Week 18 DFS Contrarian

Contrarian means opposing or rejecting popular opinion; going against the current practice. Being a contrarian in fantasy football is difficult because you're taking a risk, but it can be a winning strategy. Contrarian is where the big money is made within DFS, especially in large tournaments because you'll submit more unique lineups than your competitors.

• Mix one or two of these players within a lineup to maximize individuality.
• Do not create your entire lineup based on the contrarian picks below.

Week 18 is a difficult slate because some teams and players are motivated to finish the season strong.  Meanwhile, other teams and players aren't as motivated because they're locked into their playoff seeds or can't qualify for the playoffs. The three charts below indicate teams with extra motivation, teams who could be resting players, and players who could earn more money due to incentives. Contrarian plays could come from many different scenarios in these situations. Motivated teams will have players putting in more effort and it could equate to more production. While the resting teams could have low roster percentages backups producing or opponents that are now not overmatched by a team that was formerly superior. Money is a strong motivator for players with incentives. Please use the below charts as a guide to helping your overall lineups and not just your contrarian plays.

The key for charts:

• Player = recommended contrarian play
• Opponent = Home or away and the opponent
• FD Roster % = This week's FanDuel roster percentages
• FD Salary = FanDuel salary to roster the player
• DK Roster % = This week's DraftKings roster percentages
• DK Salary = DraftKings salary to roster the player

Contrarian Quarterbacks

Baker Mayfield has 14 TD passes in his last four games, averaging over 311 passing yards and 20 rushing yards. Mayfield has been incredible as he's willing the Bucs into the playoffs, and they can seal that spot with a win on Sunday. The good news is they're playing a Saints defense allowing over 320 yards to opponents in seven straight games and the ninth-most fantasy points to QBs.

Michael Penix Jr. has played well in his initial two starts in the NFL, but this is the most important of his career. The Falcons are battling for a playoff spot and must win on Sunday. They'll play a Panthers defense allowing the second-most fantasy points to QBs this season. Carolina will be without Pro Bowl CB Jaycee Horn and starting LB Josey Jewell to make things easier for Penix and Atlanta's offense.

It appears that Kansas City will be resting most of their starters on Sunday, making things much easier for Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos, who are fighting for the last playoff spot. Nix has thrown five TDs in his last two games while averaging 269 total yards. Monitor the Chiefs' defensive status on Sunday, but Nix is a prime candidate for a big game against backups.

Tyler Huntley completed 22 of 26 passes last week for 225 passing yards and 52 rushing yards with two total TDs. It was a good performance and kept Miami in the playoff hunt. Huntley's rushing ability is important for a DFS contrarian play, and his salary is cheap. He'll play a Jets defense allowing the third-most fantasy points to QBs. That defense will be more vulnerable with Sauce Gardner out and Quinnen Williams questionable.