Cracking DraftKings: Divisional Round

Divisional Round Games

• Saturday Slate:
  • Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs - Over/Under 41.5 - Spread Chiefs -8.5
  • Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions - Over/Under 55.5 - Spread Ravens Lions -9.5
• Sunday Slate:
  • Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles - Over/Under 44.5 - Spread Eagles -6.5
  • Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills - Over/Under 51.5 - Spread Ravens -1.5

Texans at Chiefs

• Texans:
  • Offensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play: 17th
    • Dropback EPA: 18th
    • Rush EPA: 23rd
    • Points per game: 19th (21.9)
    • Yards per game: 22nd (319.7)
  • Defensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 3rd
    • Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 3rd
    • Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 7th
    • Points per game allowed: 14th (21.9)
    • Yards per game allowed: 6th (315)
  • Point Differential Ranking: 16th (0)

• Chiefs:
  • Offensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play: 8th
    • Dropback EPA: 7th
    • Rush EPA: 11th
    • Points per game: 15th (22.6)
    • Yards per game: 16th (327.6)
  • Defensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 12th
    • Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 13th
    • Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 11th
    • Points per game allowed: 4th (19.2)
    • Yards per game allowed: 9th (320.6)
  • Point Differential Ranking: 11th (+59)

Houston Texans

C.J. Stroud ($5,000) is affordable, but don't fall for it. He has a poor offensive line and limited weapons and is playing on the road in a tough spot. He's not even in consideration.

Joe Mixon ($6,500) ranked fourth in opportunities per game (22.4) and ninth in total yards per game (99.8) in the regular season. He turned 26 touches into 119 total yards and 1 touchdown last week in the Wild Card Round. Mixon is a volume play, but don't expect similar success to last week. The Texans are 8.5-point road underdogs and the Chiefs have a solid run defense.

Nico Collins ($7,600) is a superstar and should be pummeled with targets with Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell no longer by his side. In the regular season, Collins ranked just 17th in targets per game (8.5) but still managed to rank fourth in receiving yards per game (88). He's a big play waiting to happen at any moment, and that's what we saw in the Wild Card Round. Collins caught 7 of his 8 targets for 122 yards and 1 touchdown. Collins is the clear best play on the Texans, as Houston projects to be playing from behind and throwing a lot.

Dalton Schultz's ($3,500) role has been uninspiring even without Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell in the lineup, but that has resulted in an affordable salary. The Texans project to have to throw a lot, and the Chiefs defense allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game (12.5) to the tight end position this season. Schultz is in consideration in tournaments.

Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes II ($6,000) ranks in the regular season: 11th in passing yards per game (245.5) and 10th in pass touchdowns per game (1.6). He leads a Chiefs offense that ranks third in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF) and second in Pas Rate Over Expected (PROE). The matchup is tough but this is the best player in football, he'll be low-owned, and he's priced as just the sixth most expensive quarterback this week. If making one lineup, don't play Mahomes. But if making multiple tournament lineups, have at least a bit of exposure.

It's extremely tough to predict how the backfield rotation will play out this week in a tough matchup between Isiah Pacheco ($5,500), Kareem Hunt ($5,000), and Samaje Perine ($4,300). There are a lot of solid running back plays on this slate. Don't wade into these murky waters. Fade.

Xavier Worthy's ($5,200) last three games in the regular season: 11 targets and 3 carries for 76 total yards and 1 touchdown, 11 targets and 3 carries for 75 total yards and 1 touchdown, and 9 targets and 2 carries for 89 yards and 1 touchdown. Worthy has the juice and has grown within the Chiefs' offense at the end of the season, similar to what we saw with Rashee Rice last year. Worthy is underpriced and a solid play.

DeAndre Hopkins ($4,700) was limited in the regular season for draft capital reasons. The Chiefs sent Tennessee a conditional fifth-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft that would've become a fourth-rounder if he played more than 60% of the Chiefs' offensive snaps. Kansas City has locked in the more beneficial draft capital and now their season officially begins. Hopkins projects to play more in the playoffs, has an affordable $4,200 price tag, and will be low-owned. He's an exciting large-field tournament play.

Marquise Brown ($4,200) returned in Week 16, played in two games and has now had about three weeks to rest up and get ready for the playoffs. Brown saw eight targets in Week 16 on only 27% of the offensive snaps and seven in Week 17 on just 40%. Brown is an exciting play, but he is projected to be heavily owned, making him a better play in smaller field tournaments.

Travis Kelce's ($5,000) ranks at the tight end position in the regular season: third in targets (131), third in receptions (97), and fifth in receiving yards (823). Travis Kelce's 2023 postseason in four games: 32 receptions on 37 targets for 355 yards and 3 touchdowns. Kelce's season essentially begins now. He's the best tight end play on the slate.

The Chiefs D/ST ($3,600) is in a great spot. C.J. Stroud was sacked the second-most times in the regular season (52). The Chiefs are 8.5-point home favorites.

Commanders at Lions

• Commanders:
  • Offensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play: 10th
    • Dropback EPA: 9th
    • Rush EPA: 7th
    • Points per game: 5th (28.5)
    • Yards per game: 7th (369.6)
  • Defensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 10th
    • Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 4th
    • Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 21st
    • Points per game allowed: 18th (23)
    • Yards per game allowed: 13th (326.9)
  • Point Differential Ranking: 10th (+94) 

• Lions:
  • Offensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play: 3rd
    • Dropback EPA: 4th
    • Rush EPA: 4th
    • Points per game: 1st (33.2)
    • Yards per game: 2nd (409.5)
  • Defensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 17th
    • Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 18th
    • Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 16th
    • Points per game allowed: 7th (20.1)
    • Yards per game allowed: 20th (342.4)
  • Point Differential Ranking: 1st (+222)

This game has the highest Over/Under of the week, an insane 55.5 points. This is a target game.

Washington Commanders

Jayden Daniels ($7,000) ranked tenth in pass touchdowns per game (1.6) and led a Commanders offense that ranked 11th in EDPF and ninth in PROE in the regular season. A dual-threat talent aided by 891 rushing yards and 6 rushing touchdowns, Daniels ranked fifth at the quarterback position in DraftKings points per game (22.9) during the regular season. He just won his first-ever playoff start on the road and showed extreme poise while doing so. Daniels has a decent matchup against a Lions defense that ranks middle of the pack in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed and he projects to be significantly pushed on the road with arguably the league's best offense on the other side. Dan Quinn keeps his foot on the gas on fourth down, and that shouldn't change in this one. Daniels has a very high upside.

Austin Ekeler ($5,100) is a fantastic tournament play and could be the skeleton key. He returned from a lengthy absence due to a concussion in Week 18 and shook off the rust. Then he saw 12 opportunities, including four targets in the Wild Card Round. He also easily could've had another reception, but a completed screen pass to him was recorded as a rush instead. This game projects to be incredible for fantasy, and the Commanders project to be playing from behind. This setup couldn't be any better for Ekeler, especially with the Commanders relying on questionable wide receiver talents behind Terry McLaurin.

Terry McLaurin ($6,300) finished the regular season ranked 15th in receiving yards (1,096) and second in receiving touchdowns (13). He kept balling in the Wild Card Round, catching 7 of 10 targets for 89 yards and 1 touchdown. He's the Commanders' alpha in the passing attack and is one of the best wide receiver plays of the week in a bananas fantasy game.

Olamide Zaccheaus ($4,300) finished the regular season hot. His totals over his last three regular-season games: 22 targets, 15 receptions, 206 receiving yards, and 3 touchdowns. He's priced at just $4,300 and will be extremely low-owned after a quiet Wild Card Round, with most rostering secondary Commanders' pieces chasing Dyami Brown.

Dyami Brown's ($3,900) offensive snap percentages in three healthy games without Noah Brown: 78%, 66%, and 62%. He caught all five of his targets for 89 yards and 1 touchdown last week.

Zach Ertz ($4,000) is a reliable veteran target who posted two straight strong games to end the regular season. His totals over those two contests: 12 targets, 11 catches, 116 receiving yards, and 3 touchdowns. Ertz was quiet in the Wild Card Round but projects to be needed more in this fantasy bonanza game.

Detroit Lions

Jared Goff ($6,300) ranks second in passing yards per game (274.9) and fourth in pass touchdowns per game (2.3) and leads a Lions offense that ranks third in EPA/Play. This game has an incredible 55.5-point Over/Under, and the Lions have an insanely high 32.5-point Implied Team Total. Ben Johnson is an incredible offensive mind, but put some respect on Goff's name. He's been incredible this season.

Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,700) ranks just 17th in opportunities per game (17.8) but ranks third in total yards per game (109.9) and first in total touchdowns (20). David Montgomery's return should not shy you away from Gibbs at all. The Lions are 9.5-point home favorites in an incredible fantasy game, and Gibbs gets a great matchup against a Commanders defense that ranked 21st in Rush EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17.

David Montgomery's ($5,700) health won't be fully known until we see him on the field this weekend, but he did practice in full on Wednesday. He'll be low-owned, he's $2,000 cheaper than Jahmyr Gibbs, and he scored 12 touchdowns in 14 games this season. He's a solid large-field tournament play.

It's go-time, and one can easily argue Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,200) is the heart and soul of the Lions' offense. He turned in another incredible season, ranking tenth in targets (141), second in receptions (115), fifth in receiving yards (1,263), and third in receiving touchdowns (12). It's very hard to imagine St. Brown not getting there at home in this incredible fantasy game.

Jameson Williams' ($6,100) targets over his past seven games: 7, 7, 8, 5, 7, 8, and 9. Williams is an extreme talent and has become a consistent part of this high-octane Lions' offense this year. He finished the regular season 24th in receiving yards (1,001). It wouldn't be surprising at all to see Williams pop multiple big plays in this one.

This is the kind of bonkers fantasy game that upgrades the ceilings of secondary and tertiary offensive pieces, putting Tim Patrick ($3,700) in play in large-field tournaments. Patrick has played on over 50% of the offensive snaps in six straight games.

Sam LaPorta ($4,200) ranked third in DraftKings points per game (13.8) at the tight end position as a rookie and came on strong to end this season. LaPorta's targets in his past five games: 7, 10, 7, 8, and 7. He played on 100% of the offensive snaps in a must-win game to land the number one seed in Week 18.