Week 15 DFS Contrarian

Contrarian means opposing or rejecting popular opinion; going against the current practice. Being a contrarian in fantasy football is difficult because you’re taking a risk, but it can be a winning strategy. Contrarian is where the big money is made within DFS, especially in large tournaments because you’ll submit more unique lineups than your competitors.

Mix one or two of these players within a lineup to maximize individuality.

Do not create your entire lineup based on the contrarian picks below.

The key for charts:

Player = recommended contrarian play

Opponent = Home or away and the opponent

FD Roster % = This week's FanDuel roster percentages

FD Salary = FanDuel salary to roster the player

DK Roster % = This week's DraftKings roster percentages

DK Salary = DraftKings salary to roster the player

Contrarian Quarterbacks

Tua Tagovailoa has been on a hot streak. Tagovailoa has three straight games with over 315 passing yards. He’s averaged 325 passing yards over his last four games with 11 passing TDs and zero INTs. He’ll face a fifth-ranked Houston pass defense this week. However, the Texans have been vulnerable lately allowing over 269 passing yards to their last four opponents. Starting S Jalen Pitre was recently placed on IR, which further helps Tagovailoa and the Miami offense.

Jayden Daniels had a midseason slump of scoring only four TDs in a four-game stretch. He’s bounced back the past two games to account for seven total TDs and averaged 295 yards per game. Daniels rushed for a combined 108 yards in the last two games, which is his best two consecutive-game stretch rushing total since weeks four and five. He’ll face a Saints defense allowing the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing QBs and a New Orleans team with not much incentive to play with motivation.

Similar to Tagovailoa, Jared Goff has played well recently. Goff has averaged 296 passing yards over his last four games throwing nine TDs versus only one INT. The Lions will host the Bills in what could be a high-scoring contest. The injury report favors Goff as a contrarian play as well. Taylor Decker will be back at LT, while starting CB Rasul Douglas is ruled out for Buffalo with two other defensive backs listed as questionable. Last week the Bills allowed 44 points and 320 passing yards to the Rams, so they’re not playing their best football.

Bo Nix’s development throughout his rookie season has been incredible. He threw one TD and only averaged 165 passing yards over the initial four games this season. This is a stark change from the seven TD passes while averaging 291 passing yards over his last three games. Nix has 30 or more pass attempts in each of his last six games, while he only had reached that benchmark in four of the initial seven games of the season. Sean Payton has Nix throwing more and running less, which is resulting in a more efficient offense. Denver had a bye last week, which gave them more time to rest, heal up, and prepare for a Colts defense that has allowed 24 or more points to four consecutive opponents and 21 or more points to seven consecutive opponents. 

Contrarian Running Backs

Bucky Irving left last week's game due to an injury, and he hasn’t practiced yet this week. Rachaad White earned 19 touches and scored two TDs last week after Irving left the game. The Chargers are a tough overall matchup for RBs this season, but White will get plenty of touches if Irving doesn’t play.

Najee Harris has either produced 90 or more total yards or scored a TD in seven of his last eight games. Harris hasn’t been efficient as of late, but he’s earned 16 or more touches in every game this season. The Eagles have been stingy against running games this season, but they’ve allowed their last two opponents to gain at least 115 rushing yards.

Breece Hall missed the last game due to a knee injury and multiple practices this week. Reports on Friday indicated Hall could play on Sunday, but I’m not a believer. This is a lost season for the Jets, which makes it puzzling they would put a star RB with a knee injury in jeopardy when he’s already torn an ACL. Monitor Hall’s status leading up to kickoff for this player option. Last week in Hall’s absence, Braelon Allen had 15 touches for 81 yards, but Isaiah Davis vultured a TD and more touches than most anticipated. The Jets face a Jacksonville defense allowing the third-most fantasy points to RBs. This matchup is too juicy to not take a chance on someone in this backfield. Similar to last week, Allen is a cheap RB option even if Davis gets some of the touches. Monitor Hall’s status leading up to kickoff for this player option.

In Jonathan Taylor’s last five games, he’s failed to score a rushing TD and only eclipsed 97 rushing yards one time, and only reached 58 rushing yards two times. Taylor is too talented a player to be corralled for long. The Colts had a bye last week, which would allow Taylor to heal up any nagging injuries. Taylor will face a Broncos defense allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to RBs. The opportunities should be there for Taylor as he’s earned 20 or more rushing attempts in six of his last eight games as well. 

Contrarian Wide Receivers

Opportunities are key in DFS, and Malik Nabers has consistently had many throughout this season. Nabers is averaging over 11 targets per game this season, and he hasn’t earned less than nine targets in his last six games. His opportunities could be enhanced this week due to playing Baltimore. The Ravens are allowing the third-most fantasy points to receivers this season. Please continue to monitor Nabers’ injury status as he’s been limited in practice due to a hip injury.

Terry McLaurin has scored a TD or earned at least 98 receiving yards in 10 of his last 11 games. He’s scored three TDs in his last two games while averaging 88 receiving yards. McLaurin has seen an increase in targets since Austin Ekeler went to injured reserve. Noah Brown won’t play on Sunday as well, which could lead to even more targets for McLaurin. 

Lots of controversy over A.J. Brown’s critical comments surrounding the passing game in Philadelphia. He has only reached 70 receiving yards in one out of his last four games, which speaks to some of the frustration. Offensive Coordinator Kellen Moore indicated he was going to focus on increasing Brown’s opportunities. The Eagles want to put this drama behind them and get the football to Brown. 

Quentin Johnston bounced back from some drops in a recent game to turn in one of his better performances of the season last week. Johnston scored a TD and tied his season-high in receptions. He’s scored a TD in four of his last six games. Johnston will face a Tampa Bay defense allowing the second-most fantasy points to receivers this season and they might be without Antoine Winfield Jr, who hasn’t practiced this week. Due to Ladd McConkey being a surprise inactive in the last game and being limited in practices this week, please keep monitoring his status because it has an impact on Johnston.

DeAndre Hopkins is showing signs of a potential big game with the Chiefs. He’s scored a TD in two of his last three games. Hopkins has earned nine targets in each of the last two games, which is only one less target than the leader Travis Kelce, during that time. The Chiefs' defense has had a negative EPA over the last six games, which would help create more passing opportunities if the trend continues against Cleveland. Hopkins faces a Browns defense allowing the 10th-most fantasy points to WRs this season.

It remains to be seen if Cedric Tillman will be active as he’s been recovering from a concussion. He’s logged two limited practices so far this week, which shows optimism for Sunday. Tillman is an intriguing contrarian play because he was averaging 76 receiving yards and three total TDs in his four full games before being injured. It appeared to be a young player breaking out in his second season, and now he’s linked to a QB, Jameis Winston, who isn’t afraid to take chances throwing the football down the field. The Chiefs’ defense has been vulnerable recently and will provide the Browns offense opportunities. David Njoku hasn’t practiced this week due to a hamstring injury. If he doesn’t play, it would make more targets available for Tillman.

Contrarian Tight Ends

Despite playing in Kelce’s shadow at TE, Noah Gray has carved out a consistent role in the offense. Gray is tied for the team lead in receiving TDs, third in receiving yards, and third in receptions. He has four consecutive games with four receptions. Gray has averaged 43 yards in those four games and scored four TDs. He’ll play a Cleveland defense allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to TEs.

Sam LaPorta had one of his best games of the season last week. He earned the most targets of his season and turned them into the second-most receptions and yards of his 2024 campaign. In the game prior, LaPorta scored two TDs, which was a season-high. He’ll play a Buffalo secondary that’s injured. Rasul Douglas and Taylor Rapp haven’t practiced this week, while Damar Hamlin missed Thursday’s practice due to back and rib injuries.

Dalton Schultz has quietly been heating up in Houston. Schultz scored his first TD of the season in their last game, and he’s topped 50 receiving yards in three of his last six games. He’s averaged over five targets per game over his last three games as well. Schultz will face a Dolphins defense that ranks near the league average in pass defense, but they’ve allowed above-average fantasy points to TEs.

Last week scared many Jonnu Smith believers as he didn’t score a fantasy point during regulation. However, he caught three passes for 44 yards and a TD in overtime. Smith has scored four TDs in his last four games and averaged over 86 yards per game. To expand further, Smith has averaged over 68 yards over his last nine games. He’s a consistent producer in this offense, and it speaks to his high salary in DFS. Smith will be facing a Houston defense without one of their best players in the secondary, Pitre, who was placed on IR.

Contrarian Team Defenses

Jake Haener gets his first career start Sunday on a Saints team with little to play for this season. They have an interim Head Coach, Alvin Kamara, who hasn’t practiced this week, and they’ve scored 14 points each of the last two games. Washington is fighting for a playoff spot and allowed only 19 points to their previous opponent. Marshon Lattimore will be playing with Washington for the first time and it’s a revenge game against his old team. The Commanders are coming off a bye week, which means they’re more rested and have more time to prepare for the Saints.

The Patriots rank 31st in scoring, 30th in red zone TD percentage, 25th in 3rd down percentage, tied for the second-worst in yards per play, and 26th overall on offense. The Cardinals' defense is below average and played poorly in week 14. However, they held all opposing teams to less than 286 offensive yards between week 9 and week 13. This contrarian play is focused on a poor New England offense and a Cardinals team fighting for a playoff spot.