Whether you're a veteran or a newcomer, the mission is to find the best value plays, identify favorable matchups, and build a winning lineup. In this early-week breakdown, we’ll kickstart your DFS prep with a high-level overview of the Week 6 Main Slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.
We’ll analyze the opening lines and team totals to pinpoint teams in the best spots for an offensive explosion. This helps us focus on players who could provide the best return on investment. We will also highlight the players standing out in our early-week projections as the best values. Late in the week, much of your research should be dedicated to determining which of the best points per dollar (PPD) plays you trust more than the others. Our goal is to arm you with sharp insights and data-driven visualizations so you can start honing in on the best plays before the week unfolds.
Matchup Overview
I like starting my week with this simple visualization, which shows how much each team is favored on the X-axis and the implied team total on the Y-axis. Let's go clockwise, starting in the upper-left quadrant, and highlight teams with interesting angles in Week 6.
Note: Bengals-Giants is on the FanDuel Main Slate, but not on DraftKings.
Upper Left: The teams in this quadrant are underdogs but still expected to score more than the average team on the slate, making them prime candidates for potential shootouts. Three games with obvious shootout potential stand out this week, all featuring NFC East teams: the Cowboys, Giants, and Commanders.
- The Giants face arguably the worst defense in the league, the Bengals, and they’ll also have their star wide receiver Malik Nabers back in the lineup.
- The Cowboys' defense isn’t the same without Micah Parsons, so expect them to be involved in high-scoring games as long as he remains out.
- The Commanders face the Ravens in what could be one of the most exciting and high-scoring games of the week, with both quarterbacks likely to be extremely popular.
Upper Right: These are the teams favored to win and expected to score above-average points. Both in cash games and GPPs, we should focus heavily on this quadrant. This is a great area to target running backs, given the likelihood of positive game scripts.
- Week 6 is loaded with high-scoring favorites featuring star players. Unlike in recent weeks where pay-up options were limited, Week 6 offers plenty of appealing choices.
- Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Jahmyr Gibbs, Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Ja'Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jayden Reed, DeVonta Smith, and Drake London all have strong projections this week.
Bottom Right: These are teams favored but expected to score below-average points. Typically, we’d target running backs from these teams, as positive game scripts are expected. However, due to the low projected point totals, it’s best to be cautious with their passing games.
- Keep an eye on J.K. Dobbins this week. Although the Chargers have a low team total, the game script is favorable for their running game.
Bottom Left: This is the quadrant where we need to be cautious. These teams are underdogs and expected to score fewer points, so we should only roster players we feel extremely confident about.
Week 6 Best Matchups
We are now far enough into the 2024 season to use season-to-date averages as valuable data points. Starting in Week 6 and beyond, we’ll highlight teams expected to score more points than their current season average. This is a simple yet effective way to identify teams and players who are projected to perform better than they have in previous weeks.
In the table below, we compare each team’s implied total points ("Total") to their season-to-date average points per game ("PPG") and calculate the expected scoring boost for the current week ("Week 6 Boost"). Here are the top matchups:
The Giants have a favorable matchup against a Cincinnati Bengals team that has been elite offensively but has struggled significantly on defense. This creates the perfect scenario for New York to be aggressive on offense, with a strong projection for success.
Both sides of the Panthers-Falcons matchup are projected to see weekly scoring boosts of over 20%. This makes it a prime game to target for undervalued players.
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