Derrick Henry is a Baltimore Raven
Henry is one of the best running backs of his generation, and he's been a fixture at or near the top of the league's rushing totals for most of his career. He's become synonymous with the Tennessee Titans, but like many great players before him, he'll finish his career elsewhere after signing a 2-year, $16 million contract to become the Baltimore Ravens' new feature back. Fantasy managers are embracing the change, and Henry is being drafted 8th among running backs and 20th overall.
Should you pay that price on draft day? To answer that question, we need to assess the following suppositions:
- Henry remains a productive player.
- The Ravens' offense is suited to his play style.
- The Ravens' offensive line is an asset.
- He'll stay a workhorse despite his age and new team.
1) Henry Remains Productive
Henry is 30 years old and entering his ninth season, causing some to worry he's about to hit some age or workload-related cliff. While the cumulative workload takes a toll on every NFL player, it's foolhardy to draw a hard line in the sand based on someone's age or career touches.
Derrick Henry Career Stats
| Year | Team | Gms | Rush | RuYds | YPR | RuTD | Tgts | Recs | RecYds | RecTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | TEN | 15 | 110 | 490 | 4.5 | 5 | 15 | 13 | 137 | 0 |
| 2017 | TEN | 16 | 176 | 744 | 4.2 | 5 | 17 | 11 | 136 | 1 |
| 2018 | TEN | 16 | 215 | 1,059 | 4.9 | 12 | 18 | 15 | 99 | 0 |
| 2019 | TEN | 15 | 303 | 1,539 | 5.1 | 16 | 25 | 18 | 206 | 2 |
| 2020 | TEN | 16 | 378 | 2,027 | 5.4 | 17 | 31 | 19 | 114 | 0 |
| 2021 | TEN | 8 | 219 | 937 | 4.3 | 10 | 20 | 18 | 154 | 0 |
| 2022 | TEN | 16 | 349 | 1,538 | 4.4 | 13 | 41 | 33 | 398 | 0 |
| 2023 | TEN | 17 | 280 | 1,167 | 4.2 | 12 | 36 | 28 | 214 | 0 |
| Total | 119 | 2,030 | 9,501 | 4.7 | 90 | 203 | 155 | 1,458 | 3 |
Henry averaged 4.2 yards per rush last season, tied for the worst mark of his career. But everything else looked good, including his 12 rushing touchdowns. Don't let the yards-per-rush average lead you to the wrong conclusion; that metric likely says nothing about his underlying skills and speaks more to the Titans' offensive line falling apart last season (more on that later).
If you want more confirmation that Henry remains a top producer, consider the following:
- 280 rushing attempts (#1 among NFL RBs)
- 1,167 rushing yards (#2)
- 12 rushing touchdowns (#5)
- 2.0 yards before contact (#28 -- His line did him no favors)
- 2.1 yards after contact (#12)
- 23 broken tackles (#6)
- 33% breakaway percentage (#6)
Despite this statistical evidence, some of you still think, "Yes, but he's 30 years old." Fair enough, if his age is offputting, it probably doesn't matter what I say to the contrary. But let me leave you with one more data point: there have been fifty-one (51) 1,000-yard rushing seasons by 30-plus-year-old running backs in the modern era.
2) The Ravens' Offense is Well Suited to His Play Style
Last year, the Ravens changed offensive coordinators from Greg Roman to Todd Monken. Many expected Monken's arrival would lead to changes in the Ravens' offensive approach, possibly leading to a more conventional pass/run ratio. But a year later, we now know that the Ravens' offensive identity under Monken looks very similar to what they had previously.
Ravens Pass and Rush Data, and NFL Team Rankings (2019-2023)
| Year | Offensive Coordinator | PaAtts | Rushes | PassRank | RushRank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Greg Roman | 440 | 596 | 32 | 1 |
| 2020 | Greg Roman | 406 | 555 | 32 | 1 |
| 2021 | Greg Roman | 611 | 517 | 9 | 3 |
| 2022 | Greg Roman | 488 | 526 | 28 | 7 |
| 2023 | Todd Monken | 494 | 541 | 30 | 1 |
As long as John Harbaugh is the head coach and Lamar Jackson is under center, the Ravens will be a run-heavy team that needs a potent ground attack.
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