDuel Main Slate, but not on DraftKings.

Upper Left: The teams in this quadrant are underdogs but still expected to score more than the average team on the slate, making them prime candidates for potential shootouts. Three games with obvious shootout potential stand out this week, all featuring NFC East teams: the Cowboys, Giants, and Commanders.

• The Giants face arguably the worst defense in the league, the Bengals, and they’ll also have their star wide receiver Malik Nabers back in the lineup.
• The Cowboys' defense isn’t the same without Micah Parsons, so expect them to be involved in high-scoring games as long as he remains out.
• The Commanders face the Ravens in what could be one of the most exciting and high-scoring games of the week, with both quarterbacks likely to be extremely popular.

Upper Right: These are the teams favored to win and expected to score above-average points. Both in cash games and GPPs, we should focus heavily on this quadrant. This is a great area to target running backs, given the likelihood of positive game scripts.

• Week 6 is loaded with high-scoring favorites featuring star players. Unlike in recent weeks where pay-up options were limited, Week 6 offers plenty of appealing choices.
• Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Jahmyr Gibbs, Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Ja'Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jayden Reed, DeVonta Smith, and Drake London all have strong projections this week.

Bottom Right: These are teams favored but expected to score below-average points. Typically, we’d target running backs from these teams, as positive game scripts are expected. However, due to the low projected point totals, it’s best to be cautious with their passing games.

• Keep an eye on J.K. Dobbins this week. Although the Chargers have a low team total, the game script is favorable for their running game.

Bottom Left: This is the quadrant where we need to be cautious. These teams are underdogs and expected to score fewer points, so we should only roster players we feel extremely confident about.

Week 6 Best Matchups

We are now far enough into the 2024 season to use season-to-date averages as valuable data points. Starting in Week 6 and beyond, we’ll highlight teams expected to score more points than their current season average. This is a simple yet effective way to identify teams and players who are projected to perform better than they have in previous weeks.

In the table below, we compare each team’s implied total points ("Total") to their season-to-date average points per game ("PPG") and calculate the expected scoring boost for the current week ("Week 6 Boost"). Here are the top matchups:

• The Giants have a favorable matchup against a Cincinnati Bengals team that has been elite offensively but has struggled significantly on defense. This creates the perfect scenario for New York to be aggressive on offense, with a strong projection for success.

• Both sides of the Panthers-Falcons matchup are projected to see weekly scoring boosts of over 20%. This makes it a prime game to target for undervalued players.

Week 6 Worst Matchups

• The Saints will be without Derek Carr and have cooled off significantly after a strong start. This might be a week to avoid Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave.

• The Commanders and Ravens could be popular DFS picks this week, but both teams are projected to score fewer points than usual (especially Washington). Approach them with caution, and don’t be surprised if some of their top players end up being more popular than they should be.

DraftKings

Let's look at the top Point per Dollar ("PPD) plays at each position on DraftKings:

Quarterback

• Lamar Jackson broke my table this week! He’s the first player in recent weeks to project over 25 DraftKings points. His rushing projection is what sets him apart from the pack.

• Typically, we want to avoid teams playing against the Browns' defense, but Cleveland has suffered some key injuries. Over the past three weeks, they’ve allowed at least 20 points to two subpar offenses (Raiders and Giants) and then gave up 34 to Washington.

• There isn’t an obvious budget quarterback in the sub-$6K price range to feel confident about in Week 6, making paying up for quarterback in cash lineups the optimal strategy.

Running Back

• As noted above, both Atlanta and Carolina are expected to score over 20% more points than usual, making them great teams to target in Week 6 DFS lineups. Bijan Robinson and Chuba Hubbard are top options for both cash games and tournaments.

• While Alvin Kamara still projects well, it’s difficult to trust any part of the Saints' offense with rookie Spencer Rattler expected to start at quarterback.

• Jahmyr Gibbs, Saquon Barkley, and Josh Jacobs stand out as exciting tournament options this week.

Wide Receiver

• Once again, the top of our PPD projections is dominated by players from the Carolina-Atlanta game. This matchup is one to focus on for cash games and will likely be a popular game stack option in tournaments.

• Nico Collins was placed on injured reserve this morning. As a result, Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell should see significant target boosts with the Texans missing their top playmaker.

• Jalen Tolbert has averaged 6.8 targets per game over his last four outings and has a prime matchup against the Lions this week.

Tight End

• Jake Ferguson should be a lock for your cash game lineups. He’s had at least six receptions in each of his three games since returning from injury and remains affordably priced.

• Ja’Tavion Sanders played 75% of the snaps last week against the Bears and was targeted five times. While his production has been minimal this season, he’s worth considering if you’re looking to punt at tight end.

Defense

• The Buccaneers defense looks like another cash game lock. They’re priced as though they were facing Derek Carr, but instead, they’ll be up against a rookie 5th-rounder making his career debut.

FanDuel

Let's look at the top Point per Dollar ("PPD) plays at each position on FanDuel:

Quarterback

• Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, and Jayden Daniels stand out as top options for both tournaments and cash games due to their rushing upside.

• Daniel Jones is an intriguing pivot this week, thanks to his prime matchup against the Bengals. Expect Jones-Malik Nabers stacks to be very popular.

Running Back

• J.K. Dobbins is priced attractively given his role and the expected game script, with the Chargers favored as solid favorites.

• We have some great pay-up options this week, including Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, and Bijan Robinson.

• In the mid-tier, Jahmyr Gibbs and Chuba Hubbard stand out as excellent plays.

• Don’t overlook Chase Brown, who is priced at just $5,400. Zack Moss injured his ankle last week, and while it’s not serious, it could be enough for Brown to take on the lead role in Week 6.

Wide Receiver

• The Footballguys Consensus projections currently don’t rank Malik Nabers highly in PPD. However, if he practices today or tomorrow, expect him to jump into the Top 3 as his projections update.

• Both top Falcons wide receivers are underpriced after their recent breakout performances.

• A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are back in action, and the Browns will be without their top cornerback, Denzel Ward.

Tight End

• It might be a good idea to pay up in the $6,000+ range for tight end this week. Jake Ferguson will likely be a chalky play, but there are several strong options at the position. The top four on our PPD list all look great.

• After a bye week, don’t be surprised if Sam LaPorta looks healthier and takes on a bigger role than he has earlier this season. If his projected ownership is low, he could be a strong contrarian tournament play, as most will be focused on the top four tight ends.

Defense