Cracking DraftKings: Conference Championships

Conference Championship Games

• • Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles - Over/Under 47.5 - Spread Eagles -6.5
  • Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs - Over/Under 47.5 - Spread Chiefs -1.5

Commanders at Eagles

• Commanders:
  • Offensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play: 10th
    • Dropback EPA: 9th
    • Rush EPA: 7th
    • Points per game: 5th (28.5)
    • Yards per game: 7th (369.6)
  • Defensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 10th
    • Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 4th
    • Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 21st
    • Points per game allowed: 18th (23)
    • Yards per game allowed: 13th (326.9)
  • Point Differential Ranking: 10th (+94) 

• Eagles:
  • Offensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play: 7th
    • Dropback EPA: 12th
    • Rush EPA: 2nd
    • Points per game: 7th (27.2)
    • Yards per game: 8th (367.2)
  • Defensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 1st
    • Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 2nd
    • Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 1st
    • Points per game allowed: 2nd (17.8)
    • Yards per game allowed: 1st (278.4)
  • Point Differential Ranking: 2nd (+160)

Washington Commanders

Jayden Daniels ($7,000) ranked tenth in pass touchdowns per game (1.6) and led a Commanders offense that ranked 11th in EDPF and ninth in PROE in the regular season. A dual-threat talent aided by 891 rushing yards and 6 rushing touchdowns, Daniels ranked fifth at the quarterback position in DraftKings points per game (22.9) during the regular season. He has won his first two playoff starts on the road and has shown extreme poise. This is not the best week to play him, as he's on the road against arguably the best defense in the NFL. It is worth noting, though, that he threw for 258 yards and 5 touchdowns and rushed for 81 yards against this defense on December 22nd.

Austin Ekeler ($5,300) is a fantastic tournament play and could be the skeleton key. He returned from a lengthy absence due to a concussion in Week 18 and shook off the rust. Then he saw 12 opportunities, including four targets in the Wild Card Round, and 10 opportunities, including four targets that turned into 88 total yards in the Divisional Round. The Eagles' defense is very tough to traditionally run on, so look for Jayden Daniels to use his legs but also find Ekeler in the receiving game five-plus times in this one.

Terry McLaurin ($6,700) finished the regular season ranked 15th in receiving yards (1,096) and second in receiving touchdowns (13). He's continued to ball in the playoffs. He caught 7 of 10 targets for 89 yards and 1 touchdown in the Wild Card Round and caught 4 of 6 targets for 87 yards and 1 touchdown in the Divisional Round. He's the Commanders' alpha in the passing attack and did put up 5 for 60 and a touchdown on 6 targets against the Eagles on December 22nd.

Dyami Brown's ($4,400) offensive snap percentages in four healthy games without Noah Brown: 78%, 66%, 62%, and 83%. He caught all five of his targets for 89 yards and 1 touchdown in the Wild Card Round and put up 6 for 98 on 8 targets in the Divisional Round.

Zach Ertz ($4,300) is a reliable veteran target who posted two straight strong games to end the regular season. His totals over those two contests: 12 targets, 11 catches, 116 receiving yards, and 3 touchdowns. Ertz caught another touchdown in the Divisional Round. He's an important piece of Washington's red zone offense.

Washington D/ST (2,700) has a chance if they can minimize Saquon Barkley in any way. Jalen Hurts has only thrown for over 200 yards once over his past six healthy games. He just took seven sacks last week and enters this game at less than 100% after suffering a knee injury last week.

Philadelphia Eagles

Jalen Hurts ($6,500) ran for 14 touchdowns in the regular season, which ranked ninth-best in the entire league in total touchdowns. He ran for another one in the Divisional Round. He's an exciting dual-threat and one of the best fantasy quarterbacks we've seen over the past few seasons. He's playing at home against a Commanders defense that ranked 21st in Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17 in the regular season. An important caveat, though, is that Hurts almost certainly won't be playing at 100% after suffering a knee injury last week.

Saquon Barkley's ($8,600) regular season ranks: led the NFL in opportunities per game (24.3) and total yards per game (142.7) and ranked sixth in total touchdowns (15). Saquon surpassed that opportunity average in the Wild Card Round, turning 27 chances into 123 total yards. He then turned it all the way to 100 in the Divisional Round, turning 30 total touches into 232 total yards and 2 touchdowns. The Eagles are 6.5-point home favorites. Barkley is a free square against a Commanders defense ranked 21st in Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17 in the regular season.

A.J. Brown ($6,800) is a strong tournament play thanks to recency bias since he's only caught three passes for 24 yards in two playoff games the past two weeks. His regular season ranks: just 31st in targets per game (7.5) but fifth in receiving yards per game (83). Brown is an elite talent and could go beast mode at any moment, which is nice in tournaments at home against an average Commanders pass defense.

DeVonta Smith's ($5,800) price tag is palatable. He finished the regular season on a heater. Smith went over 100 receiving yards in two of his past four regular season games and scored four touchdowns over that stretch. He posted a respectable four receptions for 55 yards in the Wild Card Round despite Jalen Hurts only throwing for 131 yards. At home against an average Commanders pass defense, it feels likely at least one of A.J. Brown or Smith post a strong game here.

Dallas Goedert ($4,500) returned from a four-game absence in Week 18, and the Eagles made it clear they wanted to shake off Goedert's rust. He saw six targets and caught four passes for 55 yards on only 13 snaps played. It appears to have worked as Goedert then caught 4 of 6 targets for 47 yards and 1 touchdown in the Wild Card Round and all four of his targets for 56 yards in the Divisional Round. Goedert is a strong play as this tight end slate this week essentially equates to paying up for Travis Kelce or rolling with Goedert at a more affordable price.

Eagles D/ST ($3,300) is arguably the best unit in the NFL. They're 6.5-point home favorites.