Cracking DraftKings: Week 16

Favorite Fantasy Game Environment

• San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins - Over/Under 45.5
• Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders - Over/Under 45.5

Favorite Additional Fantasy Spots

• Bills at home vs Patriots - Implied Team Total 30.5
• Bengals at home vs Browns - Implied Team Total 27
• Lions on road vs Bears - Implied Team Total 27
• Rams on road vs Jets - Implied Team Total 24.8
• Cardinals on road vs Panthers - Implied Team Total 25.5
• Falcons at home vs Giants - Implied Team Total 26

Cash Games

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen has gone absolutely nuclear. Over the past two weeks, Allen has thrown for 704 yards and 5 touchdowns and run for 150 yards and 5 touchdowns. Allen ranks second at the quarterback position in DraftKings points per game (25.8), 13th in passing yards per game (242.5), and seventh in pass touchdowns per game (1.8). Allen leads a Bills offense that leads the NFL in EPA/Play and ranks eighth in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE). He projects to be able to do whatever he wants against an awful Patriots defense that ranks 30th in EPA/Play Allowed and 31st in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Michael Penix Jr. was selected eighth overall and is now the new Falcons starting quarterback. He's at home in a great spot against a banged-up Giants defense that ranks just 27th in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Penix is priced at just $4,500, allowing us to pay down at quarterback this week. And he's surrounded by strong talents Drake London and Bijan Robinson.

Jalen Hurts' rushing touchdowns over his past four seasons: 10, 13, 15, and 14 already this season. Hurts provides a solid floor and ceiling combination that helps in cash. He leads an Eagles offense that ranks seventh-best in EPA/Play.

What an awesome season Sam Darnold is having. He ranks seventh in passing yards per game (252.1) and fourth in pass touchdowns per game (2.1). Darnold leads a Vikings offense that ranks sixth in EPA/Play, sixth in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF), and second in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE). Darnold will have to chuck it as this one won't be a cakewalk on the road against a competitive Seahawks team.

Running Backs

Chase Brown's role is absolutely incredible. In six games since Zack Moss was lost for the season his averages: 25 opportunities (would lead NFL if over the full season) and 121.7 total yards per game (would rank second if over the full season). Brown has scored six touchdowns over this six-game stretch. The Bengals are 7.5-point home favorites and Brown gets a Browns defense that ranks just 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 24th in Rush EPA Allowed.

James Conner ranks 14th in the NFL in opportunities per game (18.9) and ninth in total yards per game (95.3). Conner has been on a tear over the past two weeks. He's totaled 260 total yards and 3 touchdowns over that stretch. The Cardinals are 4.5-point favorites and Conner gets a Panthers defense that ranks dead last in both EPA/Play Allowed and Rush EPA Allowed. Emari Demercado and Trey Benson are both out so Conner's workload projection is even higher than usual as well.

Nick Chubb is out for the year and Jerome Ford just racked up 104 total yards and a touchdown on just nine touches last week. Ford's usage projects to spike this week and he gets to attack a Bengals defense that ranks just 29th in EPA/Play Allowed and 30th in Rush EPA Allowed. Ford is a solid cash play thanks to his affordable $5,600 price tag.

De'Von Achane is at home in a possible shootout against a 49ers defense that ranks just 27th in Rush EPA Allowed. Achane's averages in ten games with Tua Tagovailos this season: 19.2 opportunities per game (would rank tenth if over the full season) and 96.1 total yards per game (would rank ninth if over the full season). Achane has scored ten touchdowns in those ten games.