Cracking FanDuel Week 14

Sunday Morning Update

Sunday Morning Update: 8:55AM EST

In a surprising move, the Saints activated Kendre Miller from IR yesterday. While it's a slight downgrade to Alvin Kamara, it's still a situation where Kamara is going to have as many touches as he can handle this week given the injury to Taysom Hill. It's hard to see Miller taking more than what Taysom Hill had, so for Kamara to have around 26 touches would be in line with his recent average.

The big question, that I've been going back and forth with is Isaac Guerendo or Zach Charbonnet. I'm sticking with Guerendo for a couple of reasons. The matchup is certainly better against the Bears who are allowing 139 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs since Week 8, while Arizona is allowing just 78 yards. The second reason is that Charbonnet has failed in four of his five starting opportunities over the last two seasons. The only time he had success was in his most recent start against at the time a bad Miami run defense that has aged well as that defense has greatly improved. 

No change to the Primary Cash Lineup unless a significant injury at which there will be a second post. 

• QB Jameis Winston, CLE, $6,900
• RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $9,200
• RB Isaac Guerendo, SF, $5,200
• WR Jerry Jeudy, CLE, $6,100
• WR Calvin Ridley, TEN, $6,300
• WR Jauan Jennings, SF, $6,400
• TE Travis Kelce, KC, $6,800
• Flex Saquon Barkley, PHI, $10,000
• TD Las Vegas, $3,100

Sunday Morning Update: 11:38AM EST

George Pickens has been ruled out. While this should open up opportunity for Mike Williams, he's not trustworthy enough to trust on this slate

SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.

• Philadelphia (vs CAR) – 29.0 points
• Buffalo (at LAR) – 27.0 points
• Tampa Bay (vs LAR) – 26.25 points
• Minnesota (vs ATL) – 25.5 points
• Miami (vs NYJ) – 25.25 points
• Pittsburgh (vs CLE) – 25.25 points

Week 13 Recap

Week 13 was a week that we simply had to have if we want to finish profitable for the Primary Cash Lineup. Thankfully, it was a no stress week as the lineup finished in the top 5% of all lineups. This takes the Primary Cash Lineup to 8-5 on the season. 11-7 is what is ultimately needed to call the year profitable as 10-8 is a break-even year based on the rake. Last week, every player did what they ultimately were supposed to do, and we missed some of the key land mines on the slate. Bijan Robinson was the leader of the group as he put up 25.5 points at just 25% rostered. If there was a mistake, it would have been taking the Jaguars and not finding a way to get up to the Jets defense who had 16 points at $3,700.

Injuries Create Opportunity:

• Breece Hall is doubtful this week with a knee injury. Braelon Allen will get the start for the Jets. Allen is going to be popular at just $5,200, and while he’s shown flashes, he is averaging just 3.6 yards per carry on the season for a team that struggled to move the ball with Breece Hall. There’s certainly risk with Allen this week, but he should see the majority of the workload.
• Taysom Hill is out for the Saints. They also had hoped to get Bub Means back at wide receiver, but he will also miss another week. The Saints are now without Hill, Means, Chris Olave, and Rashid Shaheed.  This should open up Alvin Kamara to have about as many touches as he can handle, but it could also open the door for Juwan Johnson to be a low-end tight end this week.
• Malik Nabers is questionable with a hip injury. If he were to miss this week, Theo Johnson would get a nice bump, as would Darius Slaton and Wan’Dale Robinson, but neither receiver is cheap enough to be a core building block, given the lack of upside with Drew Lock at quarterback.
• Cedric Tillman will once again miss for Cleveland with a concussion. This should greatly benefit Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore who did not see their price increase due to the breakout performance happening on Monday Night after pricing had been released. Of the two, Jeudy is the player with more upside due to Moore averaging just 8.9 yards per catch.
• Bucky Irving is questionable with a hip injury. While it seems like he’s going to play, if he were to miss, Rachaad White would be a near must-start.
• Ken Walker III is questionable with an ankle injury. If he were to miss, Zach Charbonnet would get the start. While Charbonnet has not been overly inspiring this season, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry, he has shown ability as a receiving back early on in the year and does have the game against Miami in which he had 91 rushing yards and two touchdowns. At $5,300 he’s a strong cash option this week.
• D’Andre Swift is questionable, while Roschon Johnson is out for the Bears. Swift did get a limited practice in on Friday after missing Wednesday and Thursday. The team did sign Demetric Felton in case Swift is unable to go, but Travis Homer is the only running back on the active roster. Homer is more of a special teams player, so it could be Darrynton Evans who would get the bulk of the carries this week, although a committee approach would be the most likely scenario.
• Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason are both out for the season. This will put Isaac Guerendo as the starting running back for the 49ers. Guerendo has all the tools here to be a starting running back, as his physical attributes are 220 pounds and running a 4.33 40-yard dash. However, this will be the first time as a multi-game starter since high school, as he was a backup to Braelon Allen at Wisconsin and Jawhar Jordan at Louisville. At $5,200, he’s the top cash option this week.

Week 13 Slate Thoughts- Similar Lineups

These are the type of weeks that are the hardest. When it almost seems too easy to build a lineup, it ultimately means that everyone is going to have a near identical lineup. This week, both Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara are facing the two worst run defenses in the NFL. With that said, you also have three nearly identical running backs in Isaac Guerendo, Braelon Allen, and Zach Charbonnet who are all going to be tremendous values. At wide receiver, you’re going to see people gravitate towards the numerous underpriced receivers between $6k-$7k as these players have nearly as much upside as the more expensive receivers.

Option 1: Taking Both Alvin Kamara and Saquon Barkley- Cash Option