Cracking FanDuel Week 12

Sunday Morning Update

Check back each Sunday Morning around 10:30AM EST for any update to the Primary Cash Game Lineup

SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.

• Detroit (vs IND) – 29.0 points
• Washington (vs DAL) – 27.5 points
• Philadelphia (at LAR) – 26.5 points
• Miami (vs NE) – 26.5 points
• Kansas City (at CAR) – 25.5 points

Week 11 Recap

Week 11 was a disaster, taking the Primary Cash Lineup to 7-4 during the season. I posted the following on my Twitter account, and I still stand by it almost a week later. I simply failed everyone who followed this article last week. It was one of the worst weeks that I’ve had over the last 9 years that I’ve been doing this article. Not going to waste a lot of time even dissecting it. Drake Maye was the highlight and the only good play, but even then, playing him over a player like Justin Herbert or Bo Nix, who made up about 75% of the roster percentage.

I’ve always been someone who beats to my own drum when it comes to roster building. I started playing DFS in 2010 and have been working with Footballguys since 2015. Not following the industry consensus is critical to have successful years. Some weeks, my lineups may end up similar to the consensus, and most weeks, there will be some unique plays where I may be different than the consensus. When that happens, you can look really smart, and we celebrate those weeks, but when the consensus crushes it and my unique plays fail to meet expectations, it is going to end badly.

To my knowledge, no one else in the industry posts and tracks their results each and every week. I believe transparency is critically important, and having that trust from each and every one of you that are spending money with Footballguys is why we do this.

Thank you for coming back to read this article after last week. It’s only upward from here.

Total points scored- 88.18

Primary Cash lineup:

• QB Drake Maye, NE, $6,700- 18.98
•  RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $8,200- 10.9
• RB Christian McCaffrey, SF, $9,800- 12.6
• WR Khalil Shakir, BUF, $6,500- 11.0
• WR Kayshon Boutte, NE, $4,900- 5.3
• WR Calvin Ridley, TEN, $6,400- 7.8
• TE Travis Kelce, KC, $7,400- 1.8
• Flex Chase Brown, CIN, $6,800- 16.8
• TD Indianapolis, $3,000- 3.0

Injuries Create Opportunity:

• Brock Purdy will not play this week. This is a big downgrade to all players in the San Francisco offense, but likely also on the Green Bay passing offense, as it should ultimately lead to a slower-paced game. Brandon Allen at $6k could be a GPP play, as he did have a 371 passing-yard performance back in 2020, but his floor is just too low to trust in cash.  
• The New York Giants are going with Tommy DeVito this week after releasing Daniel Jones this week. At $6k, he’s likely going to get some interest, especially since he’s only $4k on DraftKings, and we’ve seen people, for some reason, play FanDuel identically to DraftKings. Playing DeVito is a mistake, even though the matchup is favorable against Tampa Bay.
• Devonta Smith will miss this week with a hamstring injury. At $8,500, A.J. Brown is expensive but should be the primary receiver in a potential high-scoring game between the Eagles and Rams this week.
• Mike Evans looks like he will be returning this week, as he was a full participant on Thursday and a limited participant on Friday. At $8k, he’s a little too expensive for a player who may still be less than 100%.
• Bucky Irving is questionable with a toe injury. It’s very unlikely that he would miss this week, but if, for some reason, he did, Rachaad White would be one of the best plays on this slate.
• Both Alexander Mattison and Zamir White look like they will miss this week. Dylan Laube is priced at a minimum of $4k, while Ameer Abdullah is only $5k. It would seem likely that Abdullah would get the majority of the work.

Week 12 Thoughts:

Week 12 is a crossroads week for this article. At 7-4 for the season, there is a massive difference between 8-4 and 7-5 in terms of profitability for the overall season. Admittedly, if not for writing this article, this might be a week that I would have taken off simply to clear my mind and reset, but instead, I’ve spent about 18 hours on this trying to figure out what to do.