Cracking FanDuel Week 9

Sunday Morning Update

Sunday Morning Update #2: 11:54 AM EST

The big news this morning is Brian Robinson Jr and Amari Cooper are both out. This should be an upgrade to Austin Ekeler and Khalil Shakir. 

Shakir is a better play than Calvin Ridley this week as he just feels safer in a better game environment with a better quarterback. Regarding Ekeler, the only move that could be made would to downgrade either Chase Brown or D'Andre Swift and upgrade Jaxon Smith-Njigba. 

This has caused a complete shakeup in the lineup that I'm now building both CeeDee Lamb and Alvin Kamara in the same lineup. 

• QB Lamar Jackson, BAL, $8,900
•  RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $8,800
• RB Chase Brown, CIN, $6,300
• WR Calvin Ridley, TEN, $6,200
• WR Khalil Shakir, BUF, $6,100
• WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL, $9,100
• TE Kyle Pitts, ATL, $6,000
• Flex RB Austin Ekeler, WAS, $5,500
• TD Las Vegas, $3,000

Sunday Morning Update #1: 10:23 AM EST

This is an important week. I've spent a lot of time looking at alternative lineups, and keep landing back to the Primary Cash Lineup. Aaron Jones is a player that I really don't understand why he's as high as he is in a lot of models. He's a fine player, good, not great, and $7,500 seems a fair price for him. I'm ok to fade against him this week if he's going to be popular. 

Kamara also worries me. The matchup is ideal, he gets Derek Carr back, but based on past history, just is a player who historically has not performed when I've had him in my lineup. Hopefully that changes today and not going to let history get in the way of the lineup this week.

Also, some of you have asked to return the high dollar head-to-head series to see how opponents are building their lineups. I will be screenshotting a $1,000 head to head that I'll be posting the matchup here once it goes live this afternoon, so check back later today for that screenshot.

Good Luck everyone, we need a winner this week.

• QB Lamar Jackson, BAL, $8,900
•  RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $8,800
• RB Chase Brown, CIN, $6,300
• WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA, $6,500
• WR Calvin Ridley, TEN, $6,200
• WR Chris Olave, NO, $7,100
• TE Kyle Pitts, ATL, $6,000
• Flex RB D’Andre Swift, CHI, $7,200
• TD Las Vegas, $3,000

SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.

• Buffalo (vs MIA) – 28.0 points
• Baltimore (vs Den) – 27.25 points
• Atlanta (vs DAL) – 27.25 points
• Cincinnati (vs LV) – 27 points
• Philadelphia (vs JAC) – 26.5 points
• Detroit (vs GB) – 26.0 points
• Minnesota (vs IND) – 25.75 points
• New Orleans (vs CAR) – 25.25 points
• LA Rams (vs SEA) – 25.25 points

Week 8 Recap

Writing this article this week is not fun. The Primary Cash Lineup  is now 5-3 on the season after two losing weeks. While it’s easy to panic after a couple of difficult weeks, we’ve had a four-week losing streak in prior years and still ended up being profitable for the season. However, it’s important to breakdown what happened and if there are changes to be made going forward. The two losses are very different. The Sunday Morning update two weeks ago in hindsight was just a terrible and unnecessary overreaction to Cooper Kupp being out. It never should have changed the Primary Cash Lineup and it would have ended up a winning week.

This past week however, even with hindsight, I’m not sure I would change anything.

• If you told me Philadelphia was going to win 37-17, I’m definitely going to want A.J. Brown over Ja’Marr Chase especially with Brown being 10% rostered and Chase being 55%. Brown outgained Chase, but Chase found the end-zone. Those things happen.
• If you told me that Derrick Henry was going to average 6.6 yards per carry in a game that the Ravens scored 24 points, I sign up for that all day long at 7% rostered. However, he only had 11 carries for some inexplicable reason that ended up costing Baltimore who was a 9 point favorite the game.
• The only thing that I likely should have considered was going down to Bo Nix as the Footballguys Optimizer suggests. Our projections team does a great job, however as most of you know, I build the Primary Cash Lineup with my own projections, and then look to both Footballguys projections and consensus projections across the industry to see where I might be off on certain players and whether I’m ok with taking on that level of risk. This leads to sometimes having different lineups than just a chalk optimal lineup with every player being 40-50% rostered. I don’t view running an optimal lineup as a long-term winning strategy based on the 14 years I’ve been playing DFS.
• Trey Palmer saw two early targets, and then the team went heavily towards their tight ends and running backs. With Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both out and Baker Mayfield throws for 330 yards, taking one of these receivers seemed like a good opportunity. None of the receivers worked out, and Cade Otton could become a top tight end going forward until those players get back.

Total points scored- 91.06

• Primary Cash lineup:
• QB Lamar Jackson, BAL, $8,800- 24.16
• RB Breece Hall, NYJ, $7,900- 9.2
• RB Derrick Henry, BAL, $9,200- 14.2
• WR A.J. Brown, PHI, $9,000- 10.9
• WR Tyreek Hill, MIA, $7,600- 10.2
• WR Trey Palmer, TB, $4,000- 3.7
• TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF, $4,000- 11.1
• Flex RB Javonte Williams, DEN, $6,000- 7.2
• TD Miami $3,400- 0.0

Injuries Create Opportunity:

• Tee Higgins is doubtful this week for Cincinnati. This is a tough call, as Ja’Marr Chase is likely going to garner interest once again, and the same stat that applied this week applies once again here. Ja’Marr Chase has not topped 100 yards in his last six games with Tee Higgins out of the lineup and is averaging just 43.8 yards per game after his 54 yard performance last week. At $9,500, he’s a complete fade this week even if the upside is going to be there going up against Las Vegas.
• Zack Moss is doubtful this week. Chase Brown is one of the top running back options this week at $6,300.
• DK Metcalf will miss this week with a knee injury as will Noah Fant leaving the Seahawks thin this week against Atlanta. All of the Seahawks are underpriced this week and could be interesting as Jaxon Smith-Njigba is just $6,500, while Tyler Lockett is priced down at $6,200. Jake Bobo is getting some interest as he’s $4,300, but even with Metcalf out last week had just one target. Smith-Njigba seems to be the top option this week if you wanted to play a Seahawk.
• The Panthers are a mess. They are starting Bryce Young even though Andy Dalton will be back this week. They’ve traded Diontae Johnson and Adam Thielen remains out. None of the options are cheap enough in Carolina, as we would need a minimum-priced player to even consider someone from that offense.
• A big injury situation is Tony Pollard this week. He did not practice this week with a foot injury. With Tyjae Spears already ruled out, the Titans would be looking at Julius Chestnut as their only running back option this week. At $4,500 in a favorable matchup against New England would be a strong play. Calvin Ridley would also get a massive upgrade with no Pollard.

Week 9 Thoughts- High Scoring Week

This is as good of a week as we’ve had all season. There are nine teams that have a team total projection of 25 points or higher which on a 13-game slate is going to create numerous options and lineup differentiations that we haven’t had for most of the season. At the wide receiver position in particular, there are as many as 15 different players who realistically could be in lineups this week.

The key to this week however is going to be the tight end position. This is a week where you’re likely going to want to go with a balanced lineup in order to fit one of the better tight ends in this week. There is a massive fall off once you get under the $6k mark at the tight end position. Once you get below Kyle Pitts at $6k, you’re looking at players who lack the ceiling game that we saw from so many tight ends last week.