Cracking FanDuel Week 1

Photo: USA Today Sports

Sunday Morning Update

Justin Fields is projected to start for Pittsburgh this week. Fields is certainly in play this week, but I still have Jayden Daniels slightly higher than Fields.

This is assuming Ja'Marr Chase is active, as I will be at the Bears Titans game this morning. If Chase were to be inactive, I would  

No change to the Primary Cash Lineup this week. 

• QB Jayden Daniels- WAS $7,000
• RB Aaron Jones, MIN, $6,800
• RB Jerome Ford, CLE, $6,200
• WR Tyreek Hill, MIA, $9,600
• WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL, $9,300
• WR Demario Douglas, NE, $4,000
• TE Trey McBride, ARI, $6,400
• Flex RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $7,100
• TD Atlanta Falcons, $3,600

Lineup if Chase is Inactive

• QB Jayden Daniels- WAS $7,000
• RB Aaron Jones, MIN, $6,800
• RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR, $5,600
• WR Tyreek Hill, MIA, $9,600
• WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL, $9,300
• WR Andre Iosivas, CIN, $4,300
• TE Trey McBride, ARI, $6,400
• Flex RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $7,100
• TD Atlanta Falcons, $3,600

2023 Recap

2023 was one of the most profitable years of this article for the Primary Cash Lineup. We took an approach of prioritizing mobile quarterbacks and taking a stars and scrubs approach for most of the year avoiding a lot of the middle $7k-$8.5k range instead of focusing on the elite players and the value players who are sub $7k. Each year is different though, which is why Week 1 is so difficult, as we don’t have any film on this year’s role for each team.

Cash Game Strategy- Week 1 Tip

I’ve used the same Week 1 messaging tip for the last several years. While I hate re-using content as it seems lazy, this one is incredibly important, especially for new people that I need to continue to use it as the Week 1 tip. So, apologies if you’ve read this before, but it is a good reminder of how we are going to approach this season. We have been doing this article now for 9 years back when it was just on a blog and would start the season the same way.

While head-to-head remains my preferred game style, and I believe it can be extremely profitable, it has become much harder. This is due to a couple of factors. First and foremost, the amount of “new” or “inexperienced” DFS players has died off, as DFS is now a good 6+ years away from its peak. While the game is certainly healthy and not going anywhere, we no longer have as many casual fans consistently playing cash games as we did back then. Those players have either mostly left, finding an inability to win, or they are just taking their lottery ticket every week in large field GPP’s. So, the margins have gotten tighter.

There are still diehards that just have bad processes that are out there, and diversifying amongst them in head-to-head contests is still very much doable. However, it does take a lot of work to find those games consistently checking at weird times to find a name that you don’t recognize.

With all of that said, if you want to play 50/50’s, make sure you’re playing the single entry 50/50’s, but this can be a way to simplify your life and if you are smart about it, even make it somewhat easier to win. The head-to-head strategy can backfire if not done properly as you could actually find yourself facing off against some of the best sharks in the DFS industry, and they’re reading a lot of this article as well as other sources to come up with their lineup. That’s certainly not what we want. In the 50/50’s the hope is that there are a couple of people who try to get cute, or accidentally put their GPP lineup into a 50/50. This can give you a slightly greater than 50% chance of cashing in a given week. However, I can not repeat this enough, do not play any 50/50 or double up that you can enter multiple times as these will be heavily skewed towards the sharks.

Game Selection- Head to Head over 50/50’s?

If you’ve been a reader of this article for the last several years, you know how this tip goes, but it is an important one to touch on each and every Week 1, as far too often we see multi-entry 50/50 cut lines are higher than even the minimum cash lines for GPP’s. The real benefit of head to heads is bankroll management. Most 50/50 or double up contests especially the big one’s are going to have a similar cash line across the board. What this ultimately means is that your lineup is either going to win everything or lose everything, so if you are in the 49^th percentile of lineups you will lose 100% of your entries for those contests. Conversely if you have a large enough sample size on head to heads you will only lose maybe 5-10% of your bankroll. From a sample size standpoint, my recommendation is to have at least 10-20 head to heads even if that means you’re playing $1 games.

If you are going to do anything to help your ROI this year, start tracking your opponents. Create a spreadsheet or a piece of paper and really evaluate the rosters of the people that you are facing. The one piece of advice is that people do not spend enough time evaluating who they are facing, but instead just blindly enter contests. The one thing is that don’t just look at the amount of points your opponent scores, but instead look at the roster construction. If it is a solid construction you may not want to play that opponent each week and have to rely on a coin flip. Instead, try to find people who build fundamentally different rosters than you, maybe someone who makes mistakes and doesn’t play the top owned players.

If you blindly enter head to heads, or do not want to have a large enough sample size, the next best contest is to find the biggest single entry 50/50.

Single Entry GPP’s

An underutilized contest that does not get talked about nearly enough are the Single Entry GPP’s. These typically have a lower cash line than even 50/50’s, so if you are against playing Head-to-Heads, take a look at these contests. There are far too many people who treat them similarly to a big GPP and have lineups that have crazy stacks and off the wall plays that in a Single-Entry contest there is simply no need to do. We will be continuing to monitor these contests this year to see if there is an edge and see how they compare to the 50/50’s and double ups as we look to help build your bankroll.

Injuries Create Opportunity:

This is a strange Week 1. Normally, we have injuries that are causing opportunities to arise given how early the slates are released. This week, we really don’t have much of anything as almost everyone is healthy.

Kyle Pitts is dealing with a hamstring injury. He was a full participant on Thursday, so it would be quite a shock if he was unable to play on Sunday.

Josh Downs seems unlikely to play from Indianapolis. He did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday because he’s dealing with an ankle sprain. This could make Adonai Mitchell more playable, but at $5,500, he’s likely a GPP play only.

Tommy Tremble and Ian Thomas both seem unlikely to play for Carolina. The Panthers have 4^th-round rookie Ja’Tavion Sanders and former wide receiver Jordan Matthews who has not played since 2019 as their only two tight ends on this roster. It’s unlikely that either player is fantasy-relevant, but it could make Diontae Johnson an intriguing play on safe underneath routes.

Tee Higgins has been downgraded to doubtful, while Ja’Marr Chase has some weird vibes going on around him almost as it seems as if he doesn’t know what he’s going to do. He is saying he’s likely going to play, but could be limited. This should be an upgrade to Chase, but Andre Iosivas could be the real beneficiary here. At just $4,300 Iosivas’ bar for hitting value is very low and opens up significant opportunities for the rest of your roster. He’s one of a couple of value receivers that could pay off.

Week 1 Strategy

Week 1 is always a difficult week, as we have created illusions of what will happen for months now based on the offseason. However, there are so much data that is largely just meaningless once the games get started. With teams not playing starters in preseason, we know as little as we ever have in Week 1. The key is to not overthink it. We think we have an idea of which defenses are going to be great, but year-to-year there are always teams that have high expectations that struggle, and teams with low expectations that far exceed them.

It’s a similar message every year. The key to Week 1 is to just not overthink it. Let other people make mistakes by taking the hot rookie or breakout player. Someone like De’Von Achane is likely going to be popular at $7,200, but we don’t know what his role is going to be and he banked on a 7.8 yards per carry last season to propel him to having such great success. That’s obviously not sustainable, at least for a cash game format. We need to see more consistent touches from running backs in order to trust them. The only way you should be taking a player who has an unclear role is when they’re so incredibly cheap that it allows you to get a superstar player.

One strategic item to factor in your lineups is that FanDuel has changed their scoring to include a 3-point bonus for 300-yard passing, 100-yard rushing, and 100-yard receiving. This is interesting especially at the quarterback and wide receiver positions as it certainly can lead to more of a star/scrub format especially given that overall scoring on FanDuel is lower due to the half-point PPR. This week, considering two of the high-end wide receivers is almost certainly going to be a popular strategy.

Cash Game Core Plays

LINEUPS

SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 126.3)

• QB Jayden Daniels- WAS $7,000
• RB Aaron Jones, MIN, $6,800
• RB Jerome Ford, CLE, $6,200
• WR Tyreek Hill, MIA, $9,600
• WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL, $9,300
• WR Demario Douglas, NE, $4,000
• TE Trey McBride, ARI, $6,400
• Flex RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $7,100
• TD Atlanta Falcons, $3,600

SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – Cash Plus Lineup FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 125.4)

A cash plus lineup is one that is designed to be used in something like a 100 player or less contest where 20-30% of the prize pool cashes. These can also be used for 3-person or 5-person contests where the top person wins. Often these will have a heavier emphasis on stacking built into them, but not factoring in roster percentages compared to a true GPP lineup which may avoid some of the higher projected rostered players.

• QB Jayden Daniels- WAS $7,000
• RB Aaron Jones, MIN, $6,800
• RB Jerome Ford, CLE, $6,200
• WR Tyreek Hill, MIA, $9,600
• WR Cooper Kupp, LAR, $7,000
• WR Terry McLaurin, WAS $6,200
• TE Trey McBride, ARI, $6,400
• Flex RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $7,100
• TD Atlanta Falcons, $3,600

SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – GPP Lineup (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 121.2)

A GPP lineup is often going to avoid some of the more higher rostered players and try to create stacks or game stacks that could pay off. This often is a riskier approach, and is more designed to help you understand the philosophy rather than a direct copy of the lineup. We have a GPP article written by Dan Hindery that I highly recommend if you’re looking for GPP guidance.

• QB Sam Darnold, MIN, $6,700
• RB James Cook, BUF, $7,600
• RB Jerome Ford, CLE, $6,200
• WR Justin Jefferson, MIN, $9,000
• WR Cooper Kupp, LAR, $7,000
• WR Terry McLaurin, WAS $6,200
• TE Trey McBride, ARI, $6,400
• Flex RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $7,100
• TD Atlanta Falcons, $3,600

Player Chart