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Primed For Success. Again

The number one receiving option for the best quarterback in fantasy football, not named Patrick Mahomes, is available outside the top 50 in average draft position (ADP). He set the franchise record for tight end receptions in a season as a rookie.

And he might be even better this year.

• Elite quarterback? Check.
• Wide open competition for targets? Check.
• High-end draft pedigree? Check.
• Immediately productive last year as a rookie? Check. 

Offensive Environment

Which team lost the most targets in 2023? Since this is a Kincaid article, you might guess the Bills. However, it was the Chargers, but the Bills were not far behind with 308 targets lost, including receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis.

This presents ample opportunity.

Diggs accounted for 22% of Josh Allen’s career completions. He will be missed. Davis provided a consistent vertical presence, highlighted by his four-touchdown game against the Chiefs in the 2021 NFL playoffs.

To fill these departures, the team added Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel via the draft and free agency. Coleman, a raw rookie, has drawn comments about the difficulty of adapting to the NFL. Samuel, now in his eighth season, has topped 97 targets and 656 yards only once.

Khalil Shakir is the holdover.

Shakir climbed the depth chart, initially ceding snaps to Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty. After Ken Dorsey's dismissal and Joe Brady's promotion to offensive coordinator, Shakir saw a 70% snap share and a 12% target rate.

These are all receivers, yet this article is about a tight end. What’s the relevance?

Evolving Personnel Packages

Kincaid played 50% of his snaps from the slot, 31% inline, and 18% out wide. Dawson Knox makes this possible. The veteran Knox saw a shift in usage, with his inline-to-slot split moving from 49%-34% in 2022 to 60%-26% in 2023.

The NFL is blending the move tight end with the big slot role to integrate 12 personnel with three receiver sets. These packages create conflicts, putting the run game in favorable situations against nickel coverages while forcing linebackers to cover in space. Kincaid is an archetype for this role, allowing his teammates to serve in more traditional roles.

The team tried to develop Knox as a receiving threat, but he struggled with drops and consistency early in his career. His ADOT dropped from 9.1 in his rookie year (2019) to 7.0 in 2023. He shifted from a downfield threat to a safety valve. Although he graded high as a pass blocker, blocking and catching simultaneously is challenging.

A common narrative is that Kincaid needed Knox out of the lineup for his production to skyrocket. Knox missed Weeks 8-12, which increased Kincaid’s per-game production.

However, diving deeper shows that the narrative is overblown. Three of Kincaid’s four best games came with Knox in the lineup. The stretch after Knox’s return included a blowout win over Dallas, which matched Josh Allen’s rookie debut for the fewest passes thrown in a full game at 15. Removing that two-target, zero-reception game pushes Kincaid to six targets and 50.5 yards per game.

Kincaid’s increased usage coincided with several factors: Brady’s promotion, Stefon Diggs fading out of the offense (from 11.3 targets per game in the first seven weeks to 7.8 after that), and the natural acclimation period for a rookie. These factors contributed to Kincaid's production more than a lack of competition at his position.