Week 16 DFS Contrarian

Contrarian means opposing or rejecting popular opinion, going against the current practice. Being a contrarian in fantasy football is difficult because you're taking a risk, but it can be a winning strategy. Contrarian is where the big money is made within DFS, especially in large tournaments, because you'll submit more unique lineups than your competitors.

Mix one or two of these players within a lineup to maximize individuality.

Do not create your entire lineup based on the contrarian picks below.

The key for charts:

• Player = recommended contrarian play
• Opponent = Home or away and the opponent
• FD Roster % = This week's FanDuel roster percentages
• FD Salary = FanDuel salary to roster the player
• DK Roster % = This week's DraftKings roster percentages
• DK Salary = DraftKings salary to roster the player

Contrarian Quarterbacks

Last week broke Matthew Stafford's streak of four straight games with multiple TD passes as he faced a top-five defense against fantasy QBs. The great news for Stafford is that he faces a Jets defense which allows the second-most fantasy points to QBs. Two Jets defensive starters, Quinnen Williams and Michael Carter II, haven't practiced this week. Carter is out, and Williams is listed as questionable, which aids the Rams passing attack as a smart contrarian option. 

The Mac Jones experiment is going well in Jacksonville. He's averaging 250 passing yards in his last three starts and has thrown two TDs in two of those starts. It's impressive, considering Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis, and Evan Engram have all missed at least one game. Jones plays against a Raiders defense ranked 27th against the pass and won't have star Maxx Crosby. If Jones can keep up his connection with Brian Thomas Jr., he'll be a profitable contrarian play.

Aidan O'Connell will start across the field from Jones. O'Connell is returning from a knee injury but has practiced in full this week. His last full game was 340 passing yards and two TDs against the Chiefs. O'Connell will face the easiest pass defense in the NFL this Sunday against Jacksonville. They've allowed opponents to average over 28 points in the last four games. O'Connell and Jones both carry low salaries and face bad pass defenses. This could be your contrarian path if you want to spend heavily at other positions.

The 49ers have lost four of their last five games and are desperate. Brock Purdy had a near-flawless game two weeks ago against Chicago, but throwing in the rain was unkind to him last week. Isaac Guerendo is out this week, which forces the 49ers to start a fourth-string RB. San Francisco should have a more pass-focused game plan based on personnel because their opponent, Miami, is better at stopping the run than the pass. 

Contrarian Running Backs

James Cook has been heating up lately by producing over 100 rushing yards in two of his last three games. Despite Josh Allen's rushing TD production, Cook still has five TDs in his previous four games. Buffalo will face a Patriots defense allowing the most fantasy points to RBs this season. Cook is available as a contrarian option because of a high salary, but he's a good play as well.

D'Andre Swift hasn't scored a TD in his last four games and hasn't gone over 100 total yards since week eight. The appeal for Swift as a contrarian option comes down to opportunity and salary cost. Swift has 15 or more touches in 12 of his last 13 games and has 10 or more rushing attempts in every game this year. He's listed as one of the cheapest starter options on the slate, which bakes in his low production. However, Swift earned 89 total yards last week. He'll face a Detroit defense ranked 21st against the run but recently lost their best interior defensive lineman.

The split in touches between David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs has been almost equal this season, despite Gibbs gaining 1.4 more yards per touch. The balance is important to Detroit, which makes Craig Reynolds a good contrarian play due to Montgomery's injury. The Lions will play a Chicago defense that's allowed the second-most yards per drive since week seven and has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to RBs this season. Reynolds only has 12 touches on the season, but he could exceed that total on Sunday.

Tony Pollard hasn't practiced this week, and his status is questionable. He's practiced infrequently this season as he's been dealing with an ankle injury, but he hasn't missed a game. However, last week was his lowest snap share of the season and his least productive game of the last month. It could indicate the ankle is getting worse and opening the door for Tyjae Spears to earn touches. Last week, Spears scored two TDs, earned 92 yards, and earned a snap share of over 55%. The Colts run defense ranks near the middle of the NFL, but starting LB E. J. Speed won't play on Sunday. Please monitor Pollard's status on Sunday.

Contrarian Wide Receivers

The crowded Seattle WR group has sorted itself out with Tyler Lockett not reaching five targets in a game since week seven and has only earned four in one of his last seven games. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has taken over the WR1 role, earning seven more targets than DK Metcalf over their last five games. This is what has driven down Metcalf's roster percentage and salary in DFS. Metcalf hasn't scored a TD since week seven and only has three on the season. He's averaged just under nine TDs scored per season in his five-year career, which makes 2024 an outlier season. Metcalf will face a Vikings defense that allows the second-most fantasy points to WRs.

Michael Penix Jr. will take over the starting quarterback job in Atlanta, and Kirk Cousins will be the backup. Penix is an older rookie at 24 years old, which should help him produce earlier in his career. Rome Odunze was a big framed target Penix utilized in college, and Drake London is an even larger weapon in his arsenal with the Falcons. London has produced 53 or more receiving yards in each of his last five games while averaging just under 10 targets per game. They'll play a Giants defense, which is ranked in the middle of the pack defending the pass. However, New York won't have Dexter Lawrence II or Bobby Okereke on Sunday, and Brian Burns is questionable. The Giants' defense won't be nearly at full strength and lacking motivation at this point in the season. 

The first time Terry McLaurin played the Eagles this season, he was held to one reception for 10 yards on only two targets. In his last four games, excluding the Philadelphia contest, he's averaging over 90 receiving yards per game and has scored five TDs. Washington could be without Zach Ertz, who is questionable to play and is the second-leading receiver on the team. The third-best receiver, Noah Brown, is on the injured reserve list and WR Luke McCaffrey was limited this week due to a shoulder injury. McLaurin should see plenty of targets with a banged-up group around him.

Since week seven, the Bears defense ranks 32nd in yards per completion, 32nd in yards after the reception, and 30th in pass rush win rate. The Lions' offense will have the least amount of resistance from Chicago's defense, which may be without their best DT, Gervon Dexter Sr, and best CB, Jaylon Johnson, with questionable statuses. Jameson Williams follows up a low-production game in the last four games by earning 64 or more receiving yards. Last week, Williams produced 37 yards but also scored a TD. The Bears defense is one of the worst units in the NFL, and Williams is a big play waiting to happen.

Jerry Jeudy has averaged over 10 targets per game over his last six games and has produced just under 118 receiving yards per game. The Browns are turning the starting quarterback job over to Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who is a better runner than passer at this point in his career. Jeudy is a contrarian option due to the QB change, but he'll remain the focus of the passing game. Cedric Tillman is questionable as he recovers from a concussion, while David Njoku is questionable due to a hamstring injury. Jeudy's only other main threat for targets is Elijah Moore, who earned -1 yard with six targets last week. They'll face a Bengals defense ranked 28th against the pass and will play without starting DL Sam Hubbard and Sheldon Rankins. Tillman and Njoku's statuses will help Jeudy, but he possesses stand-alone as a contrarian play.

DeVonta Smith set season-high marks in targets, receptions, and yards last week while also scoring a TD. Smith has scored a TD in back-to-back games while averaging nine targets per game. He's priced as a solid value again this week, but likely a contrarian play due to the inconsistency of the Eagles' passing game. This week's opponent, Washington, ranks 19th in run defense and 24th in pass defense. The Commanders rank 6th in scoring offense, which could help create a game script for the Eagles to pass the football as well. Britain Covey won't play and Dallas Goedert is on injured reserve, which increases the opportunity for Smith.

Contrarian Tight Ends

FBG's Dave Kluge said Jonnu Smith has been fantasy football's TE1 over the last 10 weeks. Smith has been on fire over the last five games, averaging 9 targets for over 7 receptions, 61 yards, and a TD per game. WRs Jaylen Waddle and Dee Eskridge are doubtful and Tyreek Hill is questionable. Smith could get even more than his regular share of targets if these WRs miss all or part of the game. He's a contrarian option due to an expensive salary, but he's one of a few lineup winners at TE.

Earlier, we mentioned Chicago's defense as one of the worst in the NFL over the last part of the season. Sam LaPorta is a fantastic contrarian option at TE with this matchup. LaPorta has earned at least six targets in each of his last five games and has averaged over 51 yards per game. Last week, LaPorta set a season-highs in receptions, yards, and targets. To further convince you of LaPorta being a contrarian option at TE, he scored two TDs the last time he played Chicago.

Mason Rudolph took over as Tennessee's starting quarterback for only three drives last week, and he targeted Chig Okonkwo eight times. Rudolph will start this week, and the number of targets he threw Okonkwo's way feels significant. He won't keep up that pace, but he'll be a profitable contrarian play if he earns the same eight targets again. To help matters, the Colts allow the fifth-most fantasy points to TEs this season. Okonkwo is a cheap salary option for a contrarian lineup. 

George Kittle only has one game below 40 receiving yards this season and is averaging almost 72 yards per game. Kittle missed two games this season, but still leads the 49ers in receptions, receiving yards, and TDs. He's averaging 106 receiving yards over his last two games. The Dolphins' defense has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to TEs and their last three opponents have averaged over 25 points per game. Stacking Purdy and Kittle in a contrarian lineup could be advantageous as they're battling for a playoff spot.

Contrarian Team Defenses

The Bills defense has forced a turnover in every game but one this season and has forced 10 in their last five games. New England is averaging 19 points per game over their last six contests and they've turned the football over at least one time in that sample size. Buffalo is at home, and New England has lost four games in a row. The Bills defense is expensive but worth it.

Minnesota has the second-best defense in the NFL this season and generates the fifth-best pressure rate. PFF ranks Seattle's offensive line as the second-worst in the NFL, which has led to being tied for the third-most sacks allowed and tied for the seventh-most turnovers. The Vikings' defense carries a hefty price tag, but this is a good option for a contrarian play.