Thursday Morning Update:

Check back Thursday around 9:00AM EST for any updates to the primary cash lineup.

Thanksgiving Slate Thoughts

First and foremost Happy Thanksgiving to everyone who is reading this. Thanksgiving is always one of the most fun DFS slates out there, and this year is a bit different. We really have three different types of games. The Chicago at Detroit game could turn into a bit of a blowout, the New York at Dallas game is two bad offenses, but two equally bad defenses which could make for some unique opportunities despite only a 37.5 point total. The last game, Miami at Green Bay, should be the best game of the day, but it is two tricky offenses from a DFS perspective combined with two good defenses, especially on the Miami side of things as their pass defense is one of the best in football.

This week is all about finding an anchor around what game scripts that you want to believe in. For example, if you believe the Lions will blowout the Bears, you should stack the Lions, but maybe avoid David Montgomery who is questionable to play this week as it would seem likely that the Lions may pull him early if the game gets out of hand. If Tommy DeVito sits, could you stomach playing Drew Lock at just $6,400. Locke should have some upside in this game, mostly around the fact that Dallas’ defense is horrendous and Lock is almost certainly better than Tommy DeVito.

Finally, in Miami vs Green Bay. Picking the right combination of players from this game, is likely going to be the key this week particularly on the Green Bay side. Josh Jacobs will be popular based on his three-touchdown performance last week, but fading him could give you a leg up on your competition as Jacobs is projected to be rostered in about 50% of lineups tomorrow. The other factor here is the weather. It’s currently projected to be 22 degrees and snowing which for a Miami team going on the road could make for an interestingly difficult situation.

SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.

• Detroit (vs CHI) – 28.5 points
• Green Bay (vs MIA) – 25.5 points

Injuries Create Opportunity:

• Tommy DeVito is questionable this week with a forearm injury. While DeVito isn’t playable, he’s reportedly a “long-shot” to play this week. If DeVito is out, this is an upgrade to the entire passing offense of the Giants. Malik Nabers will see an upgrade, Drew Lock is at least passable as a quarterback if you want to punt the position, and the overall outlook for the Giants increases.
• David Montgomery and Amon-Ra St. Brown are questionable this week, although they appears good to go. If they were to miss, Jahmyr Gibbs (Montgomery) and Jameson Williams/Tim Patrick would both see upgrades.
• Romeo Doubs is out for Green Bay with a concussion. This should primarily be an upgrade to Jayden Reed and Christian Watson, although Tucker Kraft should see an upgrade here as well.
• Jake Ferguson is out again with a concussion. Luke Schoonmaker should be in a great spot this week. The Giants have been good against tight ends as they’ve allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to the position, but they’ve also faced one of the weakest schedules against the position this season.

Thanksgiving Slate Strategy:

Most years, we give the advice not to play cash games on just a three game slate. However, over the nine years that we’ve done this article, there have been seasons where it has been ok to do so. This is one of those years. This year, you’re going to see a heavy trend towards Caleb Williams, Josh Jacobs, and Jayden Reed. These are all players that personally I’m ok with taking my chances against. It’s a week where the popularity of DraftKings mis-priced players seems to be carrying over into FanDuel. For example, Jameson Williams is going completely overlooked on FanDuel as he’s overpriced on DraftKings at $6,100, while Reed is going to be extremely popular on FanDuel where he’s overpriced yet underpriced on DraftKings.