Whether you're a veteran or a newcomer, the mission is to find the best value plays, identify favorable matchups, and build a winning lineup. In this early-week breakdown, we’ll kickstart your DFS prep with a high-level overview of the Week 5 Main Slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.

We’ll analyze the opening lines and team totals to pinpoint teams in the best spots for an offensive explosion. This helps us focus on players who could provide the best return on investment. We will also highlight the players standing out in our early-week projections as the best values. Late in the week, much of your research should be dedicated to determining which of the best points per dollar (PPD) plays you trust more than the others. Our goal is to arm you with sharp insights and data-driven visualizations so you can start honing in on the best plays before the week unfolds. 

Matchup Overview

I like starting my week with this simple visualization, which shows how much each team is favored on the X-axis and the implied team total on the Y-axis. Let's go clockwise, starting in the upper-left quadrant, and highlight teams with interesting angles in Week 5.

Note: Buffalo at Baltimore is only included on the FanDuel Main Slate. It is not included on the DraftKings Main Slate.

• Upper left: The teams in this quadrant are underdogs but are still expected to score more than the average team on the slate. This is an easy way to identify the games most likely to turn into shootouts. Week 5 gives us a solid trio of high-scoring underdogs. The Bengals have finally fixed their offensive line, and Joe Burrow's top weapons are healthy and up to speed after missing time due to holdout (Ja'Marr Chase) or injury (Tee Higgins). The AFC North showdown versus the Ravens has shootout potential. Seemingly, every Rams game has shootout potential. The defense has struggled, while Kyren Williams has helped keep the team in games. He has rarely left the field in competitive game scripts. Houston is an underdog against a strong but beatable Bills defense that couldn't stop the Ravens last week.
• Upper right: These are the teams favored and expected to score above-average points. In both cash games and GPPs, we want to focus heavily on the teams in this quadrant. This should be an especially fruitful part of the slate to look for running backs, given that we should expect positive game scripts. The 49ers are almost off the chart in the upper-right-hand corner. The sportsbooks expect San Francisco to dominate Arizona, which makes Brock Purdy and Jordan Mason strong options in all formats. 
• Bottom right: These are teams that are favored but expected to score below-average points. Typically, we are interested in running backs (positive game scripts are expected) from these teams, but given the low totals, we should be a bit suspicious of the passing games. 
• Bottom left: This is where we want to be careful and only roster players we feel incredibly strongly about. The teams here are underdogs and are not expected to score many points. 

DraftKings

Starting this week, I will split the article into sections based first on the site and then by position. We will go through each position on DraftKings at the top and then each position on FanDuel below.

Quarterback

• In the Week 5 First Look, I broke out the quarterback projections into passing and rushing fantasy points. Given how down passing numbers are, winning DFS tournaments without your quarterback putting up big rushing numbers has been difficult. Jayden Daniels and Lamar Jackson leap off the page as the highest-upside plays at the position due to their incredibly high rushing projections of 9.3 and 9.7, respectively. 
• We have yet another week in which Deshaun Watson is popping in the early projections. Unlike past weeks, this may not be a false alarm. The Washington pass defense has been one of the league's worst, and Jayden Daniels and the Commanders offense should put up points on the other side, forcing Cleveland to be aggressive.
• Washington destroyed the Cardinals last week, and Las Vegas expects San Francisco to do the same. Playing Brock Purdy and Jordan Mason is a viable strategy in such games, given the 28.2-point team total for the 49ers.