Cracking FanDuel Week 6

Sunday Morning Update

Update #1 Saturday 7PM EST

Jakobi Meyers has been ruled out for this week. This vaults Brock Bowers over Ferguson as the number one tight end on this slate.

Brian Robinson Jr has also been ruled out this week. Austin Ekeler is a strong cash game play this week, and likely ranks above Antonio Gibson as the Commanders are going to need to go with a pass heavy approach. 

Updated Primary Cash Lineup Below: 

Projected points 133.2 

• QB Jalen Hurts, PHI, $8,300
• RB Derrick Henry, BAL, $9,100
• RB Bucky Irving, TB, $5,700
• WR Drake London, ATL, $7,400
• WR DeVonta Smith, PHI, $7,300
• WR Darius Slayton, NYG, $5,900
• TE Brc
• Flex RB Austin Ekeler, WAS, $5,700
• TD Tampa Bay, $3,700

SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.

• Baltimore (vs WAS) – 29.5 points
• Detroit (at DAL) – 28.0 points
• Green Bay (vs ARI) – 27.25 points
• Atlanta (at CAR) – 27.0 points
• Philadelphia (vs CLE) – 26.0 points

Week 5 Recap

The strong season continues, as Week 5 was another winning week for the Cracking FanDuel article pushing it up to 4-1 on the season. This season has been weird, as the Primary Cash Lineup has been able to overcome several weeks of not having the “must-own” player who had a huge game. Last week was Lamar Jackson who had 36 FanDuel points and was 40% rostered. This was a bit of a fluke week, as any week that you can win primarily because of your defense and tight end you take it and move on.

Total points scored- 116.86

• QB Brock Purdy, SF, $7,700-15.06
• RB Najee Harris, PIT, $6,500-8.7
• RB Kyren Williams, LAR, $8,400-18.0
• WR Jayden Reed, GB, $7,200-11.7
• WR Michael Pittman Jr., IND, $6,100-12.2
• WR George Pickens, PIT, $6,000-4.3
• TE Tucker Kraft, GB, $5,300-22.8
• Flex RB Jordan Mason, SF, $8,700-8.3
• TD Denver, $4,000-16.0

What went right:

• Tucker Kraft scoring 22.8 is just lucky. Anytime you punt at tight end for $5,300, you’re just hoping that they score the end-zone. For Kraft, he ended up with 88 yards and 2 touchdowns.
• Denver’s defense ended up being the critical play last week, as they scored 16 points compared to a lot of other team’s going with Carolina who had negative points for the week.

What went wrong:

• Brock Purdy was disappointing at $7,700. For Purdy, he just seemed out of synch as he only threw one touchdown, while throwing two interceptions which was very uncharacteristic in the 49ers’ loss.
• George Pickens was a high-risk play that didn’t end up working out in Week 6. The Steelers couldn’t get much of a passing threat going as Justin Fields threw for just 131 yards against Dallas.

Injuries Create Opportunity:

• Derek Carr is out this week. Spencer Rattler will get the start. Rattler at $6k is a player who seems too much of a risk for a player. Rattler has upside, as he has amongst the best arm talent in this draft class, but his decision making at times has been questionable dating back to his time at South Carolina and Oklahoma. Expect a lot of check-downs to Alvin Kamara and him staring down Chris Olave this week.
• Davante Adams is once again out this week. The Raiders will start Aidan O’Connell as well as they’re making a change away from Gardner Minshew II. Last week in relief we saw O’Connell lock on to Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers. No other player in Las Vegas should be in consideration, as Meyers/Bowers should get 70% of the targets this week.
• Anthony Richardson looks like he is going to return this week. While Richardson has upside and is affordable, it’s hard to know whether he’s 100% and will be running at his normal pace. If you want to take a chance on the player, he’s a high-upside GPP-type guy who could pay off. However, from a receiver standpoint, this kills any of the receiver's value that are on the Colts even with Michael Pittman Jr out. It’s just difficult to trust the passing upside of Richardson.
• Malik Nabers will miss this week once again with a concussion. Both Darius Slayton and Wan’Dale Robinson are strong cash consideration plays this week. Slayton saw a significant uptick in usage last week catching 8 passes for 122 yards and a touchdown.
• Rachaad White is doubtful this week. With White being out, this will be Bucky Irving’s opportunity for the rookie to show he can be a primary running back.
• Rhamondre Stevenson is unlikely to play this week. Antonio Gibson will get the start, but how much of an increase in volume he will see remains to be seen. His price is a great one this week and could be a high-risk value play.
• Zamir White hasn’t practiced this week and looks like he will miss. The matchup is a difficult one for Alexander Mattison this week, but could be a nice pivot away from Antonio Gibson as Mattison should have a more guaranteed role.

Week 6 Strategy- Tight Pricing

Pricing is extremely tight this week. This is as tight as we’ve seen in several seasons. The injuries that we have this week are guys that are in bad offenses that make you feel uncomfortable this week. The issue that you’re going to need to take some players that you’re uncomfortable playing. Lamar Jackson at $9,500 is basically unattainable, so the question that you have to ask yourself is whether you can afford any of the high-end $9k+ range. Of those players, Derrick Henry is the only player that I would consider this week as the receivers are too risky in Lamb/Chase/St. Brown as there are lower-end receivers who have upside this week.

What this is going to do is aggregate the roster builds to very similar places similar to what we saw early on in the season. Expect roster builds with a significant amount of Bucky Irving, Antonio Gibson, and Darius Slayton as those three seem to be far and away the best values at the running back and wide receiver positions. These types of weeks are difficult as every roster decision is critical into the success of a given week.

How I’m approaching this week, is creating differentiation through Derrick Henry, and taking a chance with DeVonta Smith who should be under-owned compared to a player such as Drake London. I believe a lot of people are going to go in a different direction than Henry this week, either paying up for Lamar Jackson or going with Saquon Barkley. Henry was the top guy on my board heading into this week against this abysmal Washington defense, and I hope that getting some differentiation will help this lineup get to a winning week.

Player Pool

LINEUPS

SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 133.2)

• QB Jalen Hurts, PHI, $8,300
• RB Derrick Henry, BAL, $9,100
• RB Bucky Irving, TB, $5,700
• WR Drake London, ATL, $7,400
• WR DeVonta Smith, $7,300
• WR Jakobi Meyers, LV, $5,700
• TE Jake Ferguson, DAL, $6,100
• Flex RB JK Dobbins, LAC, $6,700
• TD Tampa Bay, $3,700

SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – Cash Plus Lineup FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 130.9)

A cash-plus lineup is designed to be used in something like a 100-player or less contest where 20-30% of the prize pool cashes. These can also be used for 3-person or 5-person contests where the top person wins. Often these will have a heavier emphasis on stacking built into them, but not factoring in roster percentages compared to a true GPP lineup which may avoid some of the higher projected rostered players.

• QB Jalen Hurts, PHI, $8,300
• RB Derrick Henry, BAL, $9,100
• RB Bucky Irving, TB, $5,700
• WR Drake London, ATL, $7,400
• WR Amari Cooper, CLE, $6,200
• WR Darius Slayton, NYG, $5,900
• TE Jake Ferguson, DAL, $6,100
• Flex RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR, $7,400
• TD Tampa Bay, $3,700

SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – GPP Lineup (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 129.9)

A GPP lineup is often going to avoid some of the higher-rostered players and try to create stacks or game stacks that could pay off. This often is a riskier approach and is more designed to help you understand the philosophy rather than a direct copy of the lineup. We have a GPP article written by Dan Hindery that I highly recommend if you’re looking for GPP guidance.

• QB Dak Prescott, DAL, $8,000
• RB Antonio Gibson, NE, $5,500
• RB Bucky Irving, TB, $5,700
• WR Darius Slayton, NYG, $5,900
• WR Amon-Ra St. Brown- $9,000
• WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL, $9,300
• TE Jake Ferguson, DAL, $6,100
• Flex RB JK Dobbins, LAC, $6,700
• TD Tampa Bay, $3,700

Player Chart Coming Soon