DFS First Look: Week 3

Photo: Imagn Images

Whether you're a veteran or a newcomer, the mission is to find the best value plays, identify favorable matchups, and build a winning lineup. In this early-week breakdown, we’ll kickstart your DFS prep with a high-level overview of the Week 3 Main Slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.

We’ll analyze the opening lines and team totals to pinpoint teams in the best spots for an offensive explosion. This helps us focus on players who could provide the best return on investment. We will also highlight the players standing out in our early-week projections as the best values. Late in the week, much of your research should be dedicated to determining which of the best points per dollar (PPD) plays you trust more than the others. Our goal is to arm you with sharp insights and data-driven visualizations so you can start honing in on the best plays before the week unfolds. In future weeks, we will go deeper into player utilization trends.

I like starting my week with this simple visualization, which shows how much each team is favored on the X-axis and the implied team total on the Y-axis. Let's go clockwise, starting in the upper-left quadrant, and highlight teams with interesting angles in Week 2.

Note: Kansas City at Atlanta is only included on the FanDuel Main Slate. It is not included on the DraftKings Main Slate.

• Upper left: The teams in this quadrant are underdogs but still expected to score more than the average team on the slate. This is an easy way to identify the games most likely to turn into shootouts. We have quite a few potential shootouts this week with high totals. The Eagles open as favorites at New Orleans but the line quickly swung towards the Saints, who are now favored by 3.0 in a game with a 49.5-point total. DeVonta Smith should be popular. The Cowboys are home underdogs against the 0-2 Ravens in a game with a 48.5-point total. CeeDee Lamb is off to a relatively slow start. He could get going this week. The Cardinals appear in this quadrant for the second-straight week. In Week 3, Arizona is a 3.0-point home underdog to the Lions in a game with the highest total (51.5) on the slate. Last week, they smashed in a similar spot with Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr.. having big weeks. 
• Upper right: These are the teams favored and expected to score an above-average amount of points. In both cash games and GPPs, we want to focus heavily on the teams in this quadrant. This should be an especially fruitful part of the slate to look for running backs, given that we should expect positive game scripts. This quadrant is loaded this week. The 49ers are heavy 7.0-point favorites on the road against a beat up Rams squad. With both Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel Sr.. out, the carries and targets should be more concentrated. Jordan Mason should again be chalky. The Lions have the highest total on the slate. This could be the week Sam LaPorta makes a fantasy impact.
• Bottom right: These are teams that are favored but expected to score below-average points. Typically, we are interested in running backs (positive game scripts are expected) from these teams, but given the low totals, we should be a bit suspicious of the passing games. The Titans are 3.0-point home favorites agaisnt the Packers and Tony Pollard has been dominating the backfield touches (22 to 8 for Tyjae Spears last week). 
• Bottom left: This is where we want to be careful and only roster players we feel incredibly strongly about. The teams here are underdogs and are not expected to score many points. We have some otherwise talented offenses that are projected to struggle without their starting quarterbacks (Packers and Dolphins). You have to love De'Von Achane's role, but with Miami sitting as 4.0-point road underdogs with a relatively low game total (41.5), it makes the decision whether to play him much more difficult.