Sunday Morning Update
Update #2 Sunday 10:30AM EST
Small change to the Primary Cash Lineup this week. I'm going with Tyrone Tracy Jr. over Austin Ekeler. This one is close as they're projected within a point of each other for me this week, and I actually have Ekeler just slightly ahead.
However, two reasons to make the change.
1) Tracy feels slightly safer when it comes to certainty of touches. He had 19 touches last week, and we just don't know how Brian Robinson Jr's injury will impact this game as the Commanders could involve Chris Rodriguez Jr. and Jeremy McNichols.
2) It gives you a little more lineup flexibility throughout the day by having that player that is going to play at the night slot, where if you do need to late swap, you can more easily do so. Be sure to play Tracy in the Flex position with the other two running backs in the RB slot.
Primary Cash lineup:
- QB Jalen Hurts, PHI, $8,300
- RB Derrick Henry, BAL, $9,100
- RB Bucky Irving, TB, $5,700
- WR Drake London, ATL, $7,400
- WR DeVonta Smith, PHI, $7,300
- WR Darius Slayton, NYG, $5,900
- TE Brock Bowers, LV, $6,700
- Flex RB Tyrone Tracy Jr., NYG, $5,800
- TD Tampa Bay, $3,700
Update #1 Saturday 7PM EST
Jakobi Meyers has been ruled out for this week. This vaults Brock Bowers over Ferguson as the number one tight end on this slate.
Brian Robinson Jr has also been ruled out this week. Austin Ekeler is a strong cash game play this week, and likely ranks above Antonio Gibson as the Commanders are going to need to go with a pass heavy approach.
Updated Primary Cash Lineup Below:
Projected points 133.2
- QB Jalen Hurts, PHI, $8,300
- RB Derrick Henry, BAL, $9,100
- RB Bucky Irving, TB, $5,700
- WR Drake London, ATL, $7,400
- WR DeVonta Smith, PHI, $7,300
- WR Darius Slayton, NYG, $5,900
- TE Brock Bowers, LV, $6,700
- Flex RB Austin Ekeler, WAS, $5,700
- TD Tampa Bay, $3,700
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
- Baltimore (vs WAS) – 29.5 points
- Detroit (at DAL) – 28.0 points
- Green Bay (vs ARI) – 27.25 points
- Atlanta (at CAR) – 27.0 points
- Philadelphia (vs CLE) – 26.0 points
Week 5 Recap
The strong season continues, as Week 5 was another winning week for the Cracking FanDuel article pushing it up to 4-1 on the season. This season has been weird, as the Primary Cash Lineup has been able to overcome several weeks of not having the “must-own” player who had a huge game. Last week was Lamar Jackson who had 36 FanDuel points and was 40% rostered. This was a bit of a fluke week, as any week that you can win primarily because of your defense and tight end you take it and move on.
Total points scored- 116.86
- QB Brock Purdy, SF, $7,700-15.06
- RB Najee Harris, PIT, $6,500-8.7
- RB Kyren Williams, LAR, $8,400-18.0
- WR Jayden Reed, GB, $7,200-11.7
- WR Michael Pittman Jr., IND, $6,100-12.2
- WR George Pickens, PIT, $6,000-4.3
- TE Tucker Kraft, GB, $5,300-22.8
- Flex RB Jordan Mason, SF, $8,700-8.3
- TD Denver, $4,000-16.0
What went right:
- Tucker Kraft scoring 22.8 is just lucky. Anytime you punt at tight end for $5,300, you’re just hoping that they score the end-zone. For Kraft, he ended up with 88 yards and 2 touchdowns.
- Denver’s defense ended up being the critical play last week, as they scored 16 points compared to a lot of other team’s going with Carolina who had negative points for the week.
What went wrong:
- Brock Purdy was disappointing at $7,700. For Purdy, he just seemed out of synch as he only threw one touchdown, while throwing two interceptions which was very uncharacteristic in the 49ers’ loss.
- George Pickens was a high-risk play that didn’t end up working out in Week 6. The Steelers couldn’t get much of a passing threat going as Justin Fields threw for just 131 yards against Dallas.
Injuries Create Opportunity:
- Derek Carr is out this week. Spencer Rattler will get the start. Rattler at $6k is a player who seems too much of a risk for a player. Rattler has upside, as he has amongst the best arm talent in this draft class, but his decision making at times has been questionable dating back to his time at South Carolina and Oklahoma. Expect a lot of check-downs to Alvin Kamara and him staring down Chris Olave this week.
- Davante Adams is once again out this week. The Raiders will start Aidan O’Connell as well as they’re making a change away from Gardner Minshew II. Last week in relief we saw O’Connell lock on to Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers. No other player in Las Vegas should be in consideration, as Meyers/Bowers should get 70% of the targets this week.
- Anthony Richardson looks like he is going to return this week. While Richardson has upside and is affordable, it’s hard to know whether he’s 100% and will be running at his normal pace. If you want to take a chance on the player, he’s a high-upside GPP-type guy who could pay off. However, from a receiver standpoint, this kills any of the receiver's value that are on the Colts even with Michael Pittman Jr out. It’s just difficult to trust the passing upside of Richardson.
- Malik Nabers will miss this week once again with a concussion. Both Darius Slayton and Wan’Dale Robinson are strong cash consideration plays this week. Slayton saw a significant uptick in usage last week catching 8 passes for 122 yards and a touchdown.
- Rachaad White is doubtful this week. With White being out, this will be Bucky Irving’s opportunity for the rookie to show he can be a primary running back.
- Rhamondre Stevenson is unlikely to play this week. Antonio Gibson will get the start, but how much of an increase in volume he will see remains to be seen. His price is a great one this week and could be a high-risk value play.
- Zamir White hasn’t practiced this week and looks like he will miss. The matchup is a difficult one for Alexander Mattison this week, but could be a nice pivot away from Antonio Gibson as Mattison should have a more guaranteed role.
Week 6 Strategy- Tight Pricing
Pricing is extremely tight this week. This is as tight as we’ve seen in several seasons. The injuries that we have this week are guys that are in bad offenses that make you feel uncomfortable this week. The issue that you’re going to need to take some players that you’re uncomfortable playing. Lamar Jackson at $9,500 is basically unattainable, so the question that you have to ask yourself is whether you can afford any of the high-end $9k+ range. Of those players, Derrick Henry is the only player that I would consider this week as the receivers are too risky in Lamb/Chase/St. Brown as there are lower-end receivers who have upside this week.
What this is going to do is aggregate the roster builds to very similar places similar to what we saw early on in the season. Expect roster builds with a significant amount of Bucky Irving, Antonio Gibson, and Darius Slayton as those three seem to be far and away the best values at the running back and wide receiver positions. These types of weeks are difficult as every roster decision is critical into the success of a given week.
How I’m approaching this week, is creating differentiation through Derrick Henry, and taking a chance with DeVonta Smith who should be under-owned compared to a player such as Drake London. I believe a lot of people are going to go in a different direction than Henry this week, either paying up for Lamar Jackson or going with Saquon Barkley. Henry was the top guy on my board heading into this week against this abysmal Washington defense, and I hope that getting some differentiation will help this lineup get to a winning week.
Player Pool
| Quarterback | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Jalen Hurts | 23.67 | $8,300 | Cleveland is quickly going into "quit watch" where the team seems to be on the verge of starting to quit on their head coach Kevin Stefanski and this ownership group that continue to do the exact same thing expecting different results. For the Eagles this week, they will have both DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown back this week after not having them prior to the bye week. With Hurts, he's underpriced at $8,300 compared to some of the higher-end quarterbacks Jayden Daniels or Lamar Jackson who is overpriced this week at $9,500. The Browns are 1-4, and the two playoff contenders that they've faced have put up 33 and 34 points against them. To get an Eagles team that is better than both Washington and Dallas offensively, that's going to vault you to the top of the board this week. |
| 2 | Dak Prescott | 20.85 | $8,000 | This one should be relatively obvious, but this Detroit vs Dallas game has the potential to be a back and forth shootout. Detroit boasts one of the league's best run defenses and one of the league's worst pass defenses, which should be to the advantage of the Cowboys this week and getting their passing attack back on track. CeeDee Lamb's season is very similar to his 2023 season where he got off to a very slow start only to become one of the best receivers in football by the end of the year. It's difficult to project that this will happen again, but with the shorter preseasons inw hich almost no players play any level of meaningful snaps, some players are just going to start slower than others. Prescott has thrown for 290 yards or more this season three times while throwing for 2 touchdowns in three consecutive games. While he does not provide any rushing upside any longer, he's still a player who can be one of the elite pass throwers in the NFL in a favorable matchup. |
| 3 | Jayden Daniels | 22.58 | $8,700 | People are not going to want to play a rookie quarterback on the road against Baltimore. However, this is not your traditional Baltimore defense that we've seen over the last two decades. This is a flawed secondary that is allowing the most passing yards in the NFL in 2024, and are coming off of a 392 yard 5 touchdown performance from Joe Burrow. The Ravens have allowed four of the five quarterbacks they've faced to top 275 yards or more. Now, the counter-point to that, is that they've faced one of the most difficult schedules in the NFL this season as they've already faced Patrick Mahomes II, Dak Prescott, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow, which is why Daniels is number three instead of number one this week. Gardner Minshew II did throw for 276 yards against this team as the Raiders upset the Ravens back in Week 2. |
| Running Back | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Bucky Irving | 14.09 | 5700 | With Rachaad White doubtful this week, expect a heavy usage from the rookie from Oregon. Bucky Irving has been great in the complimentary role for the Buccaneers so far this season as he's averaging 5.6 yards-per-carry on the season and averaging 2 receptions per game over the last three weeks. With Rachaad White out, the only question for Irving will be what percentage of the backfield carries will he be able to manage as White has been on the field between 60-70% of the plays, with Irving on the field about 40% of the snaps. Behind Irving is Sean Tucker who has not shown that he can be an NFL running back as the team utilizes him primarily as a special teams player as he only has two carries on the season. The matchup should be a good one for Irving as historically going on the road to New Orleans would be a difficult play, this season has been different as New Orleans has already allowed two 100-yard rushers as Kareem Hunt was able to do this last week against this defense. |
| 2 | Chuba Hubbard | 14.94 | 7400 | Hubbard has been a big reason this article has gotten off to such a strong start this season. Since Andy Dalton took over as the Panthers quarterback, Hubbard has been dominant. Hubbard is fourth in the NFL in FanDuel points amongst running backs since Dalton took over as he is averaging 22.3 points per game, while Hubbard is second in yards since Week 3. At $7,400, he's the 12th-highest priced running back which is simply too cheap. The matchup is a good one this week for Carolina as every running back that Atlanta has faced has 70 rushing yards or more this season. |
| 3 | Antonio Gibson | 13.67 | 5500 | Gibson will be popular this week due to the injury to Rhamondre Stevenson and people looking for salary relief this week. However, there are some things to be concerned about here. Despite being on the field for 47% of the snaps last week, Gibson had just six carries. Gibson is extremely effective as a third-down running and change of pace running back, but how many carries the Patriots will give him in Drake Maye's first start remains an open question. With the Patriots being significant underdogs against Houston this week, there is risk that the team abandons the run and goes with a pass-heavy approach as the Texans have had one of the best run defenses in the NFL under DeMeco Ryans over the last two seasons. If that's the case, there's still a path for Gibson, but it would likely need to be as a receiver. At $5,500 he is cheap, but comes with some risk in Week 6. |
| 4 | Derrick Henry | 18.45 | 9100 | The only question this week is whether you can afford Derrick Henry. After a slow Week 1, Henry has been dominant this season averaging 24.9 FanDuel points per game, 131.5 rushing yards, and 6 touchdowns all which lead the NFL since Week 2. This week, Henry gets to take on a Washington team that is allowing 116 rushing yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry against one of the weakest schedules in the NFL through the first five weeks. They've faced Jerome Ford, James Conner, Zack Moss, Devin Singletary, and Rachaad White and are still allowing a very high-end of success this season. Henry is multiple tiers above all of those player in terms of talent, role, and offensive expectations. Expect Henry to test this defensive line that has major flaws. |
| 5 | Tony Pollard | 15.06 | 7000 | As bad as the Titans offense has been, Tony Pollard has been a bright spot for the Titans. Pollard has 60 yards or more in three of his four games this season, and with the Titans getting Will Levis back this week, it should help his pass-catchingseason scoring ability as he's averaging 3.7 receptions per game with Levis. The matchup is ideal, as he's taking on a Colts defense that is coming off of a 101 yard performance to Tank Bigsby which was the third 100-yard game that the Colts have allowed this season. For the Titans to have a chance in this game, they need to get Pollard going to help out their struggling passing attack. |
| 6 | JK Dobbins | 15.71 | 6700 | This is a risky one, and it sort of depends on how you feel about JK Dobbins as a player. Dobbins has been a complete roller coaster of production as in his four games, he has two games where he had over 130 yards and a touchdown, while his last two games he had less than 50 yards and no touchdown. However, the two most recent games were against Pittsburgh and Kansas City which boast two of the best run defenses in the NFL. Dobbins has solidified himself as the number one running back in Los Angeles as he's seeing about 75% of the snaps in most recent weeks after more of a 60/40 split early on. He also provides some nice pass-catching upside with three receptions in three of his four games this season. Denver's run defense has not been great this season outside of a 10 carry 4 yard performance against Breece Hall that admittedly has me thinking they're a better defense than they actually are. Dobbins should be in a great spot this week coming off of a bye. |
| Wide Receiver | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | DeVonta Smith | 13.19 | 7,300 | In his three games this season, Smith has 8, 10, and 10 targets. With Denzel Ward questionable this week, but seems more doubtful than questionable as he did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday and was just a limited participant on Friday. With no Ward, this secondary is an absolute disaster. Martin Emerson Jr who is the number two corner opposite of Denzel Ward has been the worst cornerback in football this season, while Mike Ford Jr. and Cameron Mitchell as backups inspire no confidence in this defense. The Browns are also without their top 3 safeties this week. For Smith, a deep play would not be surprising at all this week. At just $7,300 he has tremendous upside. |
| 2 | Terry McLaurin | 12.36 | 6800 | This is risky, but with Baltimore's defense the Commanders are going to need to throw the ball in order to have success this week. Last week, we saw Ja'Marr Chase torch this defense for 10 receptions for 193 yards and 2 touchdowns while Davante Adams and Rashee Rice both topped 100 earlier this season. For McLaurin, we're starting to see the chemistry build between he and Jayden Daniels as McLaurin has 100 yards in two of his last three games. |
| 3 | Drake London | 15.25 | 7,400 | Projection models are completely broken after Atlanta's 509 yard509-yard 4 touchdown performance from Kirk Cousins last week. Drake London had 12 receptions for 154 yards and a touchdown in that game. London has 50 yards or more in each of his last four games, and is taking on a Panthers defense that showed last week that the honeymoon period with Kirk Cousins at quarterback has worn off as they allowed Caleb Williams to throw for 304 yards and 2 touchdowns last week. |
| 4 | Darius Slayton | 12.79 | 5,900 | With no Malik Nabers, expect one of these Giants receivers to be a key this week to having success in cash games. Of Darius Slayton and Wan'Dale Robinson, Robinson feels safer, but Slayton showed last week that he has far more upside. Slayton had 11 targets caught 8 passes for 122 yards and a touchdown. This week, the Giants get the Bengals defense who have allowed 75 yards or more to a receiver in each of their last four games. With the Bengals offense peaking, this could be a game where the Giants are forced to throw the ball heavily to keep up. |
| 5 | Jakobi Meyers | 10.86 | 5,700 | Meyers has been good, not great since Davante Adams has been out the last two games. However, with Aidan O'Connell starting this week, we saw upside from Meyers as O'Connell targeted him frequently coming into the game in relief last week. Meyers ended with 9 targets in that game as O'Connell primarily targeted just Meyers and Brock Bowers. The matchup against Pittsburgh is not ideal, but they have struggled the last two weeks allowing 113 yards to Michael Pittman Jr, and 87 yards with a touchdown last week to Jalen Tolbert. Joey Porter Jr.. has struggled this after a strong rookie season. |
| 6 | Wan'Dale Robinson | 12.8 | 6,300 | With no Malik Nabers, Wan'Dale Robinson should once again be a great cash game play simply because the Giants have no one else to throw the ball to. Robinson has 8 or more targets in five of his six games this season including averaging 11.5 targets per game since Malik Nabers was injured. There are some issues here, as at 5'8'' 165 pounds his upside is somewhat limited being a possession receiver, but his floor is high simply because of the number of targets he sees and not a lot of receivers in the low 6k price range this week. |
| 7 | Tank Dell | 11.82 | 6,700 | At some point, Tank Dell is going to have a breakout performance. So far through four games, Dell has been unable to build off of the 2023 breakout season that was cut short due to injury. Dell has averaged just 34.25 yards, but with Nico Collins placed on injured reserve, it's going to be Dell and Stefon Diggs who are going to need to step up in the absence of Collins who was emerging as the league's best receiver. Diggs at $8,000 is too expensive this week, so looking to Dell could be a way to get a piece of this Texans offense this week. |
| 8 | Chris Olave | 9.93 | 7,100 | Olave is a sneaky player this week that almost no one is going to be on. With Derek Carr out with an injury, the Saints were unable to move the ball last week as Jake Haener struggled to throw the ball. Now, the Saints are starting Spencer Rattler, who has flaws, but is a gunslinger dating back to his time at South Carolina and Oklahoma. The thinking here is that this is an ideal matchup for a rookie to make his first start. Tampa Bay was obliterated by Kirk Cousins last week as they allowed 509 yards and 4 touchdowns. We could see Rattler lock onto Olave and target him frequently giving him a chance for 50/50 balls. |
| Tight End | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Jake Ferguson | 11.46 | 6,100 | Seems ideal to have a piece of this Detroit vs Dallas game in what should be the highest-scoring game of the week. Ferguson after a slow start to the season has 70 yards or more in two of his last three games. While he han't scored a touchdown, he's a player who had 29 red zone targets last season compared to just one thus far this year. Those targets almost certainly will increase as the Cowboys have only targeted receivers and tight ends a total of 15 times this season. Detroit did shut down Trey McBride in Week 3 holding the tight end to just 25 yards, so if there's concern it would be that this defense with an elite pass rush is difficult to deal with. |
| 2 | Brock Bowers | 11.48 | 6,700 | Bowers was dominant last week as he had 12 targets catching 8 passes for 97 yards and a touchdown. While he should once again be a great play with Aidan O'Connell starting for Las Vegas, there are some concerns here. With his price increased to $6,700, Bowers may be asked to help chip block T.J. Watt with the Raiders having major issues at right tackle with Thayer Munford. |
| Team Defense | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 10.39 | 3,700 | Defense is abysmal this week. This seems like a spot to take a defense against a rookie making his first start. Rattler is a gunslinger throwing 8 interceptions and sacked 40 times last season. |
| 2 | Philadelphia Eagles | 11.6 | 4,800 | If you somehow find yourself with extra salary this week, just take the Eagles taking on this Cleveland offense which seems to be a trend of this article. |
LINEUPS
SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 133.2)
- QB Jalen Hurts, PHI, $8,300
- RB Derrick Henry, BAL, $9,100
- RB Bucky Irving, TB, $5,700
- WR Drake London, ATL, $7,400
- WR DeVonta Smith, $7,300
- WR Jakobi Meyers, LV, $5,700
- TE Jake Ferguson, DAL, $6,100
- Flex RB JK Dobbins, LAC, $6,700
- TD Tampa Bay, $3,700
SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – Cash Plus Lineup FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 130.9)
A cash-plus lineup is designed to be used in something like a 100-player or less contest where 20-30% of the prize pool cashes. These can also be used for 3-person or 5-person contests where the top person wins. Often these will have a heavier emphasis on stacking built into them, but not factoring in roster percentages compared to a true GPP lineup which may avoid some of the higher projected rostered players.
- QB Jalen Hurts, PHI, $8,300
- RB Derrick Henry, BAL, $9,100
- RB Bucky Irving, TB, $5,700
- WR Drake London, ATL, $7,400
- WR Amari Cooper, CLE, $6,200
- WR Darius Slayton, NYG, $5,900
- TE Jake Ferguson, DAL, $6,100
- Flex RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR, $7,400
- TD Tampa Bay, $3,700
SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – GPP Lineup (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 129.9)
A GPP lineup is often going to avoid some of the higher-rostered players and try to create stacks or game stacks that could pay off. This often is a riskier approach and is more designed to help you understand the philosophy rather than a direct copy of the lineup. We have a GPP article written by Dan Hindery that I highly recommend if you’re looking for GPP guidance.
- QB Dak Prescott, DAL, $8,000
- RB Antonio Gibson, NE, $5,500
- RB Bucky Irving, TB, $5,700
- WR Darius Slayton, NYG, $5,900
- WR Amon-Ra St. Brown- $9,000
- WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL, $9,300
- TE Jake Ferguson, DAL, $6,100
- Flex RB JK Dobbins, LAC, $6,700
- TD Tampa Bay, $3,700
Player Chart Coming Soon
Photos provided by Imagn Images
