DFS First Look: Week 4

Whether you're a veteran or a newcomer, the mission is to find the best value plays, identify favorable matchups, and build a winning lineup. In this early-week breakdown, we’ll kickstart your DFS prep with a high-level overview of the Week 4 Main Slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.

We’ll analyze the opening lines and team totals to pinpoint teams in the best spots for an offensive explosion. This helps us focus on players who could provide the best return on investment. We will also highlight the players standing out in our early-week projections as the best values. Late in the week, much of your research should be dedicated to determining which of the best points per dollar (PPD) plays you trust more than the others. Our goal is to arm you with sharp insights and data-driven visualizations so you can start honing in on the best plays before the week unfolds. In Week 5, we will begin to introduce some season-long usage stats. 

I like starting my week with this simple visualization, which shows how much each team is favored on the X-axis and the implied team total on the Y-axis. Let's go clockwise, starting in the upper-left quadrant, and highlight teams with interesting angles in Week 4.

Note: Buffalo at Baltimore is only included on the FanDuel Main Slate. It is not included on the DraftKings Main Slate.

• Upper left: The teams in this quadrant are underdogs but are still expected to score more than the average team on the slate. This is an easy way to identify the games most likely to turn into shootouts. Week 4 gives us an especially interesting trio or high-scoring underdogs. The Bills offense looked unstoppable Monday night but travel to Baltimore (FanDuel only). Despite the difficult matchup, Josh Allen should be popular. The Panthers are home underdogs against a Bengals defense that got boat-raced by the Commanders on Monday night. With Andy Dalton providing a big boost, both Chuba Hubbard and Diontae Johnson are strong options in Week 4. The Bengals offense also looked fantastic on Monday night, scoring on every single possession. With Zack Moss dominating backfield snaps, he makes for an intriguing play in this potential shootout. Last, but certainly not least, the Commanders travel to face the Cardinals. With a 49.5-point total, this game will be incredibly popular. Jayden Daniels has looked fantastic the last two weeks, and the Washington pass defense may be the worst in the NFL. It is a recipe for high-scoring shootouts, as we just saw on Monday night.
• Upper right: These are the teams favored and expected to score an above-average amount of points. In both cash games and GPPs, we want to focus heavily on the teams in this quadrant. This should be an especially fruitful part of the slate to look for running backs, given that we should expect positive game scripts. This quadrant is loaded this week. We already mentioned the Ravens (FanDuel), Bengals, and Cardinals in potential shootouts. The Texans are in a strong bounce-back spot against a Jaguars defense that got destroyed on Monday night. This could be a good week to stack C.J. Stroud with one or more of his top receivers. 
• Bottom right: These are teams that are favored but expected to score below-average points. Typically, we are interested in running backs (positive game scripts are expected) from these teams, but given the low totals, we should be a bit suspicious of the passing games. While the Raiders and Steelers are favored, the rushing opportunities are split too many ways to feel good about playing anyone on these teams.
• Bottom left: This is where we want to be careful and only roster players we feel incredibly strongly about. The teams here are underdogs and are not expected to score many points. 

Quarterback

• While Deshaun Watson continues to project well as a PPD play, his on-field performance has been terrible. Jayden Daniels should be the chalk considering he is starting to put up passing numbers to go along with his consistently elite rushing production.
• As noted above, this is a great spot for C.J. Stroud. While he does not have the rushing upside that other top quarterbacks do, he may have the highest floor of any quarterback on the slate and he is now priced below $8,000.

• After big games on Monday night, expect Jayden Daniels and Joe Burrow to be popular tournament options in Week 4. 
• Andy Dalton was the first quarterback to hit the 300-yard passing bonus and throw three touchdowns this season. Against a struggling Bengals defense, he is a solid salary-saving option. 
• Be careful with Caleb Williams. While his 363 passing yards in Week 3 were impressive, it did take him 90 offensive snaps and 52 attempts to rack up those totals. Those are unsustainable numbers. Williams is only averaging 5.3 yards per attempt on the season.