Contrarian means opposing or rejecting popular opinion; going against the current practice. Being a contrarian in fantasy football is difficult because you’re taking a risk, but it can be a winning strategy. Contrarian is where the big money is made within DFS, especially in large tournaments because you’ll submit more unique lineups than your competitors.
Mix one or two of these players within a lineup to maximize individuality.
Do not create your entire lineup based on the contrarian picks below.
The key for charts:
Player = recommended contrarian play
Opponent = Home or away and the opponent
FD Roster % = This week's FanDuel roster percentages
FD Salary = FanDuel salary to roster the player
DK Roster % = This week's DraftKings roster percentages
DK Salary = DraftKings salary to roster the player
Contrarian Quarterbacks
Tua Tagovailoa has seen an increase in production the last three games throwing nine TDs with zero INTs and averaging 323 passing yards per game. He produced six TDs with four INTs in his other five games this season and averaged 231 passing yards per game. Tagovailoa will face a Jets defense without C.J. Mosley on Sunday and Sauce Gardner is doubtful to play.
Jameis Winston has averaged over 43 pass attempts per game in his five starts in Cleveland. That number increases to just under 48 pass attempts per game if you take out the snowstorm game against the Steelers. Winston is averaging 336 passing yards and 2 TDs per game in his last five games. The Steelers have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but Winston should still produce if he gets anywhere near the same amount of pass attempts in his last five games.
Are the Steelers letting Russ cook? Last week, Russell Wilson threw for 414 yards and 3 TDs. He’s posted a QB passer rating of over 108 in four of his six starts this season. Wilson faces a Browns defense that he threw for 270 yards and 1 TD with a completion percentage of 75 just three weeks ago on the road. This DFS play is a bit of a heat check. Wilson has averaged over 9.5 yards per pass in his last two starts as well. If you think Russ is going to keep cooking, then add him to a lineup or two.
Kirk Cousins hasn’t thrown a TD pass since week nine but has thrown six INTs in his last three games. This information explains why his roster percentage is low and he’s available as a contrarian play. Cousins is very comfortable playing at Minnesota as he did it for six years. He’s also familiar with some of the personnel on the Vikings and defensive coordinator Brian Flores. The revenge factor is in play here and Cousins would like nothing more than to remind his former team of his level of play and knock down this Vikings team a peg. The Vikings have allowed an average of 278 passing yards over their last three games and CB Stephon Gilmore won’t play on Sunday.
Contrarian Running Backs
James Cook has earned 60 total yards or scored a TD in all but one game this season. He’s scored six TDs in his last five games while averaging 87 total yards per game. Last week, he earned his second 100-yard rushing game of the season by averaging 7.64 YPC. Cook will face a vulnerable Rams defense ranking 26th in run defense.
The Raiders RB position is a bit of a mystery. Zamir White won’t play on Sunday. Ameer Abdullah will play despite being on the injury report with a foot injury. Alexander Mattison is questionable to play with an ankle injury and limited during practice all week. On the season, Abdullah is averaging 4.26 YPC and Mattison is averaging 3.3 YPC. Now let's meet Sincere McCormick, who only has rushing attempts the last two games, but has averaged 5.71 YPC with 96 rushing yards. YPC isn’t the end-all-be-all, but the Raiders have been more efficient with McCormick and it’ll be interesting to see if he’s gained the trust of coaches to earn more touches. McCormick is worth a contrarian play due to his low roster percentage, but also because of a cheap salary.
Travis Etienne Jr.’s 2024 hasn’t gone according to plan, but things are improving. Etienne’s seen an increase in snap share to over 52% in the last three games and earned 12 or more touches in each of those games. He’ll face a Tennessee defense that’s banged up. DT T’Vondre Sweat, LB Kenneth Murray Jr., CB Roger McCreary, and LB Jerome Baker are all questionable after not practicing this week. Etienne could be the cheap salary player in a contrarian lineup that has multiple stars in other roster spots.
Touches are crucial in DFS, and Chuba Hubbard has been the guy for Carolina this year. Hubbard has 12 or more touches in his last 11 games and 17 or more touches in 9 of his last 10 games. The Panthers look his way near the goal line as Hubbard has scored four TDs in his last four games as well. He’ll face an Eagles defense ranked sixth against the run and allowing the third-least fantasy points to RBs this season, which is why he’s available as a contrarian play.
Contrarian Wide Receivers
Rome Odunze has earned just under eight targets per game in his last six games but only averaged 50 receiving yards per game. Caleb Williams has been missing Odunze on some deep passes, and the variance has to have them connect on one of them soon. D.J. Moore hasn’t practiced this weekend it will greatly help Odunze’s opportunities if Moore misses the game. D'Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson haven’t practiced this week, while Keenan Allen is dealing with an ankle injury but practiced. Odunze will be playing a 49ers defense dealing with many injuries, which should favor the Bears on Sunday.
Two of Darnell Mooney’s worst three games have come in his last two contests, which speaks to his low roster percentage. Mooney has been dealing with an injury, but he looks to be healthier than in past weeks, as he practiced in full on Thursday. The Vikings are allowing the second-most fantasy points to WRs this season, and starting CB Gilmore won’t play.
DeVonta Smith has missed the last two games due to a hamstring injury, but he’s been a full practice participant this week. The Eagles will likely be without Dallas Goedert due to a knee injury, which should make some targets available. Smith is averaging 57 yards per game this season and has scored a TD in just under half of his games. He’ll play a Carolina defense ranked 29th against the pass.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling is still learning the offense in New Orleans, as he’s been there just over a month. However, he’s on fire in the last three games, scoring four TDs and averaging 77 receiving yards per game. Injuries to Olave and Shaheed have created opportunities for Valdes-Scantling, but Taysom Hill’s new injury will open more doors for him. Bub Means missed practice on Thursday due to an ankle, which could further help Scantling’s cause. Valdes-Scantling has made the most of his ten targets in New Orleans, but he’s earned more target opportunities and injuries to other players should help as well.
Week 13 was Parker Washington’s best week of the season, earning 12 targets and using them to produce 103 yards, a TD, and a two-point conversion. The film reveals Washington was close to having a bigger day on several plays as well. Washington’s snap share has increased due to Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis not playing. He’s had two other solid weeks recently, with 41 and 46 receiving yards. Tennessee’s 21st-ranked pass defense will attempt to close down the Jacksonville passing attack. Washington’s rapport with Mac Jones is growing and the potential is too great to ignore in a contrarian lineup for a low salary.
Tyreek Hill has scored a TD in three of his last four games. He’s produced 60 or more receiving yards in four of his last six games. Hill hasn’t had a monster week like in past years, but his production has become steady recently, which increases his floor in DFS. Miami will be playing at home in December. Hill will face a tough Jets defense, but Sauce Gardner hasn’t practiced this week due to a hamstring injury. If Gardner doesn’t play, then this becomes a potential high-ceiling game for Hill.
Contrarian Tight Ends
If Goedert is listed out on Sunday, Grant Calcaterra becomes a great cheap TE play. Calcaterra stepped up when Goedert was injured earlier this season to produce 30 or more receiving yards in three of the four games. Calcaterra isn’t likely to be a ceiling play, but he’s a cheap option if you want to save some salary to spend more on other positions.
Jonnu Smith is on the higher end of the roster percentages to be a contrarian play, but he’s playing too well to ignore. Smith has averaged 100 receiving yards and a TD over his last three games. This is incredible production for a TE. In the five previous games, Smith averaged 54 receiving yards as well. The floor and ceiling are high, which makes Smith a near-automatic player in DFS.
In the last five games, Juwan Johnson has averaged over 35 receiving yards per game. Taysom Hill’s knee injury will open the door for more opportunities for Johnson in an offense lacking weapons outside of Alvin Kamara. Please monitor Johnson’s status on Sunday as he’s been limited in practice with a foot injury.
Seattle ranks fifth in the NFL in pass attempts per game, and Noah Fant takes advantage by earning at least four targets in his last four games. He’s averaged almost 41 receiving yards per game over his last seven games, which provides a solid floor for a cheap TE play. Fant hasn’t scored a TD since 2022, and the odds are against that continuing for a long time in a high-passing offense.
Contrarian Team Defenses
The Raiders have scored more than 20 points in only one of their last nine games and rank 27th in the NFL in points per game. Aidan O’Connell didn’t practice on Thursday due to illness, and they’re very depleted at RB due to injuries. Tampa Bay’s defense is below average, but they’ve forced a turnover in 10 of their last 11 games and rank 13th in red zone defense.
The Eagles have one of the best defenses in the NFL. They rank fourth in points allowed, first in yards, second in 3rd down percentage, and fifth in red zone defense. Only one opponent has scored over 20 points on this defense in the last eight games. They’ve forced 12 turnovers in their previous six games. Carolina has averaged 23 PPG over their last four games but only 313 yards, which means they’re scoring too often based on the yardage gained. The Eagles have allowed 300 or more yards in only one of the last eight games. That trend should continue against Carolina.
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