Cracking DraftKings Wild Card Weekend

Wild Card Weekend Games

• Saturday Slate:
  • Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans - Over/Under 42.5 - Spread Chargers -2.5
  • Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens - Over/Under 43.5 - Spread Ravens -9.5
• Sunday Slate:
  • Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills - Over/Under 47.5 - Spread Bills -8.5
  • Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles - Over/Under 45.5 - Spread Eagles -4.5
  • Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Over/Under 50.5 - Spread Buccaneers -3
• Monday Slate:
  • Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams - Over/Under 47.5 - Spread Vikings -1.5

Chargers at Texans

• Chargers:
  • Offensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play: 13th
    • Dropback EPA: 11th
    • Rush EPA: 16th
    • Points per game: 11th (23.6)
    • Yards per game: 20th (324.2)
  • Defensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 15th
    • Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 8th
    • Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 20th
    • Points per game allowed: 1st (17.7)
    • Yards per game allowed: 11th (324.4)
  • Point Differential Ranking: 8th (+101)
• Texans:
  • Offensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play: 17th
    • Dropback EPA: 18th
    • Rush EPA: 23rd
    • Points per game: 19th (21.9)
    • Yards per game: 22nd (319.7)
  • Defensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 3rd
    • Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 3rd
    • Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 7th
    • Points per game allowed: 14th (21.9)
    • Yards per game allowed: 6th (315)
  • Point Differential Ranking: 16th (0)

This game has the lowest Over/Under of the week and features two average offenses compared to the rest of the playoffs. Tread carefully when playing slates that include Sunday and/or Monday games.

Chargers

Justin Herbert ($6,000) finished the season strong throwing for 911 yards and 7 touchdowns over his past three games. The Chargers offense ranks eighth in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF) and 14th in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE). The matchup is tough but Herbert's excellence puts his teammates in play. And his affordable price tag puts him in play as well.

Ladd McConkey ($6,800) dominated on the Chargers seeing 21 more targets, making 27 more grabs, and racking up 438 more receiving yards than any teammate. He finished the year ranked tenth in the NFL in receiving yards (1,149). McConkey is a special talent that creates separation at will. He's a solid one-off play in this game with a palatable price tag.

J.K. Dobbins ($6,200) is Questionable but expected to play and we'll know his status before the playoffs kick-off. He averages in his two games since returning from injury to end the regular season: 20.5 opportunities per game and 79 yards per game. The opportunities average would rank eighth in the NFL if over the full season. Expect the Chargers to ride Dobbins in this one, providing one of the best workload projections of the week. The Chargers are 2.5-point favorites.

Surprisingly, the Chargers' D/ST ($3,200) is just the fourth-highest D/ST on this slate. They're 2.5-point favorites and take on C.J. Stroud who has been sacked the second-most times this season (52).

Texans

C.J. Stroud ($5,500) and the Texans limped to the regular season's finish line, losing their last two games where starters played against playoff teams. The Ravens destroyed them 31-2 just two weeks ago the first game after Tank Dell was lost for the season. Stroud is unfortunately a fade despite his affordable price tag.

We want to lean into what we believe the large sample size of the regular season data shows us as much as we can. One of those major indicators is Joe Mixon ($7,200) is going to touch the ball as much as he can handle in this one. Mixon ranked fourth in opportunities per game (22.4) and ninth in total yards per game (99.8). The Chargers run defense ranked 20th in EPA Allowed from weeks 8-17. Mixon is playing at home.

Nico Collins ($7,800) is a superstar and should be pummeled with targets with Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell no longer by his side in the offense. Collins ranked just 17th in targets per game (8.5) but still managed to rank fourth in receiving yards per game (88). He's a big play waiting to happen at any moment.