Week 7 DFS Contrarian

Contrarian means opposing or rejecting popular opinion; going against the current practice. Being a contrarian in fantasy football is difficult because you’re taking a risk, but it can be a winning strategy. Contrarian is where the big money is made within DFS, especially in large tournaments because you’ll submit more unique lineups than your competitors.

Mix one or two of these players within a lineup to maximize individuality.

Do not create your entire lineup based on the contrarian picks below.

The key for charts:

Player = recommended contrarian play

Opponent = Home or away and the opponent

FD Roster % = This week's FanDuel roster percentages

FD Salary = FanDuel salary to roster the player

DK Roster % = This week's DraftKings roster percentages

DK Salary = DraftKings salary to roster the player

The Chiefs are 5-0, but they’re not dominating opponents. Patrick Mahomes II has thrown as many interceptions as touchdowns and they’re missing a few weapons on offense. Sound familiar? Doubting Mahomes and Andy Reid has proved risky in the past because they evolve and find ways to succeed. The 49ers defense is ranked 13th in the NFL and they’ve recently lost star players Javon Hargrave and Talanoa Hufanga, who make this unit more vulnerable than the public perceives. All eyes will be on this game and it could be a high-scoring affair. Mahomes as a contrarian play in this environment is enticing.

C.J. Stroud has thrown six TDs in the last three games and averaging 289 passing yards per game. Last week, Stroud threw a season-high three TDs on only 31 pass attempts on the road. The Packers' defense has improved this season with a focus on creating turnovers. However, they allow the 16th most fantasy points to QBs, and star CB Jaire Alexander has been limited all week in practice with a groin injury. If Alexander can’t play, look for Stroud to take on the challenge of attacking a young Packers secondary playing with a lot of confidence right now.

Josh Allen bounced back from a dip in production to account for three TDs last week against a good Jets defense. Allen has only thrown for over 250 passing yards in one game this season, but he’s reducing turnovers by not throwing an INT in 2024. The addition of Amari Cooper could be huge for Buffalo. Cooper takes the pressure off the rest of this young skill group and gives Allen a true top target. He is expected to play this week and should take less time to get acclimated as he’s a veteran in the NFL. Allen has thrown for multiple TDs in all four games against the Titans historically. The Titans' defense has been good, but L’Jarius Sneed hasn’t practiced this week and is questionable to play with a quad injury. 

Joe Burrow threw 12 TD passes against only two INTs and averaged 302 passing yards per game between week two and week five. Burrow’s performance last week against the Giants was subpar. He’ll play a Browns team this week, that is deflated and dealing with injuries. The Browns will be without a starting safety, Denzel Ward has been limited in practice with a hamstring, and multiple other defenders are questionable and on the injury report. Cleveland isn’t the same defense as in 2023. The Browns are the 19th-ranked defense and 19th-ranked pass defense. Burrow has a great opportunity to get back on track this Sunday.