Slate Overview- Week 17 Christmas Day Thoughts
First and foremost, I hope everyone has a Merry Christmas and a Happy Hannukah. This is essentially the same slate as what we saw on Saturday of Week 16, as it is the same four teams but with different matchups. It is the same problem we discussed in Week 16, where you have committee running backs, elite defenses, and passing games that are fairly narrow regarding players you feel comfortable targeting.
So, how should you approach this slate? This week is all about the key decision points of three players. Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, and Nico Collins are the clear top three at their respective positions. Most lineups will have two of the three, as that is all you’ll be able to afford without going extremely thin at other positions. The key across all of these short slates is ensuring that your lineups are correlated. For example, Lamar Jackson and Nico Collins are correlated in a shootout-type game, while Nico Collins and Derrick Henry are correlated in a game script where the Ravens get out to an early lead with Henry, and the Texans are forced to take a pass-heavy approach in a comeback. What you should likely avoid is a Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry stack. Because Henry has little involvement in the passing game, the production of one player ultimately hurts the other as it takes away opportunities from them. In a cash game format, it’s fine as it raises your floor, but in a GPP, you’re targeting the upside.
Speaking of cash games, you probably shouldn’t play cash games on this slate. This doesn’t seem to be getting the casual play that we see from Thanksgiving, where you have a lot of people jumping in head-to-head or 50/50. The people that are playing in Week 17 cash games are likely not going to give you an edge over the field, while the GPP’s would be the spot that most of the more casual players will jump in and see if they can take a chance to win a significant amount of money on Christmas, thinking that somehow luck is more on their side because of the holiday.
Finally, this is a slate you’re likely going to want to play just two running backs on. Get creative with four wide receivers or even two tight ends if you need to find salary relief. The running backs are all in unfavorable matchups this week with two of the defenses being the two best run defenses in the NFL.
Key Injuries for Week 17
- Tank Dell has been ruled out for the season with a significant knee injury suffered in Week 16.
- George Pickens is set to return this week after missing the last two games with a hamstring injury.
- Zay Flowers is questionable this week with a shoulder injury. This one seems like it’s going to be a true game-time decision. If he’s unable to go, the Ravens have already ruled Nelson Agholor out once again this week, so we’d be looking at Tylan Wallace getting a significant upgrade to fill Flowers's spot while Devontez Walker could see a minor increase in the role.
- Justice Hill has been ruled out for Baltimore. This should help Derrick Henry’s upside, as Henry saw a season-high 74% of snaps last week with Hill leaving early.
- John Metchie will play this week after missing Week 16. If you’re looking for a cheap play he could be seeing a role increase due to the Tank Dell injury.
Quarterback:
Lamar Jackson (FanDuel GPP, DraftKings GPP)
In terms of upside, no quarterback can come close to Lamar Jackson on this slate. This really comes down to lineup construction, as he’s going to be the most popular quarterback on this slate. Facing a Houston defense that is a neutral matchup, Jackson should be able to leverage his rushing upside along with a surge in passing upside, as he’s now thrown for 10 touchdowns over his last three games. The only question you really need to ask yourself when building your lineup is whether to look at Derrick Henry or Jackson. Both players offer a significant upside compared to the rest of their positions. If you’re filling out just one lineup, looking at Lamar over Henry is likely the way to go. While Henry likely has more upside compared to his position, the odds that he actually achieves that ceiling game this week are fairly low compared to the more realistic benefit that you’ll get from the $1,500-$2,000 of spending up to Jackson over the other quarterbacks on this slate.
Patrick Mahomes II (FanDuel GPP, DraftKings GPP)
This is a bit of a narrative, but Christmas Day seems like the type of thing that would get the Chiefs motivated after a season where they’ve gone through the motions and are still 14-1. The Chiefs have a knack for winning close games, as 11 of their 14 wins have come in one-score games. The thinking here is that the way to beat Pittsburgh is to exploit their corners. The Steelers will be without Joey Porter Jr. and will be starting James Pierre at corner. Pierre has started the last two games and has been a major liability as three wide receivers have topped 100 yards over the last two games against Pittsburgh. Mahomes’ ankle did not seem to be bothering his mobility last week, as he was still able to run for 33 yards and a touchdown. With his full complement of receivers back, this is a dangerous offense that looks to prepare for another Super Bowl run.
Running Back:
Jaylen Warren (FanDuel GPP, DraftKings GPP)
After facing Baltimore last week, Pittsburgh now has to face the only run defense better than Baltimore, which is Kansas City this week. The Chiefs have only allowed one running back to top 70 yards this season, which was Jerome Ford, who needed a 62-yard run to get to his 84 yards, which was a season-high allowed for the Chiefs. The thinking here once again for Warren over Najee Harris is similar to last week's analysis. It seems highly improbable that you’ll be able to run up the middle with Harris this week against this Chiefs defense, so leveraging Warren through both off-tackle runs as well as through the passing game seems to be the approach that has any chance of success. Warren caught five passes last week against Baltimore, as they used him as an extension of the run game to create more favorable spacing.
Kareem Hunt (FanDuel GPP, DraftKings GPP)
The Chiefs appear set on splitting carries between both Pacheco and Hunt for the remainder of the season, as Hunt had 11 carries to Pacheco’s nine last week. Now, with just three days of rest between games, the question is how will the Chiefs allocate their carries between the two running backs. It seems likely that Hunt would receive the bulk of the work for a couple of different reasons. First and foremost, he’s more replaceable than Pacheco, as the Chiefs could likely get 80% of Hunt’s production from Samaje Perine. With Pacheco’s injury history this season, are they really going to give him a significant workload with three games in 11 days? It seems unlikely for a 14-1 team to take that chance this week. The second reason is that Hunt is seeing all of the red zone work. Over the last two games, Hunt has had five red zone opportunities compared to Pacheco, which has had just one.
Derrick Henry (FanDuel GPP, DraftKings GPP)
None of the running backs on this slate have a favorable matchup, but Henry is largely matchup-proof, which none of the other running backs on this slate can say. Houston has allowed three 100-yard games and did look a little shaky without their elite run-stopper Azeez Al-Shaiir, who remains suspended for one more week. Kareem Hunt was able to amass 15.9 DraftKings points last week on just 13 touches, so if Baltimore is able to commit to the run, Henry could have a massive advantage over the other running backs who are expected to struggle. Houston has mostly been great this season against the run, allowing the 5th-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs, but they have allowed three 100-yard performances this season to Tony Pollard, Aaron Jones, and Jonathan Taylor.
Fade: Joe Mixon
This is basically a rinse-and-repeat fade from last week’s Saturday slate. Mixon is the type of player that you play in the great matchups and avoid in the difficult ones. Mixon has topped 100 yards in 7 of his 12 games this season. However, he’s faced one of the most favorable running back matchup schedules in the NFL. When facing elite run defenses, he’s been completely eliminated. This week, he has to face one of the league’s best-run defenses in Baltimore, which should make life extremely difficult for Joe Mixon, especially in between the tackles, as the Baltimore defensive line is likely going to overwhelm Houston’s interior of their offensive line as the Texans will be without right guard Shaq Mason while rookie right tackle Blake Fisher continues to struggle.
Wide Receiver
Nico Collins (FanDuel GPP, DraftKings GPP)
With Tank Dell’s injury, Nico Collins needs to be strongly considered for your lineup this week. Baltimore has been torched by wide receivers for most of the season as they’re allowing the second-most fantasy points to the position and have allowed some of the biggest games of the year to the number-one receiver. Ja’Marr Chase has over 100 DraftKings points in his two meetings this season against Baltimore, while Tee Higgins, Davante Adams, Cedric Tillman, Rashee Rice, Terry McLaurin, and Courtland Sutton all had big games against this defense. When we spend up on these short slates, we’re looking at the upside compared to the rest of the position. Collins has a clear advantage with his four 100+ yard games this season, along with seeing a volume upgrade due to the Dell injury.
Xavier Worthy (FanDuel GPP, DraftKings GPP)
The Chiefs are starting to incorporate Xavier Worthy into their offense in a big way. Over the last six games, Worthy has at least 40 yards in every game, but over the last two is where it is intriguing as he has 11 targets in each of his last two games. Worth also leads the receivers in red zone targets with 22 on the year, including six last week. For reference, this is second on the team, just behind Travis Kelce, who has 23 red zone targets. Conceptually, it makes sense to get a speedster the ball in space, especially when the Chiefs could be dealing with having to get the ball out quickly due to the pass rush of Pittsburgh led by T.J. Watt and with left tackle D.J. Humphries out for this game.
George Pickens (FanDuel GPP, DraftKings GPP)
A lot of people will be making a critical decision between Zay Flowers and George Pickens this week. There are a few reasons to target Pickens over Flowers, but none of them are more important than health. Flowers popped up on the injury report after last week’s game, and it seems likely that he’s going to play, but it is going to be less than 100%. There are plenty of people who simply play a player if they’re active, and predicting how an injury will impact a performance can be difficult. However, this seems like one that is not great, as Flowers was wearing a sling earlier this week with a shoulder injury. The second reason to target Pickens is that the Steelers' options in this game are relatively limited. Facing the league’s best run defense, it seems unlikely that Pittsburgh will be able to run the ball this week, which will force them into a pass-heavy game plan. At receiver, their options are extremely limited, as Calvin Austin III is the only other receiver who has made any consistent impact for Pittsburgh. Pickens provides that true number-one receiver for the Steelers, as he has 70 yards or more in five of his last six games. With Chamarri Conner out for Kansas City, this could open the door for Pickens to be lined up against Joshua Williams for at least part of the game, which would be a favorable matchup for Pickens.
Other Receiving Options
John Metchie III(DraftKings and FanDuel GPP)
Hollywood Brown (DraftKings and FanDuel GPP)
Calvin Austin (DraftKings and FanDuel GPP)
Tylan Wallace (Deep GPP play)
Tight End
Mark Andrews (FanDuel GPP, DraftKings GPP)
All Mark Andrews does these days is score touchdowns. Andrews has now scored a touchdown in four straight games and five of his last six. After a very slow start to the season, as he recovered from his injury last season, Andrews is now the sixth-highest-scoring tight end on the season and leads all tight ends with nine touchdowns. With Zay Flowers dealing with a shoulder injury, Andrews is the perfect pairing for a Lamar Jackson stack this week.
Travis Kelce (FanDuel GPP Only)
I admittedly can’t quit Travis Kelce. This is a player who has failed to top 50 yards in each of his last three games, has not scored a touchdown in the last six games, and the only thing my brain can think about is that he is only $300 more expensive on FanDuel than Mark Andrews. Far too often, we’ve written off Kelce, only for him to have the slate-breaking multi-touchdown game. On DraftKings, he’s far too expensive as the price differential between him and Andrews is $1,000, but on FanDuel at just $6,500, he’s affordable enough to play him, especially considering Andrews will be a more popular player.
Dalton Schultz (FanDuel GPP, DraftKings GPP)
While we haven’t seen consistency for Dalton Schultz, we’ve seen a recent surge in usage, as he now has 45 yards or more in two of his last three games while scoring a touchdown in two of his last three as well. This is a player who now should be forced into a bigger role as Tank Dell is out the remainder of the year and should force some more underneath routes to Schultz that otherwise would have gone to Dell out of the slot. While he’s much cheaper on FanDuel, he is a nice pivot off of Mark Andrews this week and will go partially overlooked as he’s just $200 cheaper than him on DraftKings.
